The red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning roll into UBS Arena Tuesday night carrying the league's second-best offense (3.59 goals per game) and the momentum of three straight victories, while the Islanders find themselves in a five-game tailspin that's threatening to sink their playoff hopes.

Tampa's dynamic duo of Kucherov and Hagel (190 combined points) face a typically stingy but recently leaky Islanders defense that's surrendered 24 goals during their current losing streak.

The star-studded Lightning squad will look to extend their Atlantic Division dominance when the struggling New York Islanders host the surging Tampa Bay Lightning in what could be a season-defining matchup for both clubs.

New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?

For tonight's New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 80% chance of defeating the Isles.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 80% win probability

  • Outstanding offensive production (264 goals scored, 4th best in the league)
  • Strong point total with 91 points in 73 games, tied for 4th in the East
  • Recent momentum with three wins in their last five games (WWWLL)

New York Islanders: 20% win probability

  • Poor recent form with five consecutive losses (LLLLL)
  • Defensive struggles (225 goals allowed, significantly more than Tampa's 195)
  • Middling offensive output (202 goals scored) compared to Tampa's explosive attack (264 goals)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

Here are the latest odds for the NHL clash between the New York Islanders, playing at home, and the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday, April 01.

New York IslandersTampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline+145 (via bet365 US)-170 (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

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New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview

The red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning bring their three-game winning streak and explosive offense (3.59 goals per game) to UBS Arena Tuesday night where they'll face a struggling Islanders squad that's dropped five straight contests.

Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel have been lighting up the scoreboard for Tampa, combining for a ridiculous 66 goals and 124 assists this season, while goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a brick wall with a sparkling .921 save percentage.

The Islanders' playoff hopes have all but evaporated during their recent slide, with a defensive collapse that's seen them surrender 24 goals in their last five games despite Ilya Sorokin's best efforts between the pipes.

Bo Horvat and Anders Lee remain the lone bright spots in New York's anemic offense that's managed just 2.74 goals per game, putting enormous pressure on a defense that simply hasn't delivered lately.

These teams met recently with Tampa securing a 5-3 victory, suggesting the Lightning's high-powered attack could feast against an Islanders team that's looked completely lost in its own end.

While the Isles might find occasional success against Tampa's defense (allowing 2.64 goals per game), expect Victor Hedman to continue orchestrating the Lightning offense from the blue line while shutting things down defensively.

Don't be shocked if this turns into a high-scoring affair with both teams finding the net multiple times, though Tampa clearly has the edge given their current form and firepower.

Looking at the bigger picture, this matchup perfectly illustrates two teams heading in opposite directions - Tampa Bay solidifying their playoff position while the Islanders play out what's become a forgettable season.

Key stats

  • 1
    Tampa Bay Lightning sits 4th in the Eastern Conference with 91 points while the Islanders are struggling at 12th with 74 points
  • 2
    The Lightning have a strong goal differential of +69 compared to the Islanders' negative -23
  • 3
    Tampa Bay shows inconsistent recent form (WWWLL) while New York is on a concerning five-game losing streak (LLLLL)
  • 4
    The Lightning have scored 264 goals this season (3.62 per game) versus the Islanders' 202 goals (2.77 per game)

New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form

New York Islanders
New York Islanders
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
L
Victories
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
5/5 (100%)
Mar 30, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes6:4New York Islanders
Mar 29, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning5:3New York Islanders
Mar 26, 2025
Vancouver Canucks5:2New York Islanders
Mar 24, 2025
Columbus Blue Jackets4:3New York Islanders
Mar 22, 2025
Calgary Flames4:3New York Islanders
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Latest matches
W
W
W
L
L
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
Mar 29, 2025
New York Islanders3:5Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 27, 2025
Utah Hockey Club0:8Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 25, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins1:6Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 24, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights4:2Tampa Bay Lightning
Mar 22, 2025
Utah Hockey Club6:4Tampa Bay Lightning

New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head

New York Islanders

50%

Tampa Bay Lightning

50%

Mar 29, 2025

Tampa Bay Lightning

5 : 3

New York Islanders

Feb 2, 2025

Tampa Bay Lightning

2 : 3

New York Islanders

Mar 30, 2024

Tampa Bay Lightning

4 : 1

New York Islanders

Feb 24, 2024

New York Islanders

2 : 4

Tampa Bay Lightning

Feb 9, 2024

New York Islanders

6 : 2

Tampa Bay Lightning

Apr 6, 2023

New York Islanders

6 : 1

Tampa Bay Lightning