As the regular season winds down, Tampa Bay's high-flying offense led by Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel (69 goals, 132 assists combined) meets a Detroit team fighting to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
The contrast couldn't be more stark - the Lightning boast one of the NHL's most potent attacks (3.55 goals per game) backed by Vasilevskiy's brick-wall goaltending (.921 save percentage), while the Red Wings have struggled to find consistent scoring beyond Larkin and Raymond.
Friday night's matchup at Amalie Arena promises plenty of fireworks as the playoff-bound Lightning look to maintain their Atlantic Division standing against a desperate Red Wings squad still searching for answers on both ends of the ice.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Detroit Red Wings matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning an 80% chance of defeating the Wings.
Tampa Bay Lightning: 80% win probability
- Offensive firepower (279 goals scored, 4th in the league)
- Solid defensive record (206 goals against, 7th best in the league)
- Strong home ice advantage (45 wins overall, 4th in Eastern Conference)
Detroit Red Wings: 20% win probability
- Poor road performance (36 wins total, 11th in Eastern Conference)
- Defensive struggles (246 goals against, 6th worst in their conference)
- Inconsistent form (recent form LLWWL shows inability to maintain momentum)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings odds
Here are the latest odds for the NHL matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and the Tampa Bay Lightning, with Tampa Bay hosting on home ice this Friday, April 11.
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Detroit Red Wings | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -275 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) | +230 (via bet365 US) |
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings preview
The Lightning host the Red Wings at Amalie Arena tonight in what could be a lopsided affair, with Tampa Bay looking dominant in the Atlantic Division while Detroit teeters on the edge of playoff elimination.
Tampa's offensive firepower has been nothing short of spectacular this season, averaging 3.55 goals per game with Kucherov and Hagel's combined 69 goals and 132 assists leading the charge.
Detroit's struggles have been evident on both ends of the ice – their 2.81 goals per game offense heavily relies on Larkin and Raymond, while their defense has been leaky, surrendering 3.14 goals per game despite Seider's best efforts.
The goaltending battle couldn't be more one-sided with Tampa's Vasilevskiy posting a stellar .921 save percentage compared to Detroit's shaky netminding.
Look for Hedman to continue his impressive two-way play, having contributed 15 goals and 48 assists while solidifying Tampa's blue line.
Detroit's last outing – a disappointing 4-1 loss to Montreal – doesn't inspire much confidence against a Lightning team that's established itself as a legitimate Cup contender.
The over/under sits at 6.5 goals, which feels right given Tampa's recent offensive outbursts, including 8 goals in their last two games.
While the Lightning dropped their previous game to Toronto 4-3, expect them to bounce back with a vengeance against a Red Wings squad that's running out of gas as the season winds down.
Key stats
- 1Tampa Bay Lightning sits in 4th position in the Eastern Conference with 97 points while Detroit is 11th with 79 points, creating a substantial 18-point gap
- 2Tampa Bay's form shows mixed results (LWLLW) but Detroit has shown inconsistency lately with their LLWWL record
- 3The Lightning boast a positive goal difference of +73 (279 goals for, 206 against) while the Red Wings are in negative territory at -26 (220 scored, 246 conceded)
- 4Tampa Bay has played 78 games with a 45-26-7 record, giving them a .622 win percentage compared to Detroit's 36-35-7 record in 78 games (.462 win percentage)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
33%
Detroit Red Wings
67%
Feb 8, 2025
Detroit Red Wings
3 : 6
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 26, 2025
Detroit Red Wings
2 : 0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 19, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 1
Detroit Red Wings
Apr 1, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Detroit Red Wings
Jan 22, 2024
Detroit Red Wings
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Oct 14, 2023
Detroit Red Wings
6 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
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