HomeNewsSenators vs Lightning Prediction & Odds - 4/3/2025

Senators vs Lightning Prediction & Odds - 4/3/2025

Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 52.5% chance of defeating the Sens.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 52.5% win probability

Superior offensive production (268 goals scored, 5th best in the league)
Better defensive performance (196 goals against compared to Ottawa's 214)
Excellent recent form with four consecutive wins before their last game (WWWWL)

Ottawa Senators: 47.5% win probability

Inconsistent recent performance with mixed results (LLWWL in last five games)
Goal differential issues (213 goals scored vs 214 conceded, barely breaking even)
Lower points total (84 points in 74 games compared to Tampa's 93 points in 74 games)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

Here are the latest odds for the NHL matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning visiting the Ottawa Senators at home on Thursday, April 03.

	Ottawa Senators	Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline	+115 (via Caesars Sportsbook)	-125 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning cruise into Ottawa's Canadian Tire Centre Thursday night riding high on a four-game winning streak and sitting just one point behind Toronto for the Atlantic Division crown.

Nikita Kucherov has been practically unstoppable lately, racking up a ridiculous 15 points in his last six games to lead the NHL scoring race with 111 points.

The Senators, clinging to the first wildcard spot with an eight-point cushion, look to bounce back after Tuesday's disappointing 5-2 home loss to Buffalo where their offense continued to sputter.

Drake Batherson might be Ottawa's best hope to spark a turnaround—he's recorded points in four of his last six games and has already tormented Tampa with four points across their three previous meetings this season.

Goaltending could tell the story, with Tampa's elite Andrei Vasilevskiy (.922 save percentage) likely facing off against Ottawa's Linus Ullmark, who's been solid but couldn't stop the Sabres' barrage earlier this week.

Recent history favors the Lightning, who've dominated the season series 2-1 while scoring 13 goals in those three contests.

Look for Tampa's second-ranked offense (3.6 goals per game) to test an Ottawa defense that's surrendered three or more goals in four of their last five outings.

The Canadian Tire Centre crowd might be in for a high-scoring affair with both teams having something crucial to play for—division supremacy for Tampa, playoff positioning for the home squad.

Key stats

1
Tampa Bay is 4th in Eastern Conference with 93 points while Ottawa sits 7th with 84 points
2
Tampa Bay boasts a strong recent form of WWWWL compared to Ottawa's LLWWL
3
Tampa Bay has a goal difference of +72 (268 GF, 196 GA) while Ottawa sits at -1 (213 GF, 214 GA)
4
Tampa Bay has won 44 games from 74 played whereas Ottawa has 39 wins from 74 matches