The red-hot Miami Heat, riding a six-game winning streak after dismantling the Celtics, welcome a Memphis Grizzlies squad that's lost seven of their last eight despite Ja Morant's explosive 36-point performance against Golden State.
While Tyler Herro leads Miami's resurgence with 23.7 points per game, Memphis boasts the league's second-best offense (122 PPG) but has seemingly forgotten how to close out games during their late-season collapse.
This clash of momentum versus talent sets up a fascinating Thursday night showdown as the desperate Miami Heat host a Memphis Grizzlies team that's watching their playoff positioning deteriorate with each passing game.
Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies matchup, our predictive model gives the Grizzlies a 56.67% chance of defeating the Heat.
Memphis Grizzlies: 56.67% win probability
- Higher win percentage (44 wins compared to Miami's 35 wins)
- Significantly more points scored (9271 points compared to Miami's 8347 points)
- Better positioning in their conference standings (6th in West vs 9th in East)
Miami Heat: 43.33% win probability
- Lower offensive output (8347 points scored vs Memphis's 9271)
- Recent form vulnerability (despite 5 straight wins, their overall record remains weaker)
- Defensive inconsistency (8345 points allowed is good, but doesn't compensate for offensive shortcomings)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies odds
Here are the current odds for the NBA matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the home team Miami Heat on Thursday, April 03.
Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | |
---|---|---|
Moneyline | +162 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | -180 (via bet365 US) |
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Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies preview
The struggling Memphis Grizzlies, who've dropped seven of their last eight games, limp into Miami's Kaseya Center Thursday night to face a Heat squad that's caught absolute fire with six straight wins.
Ja Morant has been a lone bright spot for Memphis, dropping 36 points in their recent loss to Golden State, but even his stellar play hasn't stopped the Grizzlies' free-fall from the Western Conference's fifth seed.
Miami's resurgence has been stunning – they just demolished Boston 124-103 on the road, with Tyler Herro pouring in 25 points while orchestrating their suddenly potent offense.
The Heat are dealing with significant injuries (Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love among others sidelined), but their collective energy and tenacity have compensated during this remarkable hot streak.
When these teams met back in March, Memphis crushed Miami 125-91, but both squads have trended in opposite directions since.
The Grizzlies boast the NBA's second-best scoring offense (122 points per game), but their defense has been their Achilles' heel, ranking sixth-worst while allowing 117.3 points nightly.
With the Grizzlies desperately trying to stop their slide and Miami riding momentum despite playing the second night of a back-to-back, expect an intense, high-scoring battle as both teams fight for playoff positioning.
Keep an eye on the Bam Adebayo-Zach Edey matchup in the paint – Edey's rebounding prowess (7.7 boards per game) against Adebayo's all-around game (9.7 rebounds) could ultimately determine which team controls this crucial late-season contest.
Key stats
- 1The Miami Heat are currently in 9th position in the Eastern Conference with a 35-41 record while Memphis Grizzlies sit 6th in the Western Conference with a 44-32 record
- 2Miami Heat are on a five-game winning streak (WWWWW) while the Grizzlies have lost four of their last five games (LLLLW)
- 3Memphis has scored significantly more points this season with 9271 goals for compared to Miami's 8347
- 4Despite their lower position, Miami has a better defensive record allowing 8345 goals against versus Memphis's 8916
Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies form


Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies head to head
Miami Heat
100%
Memphis Grizzlies
0%
Apr 3, 2025
Miami Heat
0 : 0
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 16, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
125 : 91
Miami Heat
Oct 19, 2024
Memphis Grizzlies
109 : 114
Miami Heat
Jul 23, 2024
Miami Heat
120 : 118
Memphis Grizzlies
Jan 25, 2024
Miami Heat
96 : 105
Memphis Grizzlies
Nov 9, 2023
Memphis Grizzlies
102 : 108
Miami Heat