With Miami fighting to improve their Play-In Tournament position and Philadelphia limping toward the finish line without stars Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George, this Eastern Conference clash features teams on drastically different trajectories.

Bam Adebayo's interior presence could prove decisive against a Sixers squad that ranks dead last in rebound percentage (46.5%) and has dropped 26 of their last 29 games, though Tyler Herro's questionable status adds an element of uncertainty to the Heat's offensive gameplan.

All eyes will be on whether the injury-ravaged Sixers can snap their 11-game losing streak or if the defensively-oriented Miami Heat will take care of business at home against their Atlantic Division visitors.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers matchup, our predictive model gives the Heat a 69% chance of defeating the Sixers.

Miami Heat: 69% win probability

  • Strong recent form (LLWWW) with momentum from three recent wins (Supporting statistic: Heat have won 3 of their last 5 games)
  • Superior defensive efficiency throughout the season (Supporting statistic: Heat have allowed 8576 points compared to Sixers' 9033)
  • Better overall record this season (Supporting statistic: 35-43 record vs Philadelphia's 23-55 record)

Philadelphia 76ers: 31% win probability

  • Struggling defense allowing easy buckets (Supporting statistic: 76ers have conceded 9033 points this season)
  • Poor road performance throughout the season (Supporting statistic: Currently sitting 13th in Eastern Conference with only 23 wins)
  • Lack of offensive production (Supporting statistic: 76ers have scored 8549 points, lower than Miami's 8570 despite playing the same number of games)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers odds

Here are the latest odds for the NBA showdown between the Miami Heat (home) and the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday, April 07.

Miami HeatPhiladelphia 76ers
Moneyline-900 (via bet365 US)+660 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers preview

The struggling 76ers limp into Miami on an 11-game losing skid without their star trio of Embiid, Maxey, and George - all shut down for the season as Philly plays out the string of a deeply disappointing campaign.

Miami, clinging to the 10th seed in the East, desperately needs this win to improve their Play-In Tournament positioning, but their injury report is also concerning with Tyler Herro listed as questionable after missing their last game with a thigh issue.

Keep an eye on Quentin Grimes, who's become Philly's default go-to scorer, averaging 22.3 points and dropping 24+ in each of his last three games including a 28-point effort against Minnesota.

Bam Adebayo remains Miami's rock in the paint, coming off a monster 31-point, 12-rebound performance against Milwaukee, and he should feast against a depleted Sixers frontcourt.

The Heat have dominated this season's series, winning all three previous matchups, and Miami's 8th-ranked defense should smother a Philly offense that ranks a dismal 25th in efficiency.

The betting trends heavily favor Miami, though their 3-9-1 ATS record as double-digit favorites raises some eyebrows for those considering laying the heavy chalk.

Expect a slow-paced, grinding affair with the Heat controlling the tempo - especially if Herro can't go - though Philly's young players like Adem Bona (who dropped 28 points on 13-of-15 shooting against Milwaukee) might make things interesting.

This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions - Miami fighting for playoff positioning while Philly can only dream about next season's potential when their stars return to health.

Key stats

  • 1
    Miami Heat (10th in East) have won their last 3 games while 76ers (13th in East) have lost 4 straight
  • 2
    Heat have a balanced scoring profile with 8570 points for and 8576 against (+/- of -6)
  • 3
    76ers have struggled defensively, allowing 9033 points while scoring just 8549 (net -484)
  • 4
    Home team Miami (35-43) has a significantly better record than visiting Philadelphia (23-55) this season

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
L
L
W
W
W
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
Apr 6, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks121:115Miami Heat
Apr 3, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies110:108Miami Heat
Apr 2, 2025
Boston Celtics103:124Miami Heat
Mar 31, 2025
Washington Wizards94:120Miami Heat
Mar 29, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers95:118Miami Heat
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
L
Victories
0/5 (0%)
Defeats
5/5 (100%)
Apr 5, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves114:109Philadelphia 76ers
Apr 3, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks126:113Philadelphia 76ers
Apr 1, 2025
New York Knicks105:91Philadelphia 76ers
Mar 30, 2025
Toronto Raptors127:109Philadelphia 76ers
Mar 29, 2025
Miami Heat118:95Philadelphia 76ers

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers head to head

Miami Heat

20%

Philadelphia 76ers

80%

Apr 7, 2025

Miami Heat

0 : 0

Philadelphia 76ers

Mar 29, 2025

Philadelphia 76ers

95 : 118

Miami Heat

Feb 6, 2025

Philadelphia 76ers

101 : 108

Miami Heat

Nov 19, 2024

Miami Heat

106 : 89

Philadelphia 76ers

Apr 17, 2024

Philadelphia 76ers

105 : 104

Miami Heat

Apr 4, 2024

Miami Heat

105 : 109

Philadelphia 76ers