The red-hot Miami Heat, riding a six-game winning streak after dismantling the Celtics, welcome a Memphis Grizzlies squad that's lost seven of their last eight despite Ja Morant's explosive 36-point performance against Golden State.

While Tyler Herro leads Miami's resurgence with 23.7 points per game, Memphis boasts the league's second-best offense (122 PPG) but has seemingly forgotten how to close out games during their late-season collapse.

This clash of momentum versus talent sets up a fascinating Thursday night showdown as the desperate Miami Heat host a Memphis Grizzlies team that's watching their playoff positioning deteriorate with each passing game.

Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies matchup, our predictive model gives the Grizzlies a 56.67% chance of defeating the Heat.

Memphis Grizzlies: 56.67% win probability

  • Higher win percentage (44 wins compared to Miami's 35 wins)
  • Significantly more points scored (9271 points compared to Miami's 8347 points)
  • Better positioning in their conference standings (6th in West vs 9th in East)

Miami Heat: 43.33% win probability

  • Lower offensive output (8347 points scored vs Memphis's 9271)
  • Recent form vulnerability (despite 5 straight wins, their overall record remains weaker)
  • Defensive inconsistency (8345 points allowed is good, but doesn't compensate for offensive shortcomings)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies odds

Here are the current odds for the NBA matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the home team Miami Heat on Thursday, April 03.

Miami HeatMemphis Grizzlies
Moneyline+162 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)-180 (via bet365 US)

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Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies preview

The struggling Memphis Grizzlies, who've dropped seven of their last eight games, limp into Miami's Kaseya Center Thursday night to face a Heat squad that's caught absolute fire with six straight wins.

Ja Morant has been a lone bright spot for Memphis, dropping 36 points in their recent loss to Golden State, but even his stellar play hasn't stopped the Grizzlies' free-fall from the Western Conference's fifth seed.

Miami's resurgence has been stunning – they just demolished Boston 124-103 on the road, with Tyler Herro pouring in 25 points while orchestrating their suddenly potent offense.

The Heat are dealing with significant injuries (Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love among others sidelined), but their collective energy and tenacity have compensated during this remarkable hot streak.

When these teams met back in March, Memphis crushed Miami 125-91, but both squads have trended in opposite directions since.

The Grizzlies boast the NBA's second-best scoring offense (122 points per game), but their defense has been their Achilles' heel, ranking sixth-worst while allowing 117.3 points nightly.

With the Grizzlies desperately trying to stop their slide and Miami riding momentum despite playing the second night of a back-to-back, expect an intense, high-scoring battle as both teams fight for playoff positioning.

Keep an eye on the Bam Adebayo-Zach Edey matchup in the paint – Edey's rebounding prowess (7.7 boards per game) against Adebayo's all-around game (9.7 rebounds) could ultimately determine which team controls this crucial late-season contest.

Key stats

  • 1
    The Miami Heat are currently in 9th position in the Eastern Conference with a 35-41 record while Memphis Grizzlies sit 6th in the Western Conference with a 44-32 record
  • 2
    Miami Heat are on a five-game winning streak (WWWWW) while the Grizzlies have lost four of their last five games (LLLLW)
  • 3
    Memphis has scored significantly more points this season with 9271 goals for compared to Miami's 8347
  • 4
    Despite their lower position, Miami has a better defensive record allowing 8345 goals against versus Memphis's 8916

Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
W
W
W
W
W
Victories
5/5 (100%)
Defeats
0/5 (0%)
Apr 2, 2025
Boston Celtics103:124Miami Heat
Mar 31, 2025
Washington Wizards94:120Miami Heat
Mar 29, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers95:118Miami Heat
Mar 27, 2025
Atlanta Hawks112:122Miami Heat
Mar 25, 2025
Golden State Warriors86:112Miami Heat
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
W
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Apr 2, 2025
Golden State Warriors134:125Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 31, 2025
Boston Celtics117:103Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 30, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers134:127Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 28, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder125:104Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 26, 2025
Utah Jazz103:140Memphis Grizzlies

Miami Heat vs. Memphis Grizzlies head to head

Miami Heat

100%

Memphis Grizzlies

0%

Apr 3, 2025

Miami Heat

0 : 0

Memphis Grizzlies

Mar 16, 2025

Memphis Grizzlies

125 : 91

Miami Heat

Oct 19, 2024

Memphis Grizzlies

109 : 114

Miami Heat

Jul 23, 2024

Miami Heat

120 : 118

Memphis Grizzlies

Jan 25, 2024

Miami Heat

96 : 105

Memphis Grizzlies

Nov 9, 2023

Memphis Grizzlies

102 : 108

Miami Heat