The Dallas Mavericks host the Toronto Raptors tonight at American Airlines Center in what could be a turning point for both squads—Dallas desperate to snap their three-game losing streak while Toronto rides the momentum of back-to-back victories.
Recent form tells contrasting stories with the Mavs dropping four of their last five despite their historical dominance over Toronto at home, while the Raptors have surprisingly won six of nine despite missing key players Barrett, Quickley, and Poeltl.
With Dallas needing a win to keep pressure on the ninth-seeded Kings in the Western Conference and Toronto playing with house money, tonight's matchup between the Mavericks and Raptors might just deliver unexpected fireworks on the court.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors matchup, our predictive model gives the Mavs a 72.5% chance of defeating the Raptors.
Dallas Mavericks: 72.5% win probability
- Stronger offensive output (9143 goals for compared to Toronto's 8871)
- Higher league position (10th in Western Conference vs 11th in Eastern Conference)
- Better recent performance with a win included in recent form (LLLWL vs Toronto's WWLLL)
Toronto Raptors: 27.5% win probability
- Poor road performance (as evidenced by their 30-50 overall record)
- Defensive vulnerability (allowed 9194 goals against)
- Inconsistent scoring (8871 goals for ranks among the bottom third in the league)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA matchup between the Toronto Raptors and the home team Dallas Mavericks, scheduled for Friday, April 11.
| Dallas Mavericks | Toronto Raptors | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -590 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +450 (via bet365 US) |
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors preview
The struggling Mavericks (38-42) look to snap a concerning three-game skid when they host the Raptors (30-50) at American Airlines Center on Friday night.
Dallas has gone ice-cold lately, dropping four of their last five games, most recently a disappointing 112-97 home defeat to the Lakers where they mustered just 40 second-half points.
Despite being completely out of playoff contention, Toronto comes in surprisingly hot with wins in six of their last nine, including back-to-back victories capped by a 126-96 demolition of Charlotte.
Keep an eye on Jared Rhoden, who exploded for 23 points off Toronto's bench last game, while Dallas will need more from Naji Marshall who led them with 23 points and 8 assists in their recent loss.
Injuries continue to plague both squads - the Raptors missing RJ Barrett, Quickley and Poeltl, while the Mavs have question marks around Thompson, Exum and Dinwiddie.
The Mavs have historically dominated this matchup at home, winning their last five against the Raptors at American Airlines Center following a loss.
Despite their recent stumbles, Dallas badly needs this win to keep pressure on the ninth-seeded Kings in the Western Conference playoff race.
I'm expecting the desperate Mavericks to finally get back on track against a Toronto team that's essentially playing for pride at this point.
Key stats
- 1Dallas Mavericks sit 10th in Western Conference with a 38-42 record while Toronto Raptors are 11th in Eastern Conference at 30-50
- 2Mavericks have significantly better goal difference (-85) than Raptors (-323)
- 3Raptors have won 2 of their last 5 games (WWLLL) compared to Mavericks' 1 win (LLLWL)
- 4Both teams struggling late in season but Dallas shows better offensive output with 9143 goals scored versus Toronto's 8871
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors form
Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors head to head
Dallas Mavericks
50%
Toronto Raptors
50%
Dec 8, 2024
Toronto Raptors
118 : 125
Dallas Mavericks
Feb 29, 2024
Toronto Raptors
125 : 136
Dallas Mavericks
Nov 9, 2023
Dallas Mavericks
116 : 127
Toronto Raptors
Nov 26, 2022
Toronto Raptors
105 : 100
Dallas Mavericks
Nov 5, 2022
Dallas Mavericks
111 : 110
Toronto Raptors
Jan 20, 2022
Dallas Mavericks
102 : 98
Toronto Raptors
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