NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/07/2025

The Lightning-Rangers clash at Madison Square Garden tonight sets up perfectly for an under play. Both teams feature elite goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy, two of the NHL's premier netminders who can single-handedly dictate the flow of a game. This goaltending matchup alone provides solid foundation for an under bet, but there's more supporting evidence.

Tampa Bay's defense has tightened considerably in recent weeks, allowing three or fewer goals in five consecutive games. This defensive consistency has been particularly evident on the road, where the Lightning have scored just two or fewer goals in three of their past four away contests. The Rangers, meanwhile, find themselves in a desperate situation, six points out of a playoff spot, which often leads to more conservative, mistake-free hockey.

Historical trends strongly favor the under in this matchup as well. The under has hit in 10 of the last 15 meetings between these squads, showing a consistent pattern that transcends seasonal fluctuations. It's worth noting that while Tampa dominated the Rangers 6-2 in their previous meeting this season, that result appears to be an outlier rather than the expected norm when these teams meet.

The Lightning enter this contest having cooled off offensively, managing only three goals total in their past two games. This offensive lull coincides with their road struggles, creating a perfect storm for a low-scoring affair. The Rangers understand they can't get into a track meet with Tampa's firepower, so expect New York to emphasize structure and defensive responsibility, particularly in trying to contain the three-headed monster of Point, Guentzel, and Kucherov.

The playoff implications add another layer to this under play. Tampa Bay is still within striking distance of the top spot in the Atlantic Division, making each point crucial. Coming off consecutive losses, they'll likely emphasize defensive responsibility rather than taking unnecessary risks. Similarly, the Rangers know their playoff hopes hang by a thread, creating an environment where both teams may prioritize preventing goals over aggressive offensive pushes.

When analyzing totals, current form often trumps season-long statistics. The Lightning's recent offensive struggles on the road combined with the Rangers' desperate situation points strongly toward a tactical, low-scoring battle. With two elite goaltenders, strong recent defensive performances, and the historical under trend between these teams, everything aligns for this game to stay under six goals.

The Winnipeg Jets look poised to get a crucial win tonight as they host the red-hot St. Louis Blues. While the Blues have been on a remarkable run with 12 straight victories, climbing into wild card position, the Jets hold a distinct home-ice advantage that shouldn't be overlooked. Winnipeg boasts an impressive 28-6-4 record at the Canada Life Centre this season, making them one of the league's most dominant home teams.

The Central Division race is tightening, with Dallas just four points behind Winnipeg and holding a game in hand. This situation creates a must-win scenario for the Jets, who need every point they can get to maintain their division lead. Historical trends also favor Winnipeg, as they've won eight of the last ten meetings between these teams, displaying a consistent ability to handle St. Louis.

Winnipeg's defensive structure has been their calling card all season, allowing a miserly 1.95 goals per game at home. This stinginess will be tested against a Blues offense that's averaged 3.9 goals over their last ten games, but the Jets' system under coach Rick Bowman has proven resilient against high-octane offenses throughout the season.

St. Louis deserves enormous credit for their turnaround under Jim Montgomery, going 34-16-6 since he took over coaching duties. They're playing with confidence and purpose, making them dangerous opponents regardless of venue. However, the combination of Winnipeg's home-ice dominance, their defensive structure, and the urgent need for points in the division race gives the Jets a significant edge.

The Jets should also benefit from a rested Connor Hellebuyck, who's been among the league's elite goaltenders this season. His ability to steal games even when Winnipeg isn't at their best provides an additional layer of security for Jets backers. While St. Louis will keep this competitive, expect Winnipeg's home advantage and defensive discipline to ultimately win out in what should be a playoff-like atmosphere.

In tight games between quality opponents, little details often make the difference. Winnipeg's special teams, particularly their penalty kill at home, provide them with an edge in situation-critical moments that should help them secure a victory tonight against a Blues team that, despite their impressive win streak, may finally see their run come to an end in one of the league's toughest buildings.

The Los Angeles Kings are setting up to be a dominant force against the Seattle Kraken tonight at Crypto.com Arena. Riding a four-game winning streak, the Kings have found their stride at precisely the right moment in the season. Their defensive prowess has been remarkable, allowing just four goals total during this win streak, showcasing a suffocating system that's peaking at the perfect time.

What makes the Kings particularly dangerous is their balanced attack. Anze Kopitar continues to defy age with his two-way excellence, while Adrian Kempe provides the speed and finishing ability that complements the Kings' methodical approach. This diversity in offensive weapons should create significant matchup problems for a Kraken team that's surrendering 3.16 goals per game – a vulnerability the Kings are well-positioned to exploit.

Defensively, the Kings have been a fortress. Vladislav Gavrikov and Michael Anderson anchor a blue line that's expert at limiting quality chances and forcing turnovers in their own zone. Darcy Kuemper has been solid between the pipes, and the entire defensive unit seems to be playing with perfect synchronicity. This cohesion has translated to the NHL's fifth-best goals-against average, allowing just 2.45 goals per game.

The spread value comes from the Kings' ability to pull away in games. When they gain momentum, they've shown an ability to capitalize and extend leads, particularly at home where they feed off the energy of their crowd. The Kraken, meanwhile, have struggled with consistency and often find themselves chasing games, which plays directly into the Kings' preferred structure of defending leads.

There's also the context of playoff positioning. The Kings are battling for home-ice advantage in the first round, giving them extra motivation to not just win, but win convincingly. Every regulation win matters significantly in the standings at this point, so expect Los Angeles to keep pushing even if they establish an early lead, rather than sitting back and protecting a one-goal advantage.

The betting market seems to be undervaluing the Kings' current form and defensive dominance. While laying 1.5 goals always carries risk, the +110 price offers excellent value given the performance gap between these teams. The Kings should control this game from the opening faceoff and have the finishing ability to cover the spread against a Kraken team that's struggled to keep pace with the Western Conference's elite teams.

Tonight's tilt between Calgary and San Jose has all the makings of a defensive struggle, despite what conventional wisdom might suggest about a matchup featuring the lowly Sharks. Both teams have been mired in offensive slumps that show no signs of abating. The Sharks have managed to find the back of the net just seven times in their last five outings, while Calgary's offense ranks among the league's worst, generating a mere 2.55 goals per game throughout the season.

The goaltending situation further supports an under play. Dustin Wolf has been a bright spot for the Flames during a challenging season, providing steady netminding that's helped Calgary maintain a respectable 2.91 goals against average. On the other side, Alexandar Georgiev has shown flashes of brilliance for San Jose despite facing a nightly barrage of shots behind a porous defense. When he's on his game, Georgiev can steal periods if not entire games.

Defensively, both teams have relied on their blue lines to compensate for offensive shortcomings. Calgary's MacKenzie Weegar has emerged as a legitimate top-pair defenseman, while Kevin Bahl provides the physical presence needed to neutralize opposing forwards. For San Jose, the veteran presence of Mario Ferraro and Jan Rutta helps stabilize a young defense corps that's learning on the job. These defensive units should be able to stifle attacking chances throughout the game.

The strategic approach from both benches is likely to emphasize structure over creativity. Calgary, still harboring faint playoff hopes, can't afford to get into a track meet with anyone, even the struggling Sharks. They'll look to establish their forecheck, grind down San Jose's defense with cycle play, and capitalize on a limited number of high-danger chances. The Sharks, meanwhile, have embraced a defensive-minded approach under coach David Quinn, focusing on limiting opponents rather than trading chances.

Recent form indicates goals will be at a premium. The under has been a profitable play in San Jose games throughout the season, particularly when facing teams that don't possess elite offensive talent. Calgary fits that description perfectly, having struggled to score consistently despite possessing capable offensive players like Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau who have underperformed this season.

While the total of 6 might seem low for a game featuring the defensively-challenged Sharks, the offensive limitations of both squads coupled with their recent scoring droughts points strongly toward an under. Expect a tight-checking, low-event hockey game where neither team eclipses three goals, making the under 6 one of Monday's strongest NHL plays.

Tonight's clash between the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair, despite the absence of superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl from Edmonton's lineup. The Oilers still lead the NHL in shots on goal per game, a vital statistic when facing a Ducks team that surrenders more rubber than any other squad in the league, allowing a league-worst 32 shots against per game.

The special teams matchup heavily favors goals being scored. Edmonton boasts an elite power play unit that continues to produce even without their two biggest stars, while Anaheim's penalty kill ranks second-to-last in the NHL. This mismatch should lead to multiple power play opportunities being converted, pushing the total upward throughout the night.

Historical context strongly suggests we'll see plenty of lamps lit in this one. The Ducks have been Edmonton's kryptonite this season, remarkably scoring 13 goals across their three meetings, including a six-goal outburst in their most recent clash. Something about Anaheim's youthful, nothing-to-lose approach seems to create problems for Edmonton's defensive structure.

The Ducks' recent offensive surge can't be ignored either. They've posted an impressive 20 goals over their last six contests, showing that their young talent is beginning to click as the season winds down. Players like Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry and Mason McTavish are finally delivering on their offensive potential, creating matchup problems even for playoff-bound teams like Edmonton.

While the Oilers are pushing hard for playoff positioning, trying to catch the Kings for second place in the Pacific Division, their dedication to defensive structure may take a backseat to offensive aggressiveness in this matchup. With Dallas holding games in hand, Edmonton needs every point they can get, which should lead to an aggressive, chance-trading approach rather than cautious defensive hockey.

The over has hit in four of Anaheim's last five home games, indicating that the Honda Center has been a venue for entertaining, high-scoring hockey. With both teams likely to exchange chances throughout the night and neither defense playing particularly lockdown hockey recently (Anaheim has surrendered 10 goals in their past two games), this contest has all the makings of breaching the 6.5 total with room to spare.