NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/09/2025

The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight in what should be a compelling matchup between Atlantic Division rivals, but several factors point toward a Tampa Bay victory on home ice. This isn't just about talent – it's about circumstances, momentum, and matchup advantages that strongly favor the Lightning.

First and foremost, Toronto faces the dreaded back-to-back situation, having played last night. This travel and fatigue factor cannot be overstated in late-season hockey when teams are already battling the grind of an 82-game schedule. The Lightning, meanwhile, come in relatively rested and have been absolutely dominant at home lately, winning four straight on their own ice.

Tampa's offensive explosion at home has been something to behold recently. They've poured in an astounding 19 goals in their last three home games – that's more than 6 goals per game. Their power play has been clicking at over 25%, and they'll face a Maple Leafs penalty kill that ranks just 16th in the league. This special teams mismatch provides a significant edge for the Lightning.

Defensively, Tampa has tightened up considerably at home, surrendering just four goals in their last three games at Amalie Arena. This two-way dominance makes them particularly dangerous, as they're finding ways to suffocate opponents while still generating plenty of offense. Toronto, meanwhile, has shown defensive vulnerabilities on the road, giving up nine goals in their last three away games.

The psychological edge also belongs to Tampa Bay. They're playing with confidence at home, while Toronto enters this game knowing the difficulty of the back-to-back situation against a rested opponent. The Lightning have demonstrated an ability to identify and exploit fatigue in opponents, which should be particularly effective against a Maple Leafs team that likely won't have their legs fully under them.

When you consider all factors – Tampa's home dominance, their special teams advantage, Toronto's fatigue, and the recent defensive trends for both squads – the Lightning moneyline represents one of tonight's strongest NHL plays. While divisional games can always surprise, the circumstances surrounding this matchup heavily favor the home team.

The Minnesota Wild host the San Jose Sharks tonight in what looks like a mismatch on paper, but the betting value actually lies with the road underdogs on the puck line. While most handicappers are leaning heavily toward Minnesota, I see value on the Sharks +1.5 that the market is overlooking.

Multiple analytical models have flagged this as a prime opportunity, with one showing a substantial 3.1% edge on the Sharks +1.5 at -105. That's not just noise – it's the highest edge identified across all of tonight's NHL slate. The math suggests San Jose has approximately a 54.4% probability of either winning outright or losing by just one goal, which makes this puck line play extremely attractive.

The Wild are certainly in must-win territory as they chase a playoff spot, sitting just two points behind St. Louis for a wild card position. But that desperation comes with pressure, and Minnesota's offense isn't exactly built to blow teams out. They're averaging just 2.68 goals per game this season, which ranks in the bottom third of the NHL. Even against the struggling Sharks, they may find it difficult to establish a multi-goal cushion.

San Jose's recent play suggests they won't be pushovers. Despite their position in the standings, they've managed to keep games competitive and have the defensive capability to frustrate the Wild's limited offensive attack. With Alexandar Georgiev expected between the pipes, the Sharks have a goaltender capable of stealing a period or two and keeping this one close.

The market is overreacting to Minnesota's playoff desperation and undervaluing San Jose's ability to keep games close. This is exactly the type of situational spot where sharp money often finds value – taking an unpopular underdog getting a cushion against a team that struggles to score goals consistently.

While I won't go so far as to suggest the Sharks will win outright, the +1.5 goal cushion provides significant value at near even money. This is the type of bet that professional handicappers look for – where public perception has created a mispriced line that doesn't reflect the true gap between these teams in a single-game scenario.

Tonight's clash between the St. Louis Blues and Edmonton Oilers isn't just another regular season game – it's a high-stakes playoff positioning battle with massive implications for both sides. With both teams sitting at 93 points but in different conference positions, this matchup has all the makings of a tense, defensive struggle that should stay under the total.

History strongly favors the Under between these two clubs. The Under has cashed in both of their meetings this season, continuing a trend that's seen the Under go 4-0 in the last four contests and an impressive 6-2 across the previous eight. This isn't coincidental – these teams know each other well and typically play tight, structured hockey when they meet.

Both squads are also trending under in their recent games. St. Louis has gone under in four of their last six games and six of their previous nine outings. Meanwhile, Edmonton has been even more consistent with the Under, cashing in five consecutive games. When both teams are playing this style of hockey, it's a recipe for a lower-scoring affair.

The defensive metrics back this up too. The Blues are allowing just 2.82 goals per game this season, while the Oilers have tightened up recently, with Jordan Binnington likely to continue his solid form between the pipes for St. Louis. In their last 13 games, the Blues have surrendered just 25 total goals – under 2 per game – showcasing their commitment to defensive hockey.

What makes this bet even more appealing is that these teams have playoff positioning on the line. The Blues are trying to hold off Minnesota for a wild card spot, while Edmonton is hoping to catch Los Angeles for second in the Pacific. In these high-pressure late-season games, defensive responsibility typically takes precedence over offensive fireworks, further supporting the Under play.

This is my top play of the night, and the consensus across multiple analysis sources points in the same direction. With two defensively sound teams battling for crucial playoff positioning, expect a tight-checking, low-scoring game that stays under 5.5 total goals.