HomeNewsSabres vs Lightning Prediction & Odds - 4/5/2025

Sabres vs Lightning Prediction & Odds - 4/5/2025

Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 55.33% chance of defeating the Sabres.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 55.33% win probability

Superior offensive power (269 goals for, ranking among the top in the Eastern Conference)
Excellent defensive record (198 goals against, much better than Buffalo's 263)
Strong recent form (LWWWW compared to Buffalo's WWLWW, showing consistency when it matters most)

Buffalo Sabres: 44.67% win probability

Poor defensive record (263 goals against, one of the highest in the Eastern Conference)
Lower points total (70 points compared to Tampa's 93 after similar games played)
Lower standing position (15th in Eastern Conference versus Tampa's 4th place position, showing a significant gap in overall team quality)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds

Here are the latest odds for this NHL matchup as the Buffalo Sabres host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday, April 05.

	Buffalo Sabres	Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline	+175 (via Caesars Sportsbook)	-194 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Best NHL sportsbook promos

Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview

The red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning roll into KeyBank Center Saturday night, looking to bounce back after their surprising 2-1 stumble against Ottawa snapped a four-game winning streak.

Buffalo enters with unexpected momentum, riding a two-game winning streak and having won five of their last six, including an impressive 5-2 road victory over Ottawa where Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson continued their scoring tear.

The Atlantic Division clash features two teams heading in opposite directions - Tampa fighting for playoff positioning just three points behind Toronto for the division lead, while Buffalo's late-season surge likely comes too late to save their playoff hopes.

Lightning's explosive offense (3.56 goals per game, 2nd in the league) meets a suddenly potent Sabres attack that's averaged a whopping 4.2 goals over their last ten games.

Keep an eye on Brandon Hagel, who netted his 34th goal for Tampa in their last outing, going head-to-head with Buffalo's Tuch, who's reached 32 goals this season and seems determined to finish strong.

Between the pipes, it's a goaltending mismatch with Tampa's elite Andrei Vasilevskiy (.907 save percentage) likely facing Buffalo's James Reimer, who did stop 33 shots in their recent win.

The rivalry's recent history favors Tampa (5-2-3 in last 10 meetings), including a wild 6-5 thriller when they last met in March - suggesting another high-scoring affair could be on tap.

While the Lightning remain heavy favorites as they chase home-ice advantage, don't sleep on these Sabres - they've got nothing to lose and seem hellbent on playing spoiler down the stretch.

Key stats

1
Tampa Bay (4th, 93 pts) is 23 positions higher than Buffalo (15th, 70 pts) in league standings
2
Buffalo's recent form (WWLWW) outperforms Tampa Bay's (LWWWW) despite their lower position
3
Tampa Bay has scored 25 more goals (269) than Buffalo (244) while conceding 65 fewer goals (198 vs 263)
4
Buffalo has offensive potential with 244 goals scored, but their poor defense (263 goals against) creates a -19 goal difference compared to Tampa Bay's +71