The Ottawa Senators roll into PPG Paints Arena riding a two-game winning streak and clutching the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, while Sidney Crosby's Pittsburgh Penguins have dropped their last two contests and find themselves near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division.

The defensive prowess of the Senators, allowing just 2.87 goals per game with Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen anchoring the blue line, could prove decisive against a Penguins squad that's surrendered a concerning 17 goals in their past three outings.

Sunday's clash between these two teams heading in opposite directions will ultimately come down to whether the home team Penguins can finally shore up their defensive woes or if the away team Senators can continue their march toward playoff security.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Senators a 80% chance of defeating the Penguins.

Ottawa Senators: 80% win probability

  • Strong offensive output (211 goals scored this season)
  • Better position in standings (7th in Eastern Conference with 83 points)
  • Excellent recent form with three wins in their last five games (WWLWL)

Pittsburgh Penguins: 20% win probability

  • Poor defensive record (274 goals against, among the worst in the conference)
  • Struggling recent form with four losses in their last five games (LLLWL)
  • Lower points total despite playing more games (69 points in 74 games compared to Ottawa's 83 in 72)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators odds

Here are the current odds for the NHL matchup between the Ottawa Senators visiting the Pittsburgh Penguins at home on Sunday, March 30.

Pittsburgh PenguinsOttawa Senators
Moneyline+120 (via bet365 US)-132 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators preview

The Senators roll into PPG Paints Arena riding a two-game winning streak and looking to cement their grip on the Eastern Conference's top wild card spot, while the struggling Penguins are simply playing out the string after dropping their last two contests, including a brutal 7-3 beatdown by Buffalo.

The goaltending battle could tell the story Sunday afternoon, with Ottawa's Anton Forsberg (.897 save percentage) facing a Pens offense that, outside of Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell, has struggled to find the net consistently all season.

Thomas Chabot anchors a rock-solid Senators defense that's surrendered just five goals in their last two games and sits among the league's better units allowing only 2.87 goals per game.

Pittsburgh's defensive woes have been their undoing all year, with Kris Letang and Matt Grzelcyk providing the only reliable presence on a unit that's been leaking goals like a sieve – surrendering a whopping 17 in their last three games.

Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson have powered Ottawa's attack with a combined 41 goals, though creating secondary scoring remains a challenge for a team ranked 19th in league scoring.

The Penguins' playoff hopes are essentially dead in the water, but Crosby still brings it every night – he and Rakell have tallied 58 goals and 85 assists between them this season.

Don't expect a barnburner at PPG Paints, as both squads average identical 2.92 goals per game, with Ottawa's defensive edge likely giving them the advantage despite being the road team.

Honestly, this one feels like a classic case of a hungry playoff contender against a team playing out the string, and I'd be shocked if the Senators don't take care of business against a Penguins squad that seems to have already mentally checked out.

Key stats

  • 1
    Ottawa sits 7th in the Eastern Conference with 83 points while Pittsburgh ranks 14th with 69 points
  • 2
    The Senators (39-28-5) have a much better win-loss record compared to the Penguins (29-34-11)
  • 3
    Ottawa has won 3 of their last 5 games (WWLWL) while Pittsburgh has lost 4 of their last 5 (LLLWL)
  • 4
    The Senators have a positive goal difference (+3) while the Penguins have a significant negative goal difference (-57)

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators form

Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Latest matches
L
L
L
W
L
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Mar 27, 2025
Buffalo Sabres7:3Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 25, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning6:1Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 23, 2025
Florida Panthers4:3Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 21, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets3:6Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 18, 2025
New York Islanders4:2Pittsburgh Penguins
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators
Latest matches
D
W
L
W
L
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
Mar 29, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets0:0Ottawa Senators
Mar 27, 2025
Detroit Red Wings3:4Ottawa Senators
Mar 25, 2025
Buffalo Sabres3:2Ottawa Senators
Mar 22, 2025
New Jersey Devils2:3Ottawa Senators
Mar 20, 2025
Colorado Avalanche5:1Ottawa Senators

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators head to head

Pittsburgh Penguins

17%

Ottawa Senators

83%

Jan 11, 2025

Pittsburgh Penguins

0 : 5

Ottawa Senators

Dec 15, 2024

Ottawa Senators

3 : 2

Pittsburgh Penguins

Sep 29, 2024

Ottawa Senators

2 : 5

Pittsburgh Penguins

Mar 12, 2024

Ottawa Senators

2 : 1

Pittsburgh Penguins

Dec 24, 2023

Ottawa Senators

5 : 4

Pittsburgh Penguins

Oct 28, 2023

Pittsburgh Penguins

2 : 5

Ottawa Senators