NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/01/2025

The Montreal Canadiens have been absolutely dominant against the Florida Panthers this season, winning all three previous meetings by a combined score of 11-3. Sunday's matchup ended with a 4-2 Montreal victory, and Tuesday's rematch at Bell Centre has a little extra spice after Florida defenseman Niko Mikkola took a controversial slapshot in the dying seconds of their last game, nearly hitting multiple Canadiens players and causing a heated scrum.

Montreal has much more at stake in this one, fighting for their playoff lives while holding onto the final wild card position in the Eastern Conference. Their home crowd will be electric following Sunday's incident, and they've been playing inspired hockey lately, going 5-1 in their last six home games. The Panthers, while still a powerhouse, haven't been as sharp recently, winning just five of their last ten contests.

The Canadiens' offense has come alive, averaging 3.4 goals in their last ten games. They'll have additional motivation after the end-of-game incident on Sunday, and Florida will be playing without top defenseman Aaron Ekblad, which significantly weakens their blueline. Montreal has proven they can handle Florida's attack, and even if they can't pull off another outright win, keeping it within a goal seems very realistic.

What makes this bet particularly compelling is that multiple expert sources are recommending this play. Pickswise specifically recommends Montreal +1.5 at -160 odds, noting it's playable all the way to -180. Winners and Whiners also highlights Montreal's home success and season-long dominance over Florida as key factors supporting this puck line play.

There's always risk when betting against a team as talented as Florida, who sit near the top of the Atlantic Division standings. However, Montreal has demonstrated they have Florida's number this season, and with the additional emotional component from Sunday's game, the home crowd advantage, and Florida's missing defensive piece, all signs point to the Canadiens at least keeping this game close. The +1.5 puck line offers excellent value for a team that's already beaten this opponent three straight times.

The Boston Bruins are in serious trouble, having lost eight consecutive games heading into Tuesday's matchup against the Washington Capitals. Boston's offensive woes have been particularly concerning - they've been held to two goals or fewer in seven straight games, which bodes poorly against a Washington team boasting the NHL's highest-scoring offense at 3.63 goals per game.

Washington isn't without their own recent struggles, having dropped three straight, including an uncharacteristic 8-goal allowance against Buffalo on Sunday. However, that marked the first time all season that the Capitals have allowed 5+ goals in a game - a testament to their otherwise solid defensive structure. Their road record is remarkable at 23-9-3, one of the best away marks in the NHL this season.

The Capitals' offensive firepower led by Alex Ovechkin should feast against a Bruins team that appears completely deflated. Boston seems to have lost its identity during this eight-game skid, and facing a high-powered Washington attack is the last thing they need right now. The Capitals have every incentive to get back on track with the playoffs approaching, and Boston presents the perfect opportunity.

Pickswise specifically recommends the Capitals in regulation at -140 odds (playable to -145), noting that Washington should be able to rebound defensively against a Boston team that's struggling to find the back of the net. Winners and Whiners also backs the Capitals, highlighting that Washington has been excellent on the road all season and should take advantage of Boston's scoring woes.

While there's always the risk of a desperate team like Boston finding their game when least expected, the current form of both teams strongly suggests the Capitals should handle this matchup. Washington's offensive weapons are simply too much for the slumping Bruins to contain, and Boston's inability to score goals makes it unlikely they'll keep pace with the Capitals. All factors considered, Washington should secure a victory within regulation time, making this 3-way moneyline bet a strong play.

While the majority of expert picks are pointing toward the Ottawa Senators as the moneyline favorite, there's compelling value in taking the Buffalo Sabres on the puck line. Despite Buffalo's struggles this season, sitting last in the Eastern Conference, they've shown they can keep games close, and the puck line offers protection even if they can't pull off the outright upset.

Ottawa currently holds the first Eastern Conference Wild Card spot and has been playing better hockey, winning 9 of their last 13 games. However, the gap between these teams might not be as wide as their standings positions suggest. Buffalo's goaltending situation with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (3.23 GAA, .885 SV%) is concerning, but they've demonstrated they can compete on most nights despite their poor overall record.

What makes this bet especially intriguing is that Dimers' analytics model actually gives Buffalo a 62.2% probability of covering the +1.5 puck line, indicating a 3.0% edge at the current odds. This analytical backing suggests the market may be undervaluing Buffalo's ability to keep this game within one goal. While the Senators have the home-ice advantage and the better recent form, the puck line gives bettors a significant cushion.

The head-to-head history between these teams this season has been tight, with three previous matchups producing a mix of results. Ottawa's solid goaltending from Linus Ullmark (2.76 GAA, .909 SV%) gives them an edge, but Buffalo has nothing to lose at this point in the season. Teams playing without pressure sometimes perform better than expected, and the Sabres could very well surprise in this divisional matchup.

While backing a team that's essentially eliminated from playoff contention comes with obvious risks, the +1.5 puck line offers enough protection to make this a value play. Even if Ottawa prevails as expected, Buffalo keeping it within a goal is entirely plausible. Several analytical models suggest this line is slightly mispriced, giving Buffalo backers an opportunity to capitalize on what appears to be a modest market inefficiency on Tuesday night.

The Tampa Bay Lightning roll into Tuesday's game against the New York Islanders with strong momentum, riding a three-game winning streak while the Islanders are spiraling with an 0-3-2 record in their last five contests. That brutal stretch for New York includes surrendering a whopping 24 goals against, showing serious defensive vulnerabilities that Tampa Bay's potent offense should be able to exploit.

These teams met recently, with Tampa Bay securing a convincing victory, and all signs point to history repeating itself at UBS Arena. The Islanders are desperately fighting for a playoff spot, but their recent form suggests they're fading at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay, with their veteran-laden roster, has their sights set on catching the Panthers for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and understands the importance of banking points against struggling opponents.

Tampa Bay's depth and offensive capability simply outclass what the Islanders can muster right now. New York's defensive woes have been particularly alarming - surrendering nearly five goals per game over their last five outings. The Lightning, with their championship pedigree and experienced core, know exactly how to take advantage of teams in disarray, and the Islanders certainly fit that description at the moment.

Pickswise specifically recommends Tampa Bay on the moneyline at -170 (playable to -195), noting that the Islanders' desperation likely won't be enough to overcome the significant talent gap between these teams. The Lightning are simply playing better hockey right now, with their three-game winning streak demonstrating they're finding their form at the right time of the season.

While road games always carry additional challenges, Tampa Bay has proven themselves to be a reliable team regardless of venue throughout the season. The Islanders might show early energy from desperation, but Tampa Bay's superior talent, defensive structure, and goaltending should ultimately prevail. Given the current trajectory of both teams, the Lightning represent one of the more confident moneyline plays on Tuesday's NHL slate.