NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/10/2025

Tonight's clash between the Buffalo Sabres and Columbus Blue Jackets has all the makings of a high-scoring affair that should sail over the 6.5 total. Both teams have been offensive juggernauts recently, with defensive play taking a clear backseat in their recent performances.

The Sabres have been particularly explosive, seeing the over hit in six of their last ten games while averaging a whopping 4.5 goals per contest during that span. They've lit the lamp at least four times in six of those games, showcasing an offense that's clicking despite being eliminated from playoff contention. Buffalo's road offense has been solid throughout the season, averaging 3.08 goals per game, while their defensive woes continue with 3.74 goals allowed per game away from home.

Columbus hasn't been any better defensively, allowing a concerning 4.1 goals per game over their last ten contests. The Blue Jackets' defensive struggles have been a season-long story, but they've compensated with explosive offensive production, especially on home ice where they average 3.82 goals per game – among the best home scoring rates in the league.

The recent trends for both teams strongly favor the over. Columbus has seen seven overs in their last ten games with just two unders and one push. The combination of their potent home offense and porous defense creates the perfect storm for high-scoring contests. Meanwhile, Buffalo's recent offensive surge suggests they won't have trouble finding the back of the net against a Blue Jackets team that struggles to shut opponents down.

While Columbus still has a flicker of playoff hope, trailing Montreal by eight points with five games remaining, this desperation should lead to aggressive, offense-minded hockey. The Blue Jackets simply can't afford to play a conservative game at this point in the season – they need wins and they need them now.

When you combine Buffalo's recent scoring prowess, Columbus' dominant home offense, both teams' defensive deficiencies, and the Blue Jackets' need to push the pace, there's excellent value in taking the over 6.5 in what should be an entertaining, back-and-forth contest at Nationwide Arena.

The Washington Capitals host the Carolina Hurricanes tonight in what promises to be a crucial Metropolitan Division showdown. While the Caps have already clinched the division with 107 points, they're not taking their foot off the gas pedal. Washington sits just three points behind the Winnipeg Jets for the Presidents' Trophy and home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs, giving them plenty of motivation heading into tonight's matchup.

Carolina, on the other hand, has been struggling mightily away from home. The Hurricanes are a mediocre 16-19-3 on the road this season, and they're currently riding a three-game losing streak – all on the road – where they've been outscored by a concerning 13-4 margin. Even more troubling is that these losses have come against teams that aren't even playoff-bound, raising serious questions about Carolina's focus and execution.

The home team has dominated this series recently, winning five consecutive matchups dating back to March 2022. While Carolina did handle Washington 5-1 in their most recent meeting on April 2nd, that game was in Raleigh. The venue shift to Capital One Arena significantly alters the dynamic, especially given Carolina's road woes.

Washington has been one of the NHL's most balanced teams, averaging 3.58 goals per game while limiting opponents to just 2.70. The Capitals' offensive attack is led by the ageless Alexander Ovechkin, along with Dylan Strome and a supporting cast that's firing on all cylinders. Defensively, John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun anchor a blue line that's been particularly stingy on home ice.

Goaltender Logan Thompson has been rock-solid between the pipes for Washington, giving them the stability they need heading into the playoffs. His ability to make key saves at crucial moments has been a difference-maker in tight games, and I expect him to outperform his counterpart tonight.

When you factor in Carolina's road struggles, Washington's home-ice advantage, the Capitals' continued motivation to secure the Presidents' Trophy, and the recent head-to-head trend favoring home teams, backing Washington on the moneyline represents excellent value. The Capitals should take care of business in front of their home crowd tonight.

The Winnipeg Jets visit the Dallas Stars tonight in a heavyweight Western Conference battle that could have major playoff seeding implications. Both teams are among the NHL's elite this season, but the Jets have been playing phenomenal hockey across the board and present tremendous value as road underdogs in this matchup.

Winnipeg's balanced attack has been a nightmare for opponents all season. The Jets are averaging 3.42 goals per game while boasting one of the league's stingiest defenses, allowing just 2.32 goals per contest. This defensive dominance is spearheaded by Connor Hellebuyck, who continues to strengthen his case for the Vezina Trophy with stellar performances night after night. His ability to make crucial saves in big moments gives Winnipeg a significant edge in tight games like this one.

The Jets' offensive firepower can't be overlooked either. Kyle Connor has been lighting the lamp with regularity, while players like Cole Perfetti provide the secondary scoring that championship-caliber teams need. Their ability to establish a strong offensive zone presence and create high-quality scoring chances through quick passing sequences makes them dangerous against any opponent.

Dallas is certainly no pushover, allowing just 2.59 goals per game with Jake Oettinger providing solid goaltending. However, the Stars have shown occasional vulnerability this season, particularly against teams that can match their defensive prowess while bringing consistent offensive pressure – exactly the formula Winnipeg employs.

The Jets' defensive corps, led by Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo, has excelled at creating turnovers and limiting quality shots against Hellebuyck. This defensive solidity has been on full display recently, with Winnipeg allowing just five goals in their last three games. Against a Dallas team that relies on structured offense, this defensive discipline could prove decisive.

Given the Jets' complete team performance, stellar goaltending, and balanced scoring attack, they present excellent value as road underdogs. In what should be a playoff-like atmosphere between two Western Conference powers, Winnipeg has all the tools to come away with a statement victory against the Stars.

The Vegas Golden Knights have been absolutely dominant at home this season with an impressive 27-9-3 record and a staggering +51 goal differential. They're facing a Seattle Kraken team that's been eliminated from playoff contention and has struggled mightily on the road, posting a 17-22-1 record with a -17 goal differential. This matchup screams advantage Vegas.

What makes this pick even more compelling is the recent history between these teams at T-Mobile Arena. Vegas has won four straight home meetings against Seattle, and they haven't just been winning – they've been demolishing the Kraken. In those four games dating back to April 2023, the Golden Knights have outscored Seattle by an impressive 17-5 margin, winning each contest by at least two goals.

The Golden Knights also have much more to play for tonight. They're closing in on the Pacific Division title, leading the Los Angeles Kings by six points with just four games remaining. While they're likely to secure the top seed, they certainly won't be taking their foot off the gas as they look to enter the playoffs with momentum.

Seattle, meanwhile, has absolutely nothing to play for at this point. They've been eliminated from playoff contention and are essentially playing out the string. This lack of motivation is a significant factor when facing a hungry Vegas team that's still battling for playoff positioning.

In their most recent meeting, Vegas dominated with a 6-2 victory, and I expect a similar outcome tonight. The Golden Knights have also played stingy defense lately, allowing just seven goals in their last three games. Even with their powerful offense averaging 3.32 goals per game on the season, they've shown they can shut teams down when needed.

When you combine Vegas' home dominance, their recent success against Seattle, their superior motivation, and the Kraken's road struggles, laying the 1.5 goals with the Golden Knights looks like excellent value. This is as close to a slam-dunk play as you'll find on tonight's NHL slate.

The Anaheim Ducks head into Los Angeles tonight as significant underdogs, but there's compelling value in backing them on the puck line. While the Kings are fighting to secure the No. 2 seed in the Pacific Division, several factors point to the Ducks keeping this game within striking distance – making the +1.5 puck line an attractive play with solid value at +118.

What makes this bet particularly appealing is the Ducks' defensive structure and goaltending. When Lukas Dostal is between the pipes, as he's expected to be tonight, Anaheim transforms into a much more competitive team. We saw this on full display in their narrow victory over the high-powered Edmonton Oilers earlier this week. Dostal gives the Ducks a fighting chance against superior opponents by keeping games tight.

The Kings have indeed been playing well defensively, allowing just six goals over their previous six games. However, they're not exactly an offensive juggernaut, ranking just 19th in the league in goals per game at 2.94. Los Angeles also struggles mightily on the power play, ranking 28th in the NHL with a conversion rate that shouldn't strike fear into the Ducks' penalty killers.

Recent history between these Southern California rivals also favors a tight contest. Six consecutive meetings have gone under the total, with each contest seeing five or fewer goals. Low-scoring, defensive affairs naturally favor the underdog on the puck line, as there are fewer opportunities for the favorite to pull away.

While fatigue could be a factor for Anaheim on the second night of a back-to-back, this is mitigated by the short travel distance between these neighboring cities. The Ducks also have nothing to lose at this point in the season, which often allows teams to play loose and free from pressure.

With the Kings' offensive limitations, the Ducks' solid goaltending when Dostal starts, and the historical trend of tight games between these rivals, taking Anaheim +1.5 offers significant value. Even if Los Angeles manages to win, the margin should remain narrow enough for the Ducks to cover the puck line.