NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/11/2025

The Devils host the Penguins tonight in what looks like a prime opportunity for New Jersey to bounce back after their recent stumble against Boston. With the Devils already having secured a playoff berth, they've got nothing to lose and everything to gain as they look to build momentum heading into the postseason.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is effectively done for the season. They've ruled out several key players for their remaining games and are simply going through the motions at this point. Their road record tells the story - a dismal 12-21-7 away from home, where they're surrendering 3.58 goals per game while scoring just 2.67. That's not a recipe for success against a motivated playoff team.

New Jersey hasn't been perfect lately, but they had strung together three consecutive wins before Boston took them down a peg. The Devils have been solid at home (19-14-5) and should find plenty of scoring opportunities against a Penguins team that's essentially raised the white flag on their season.

What makes this bet particularly attractive is the value at +125 for the Devils to win by multiple goals. Given Pittsburgh's defensive struggles on the road and their lack of motivation, New Jersey should be able to create a comfortable cushion. Even without Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton available, the Devils have enough firepower to handle this matchup.

The Penguins have occasionally shown some offensive spark, putting up 15 goals during a four-game stretch earlier this month, but those outbursts have been the exception rather than the rule. With nothing left to play for and key personnel sidelined, expect a flat effort from the visitors and a convincing home win for New Jersey.

Ultimately, this comes down to motivation and circumstances. The Devils are building toward something while the Penguins are playing out the string. New Jersey should bounce back strongly from their recent loss and cover the -1.5 puck line with room to spare.

Friday night's matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Tampa Bay brings one of the NHL's most potent offenses to the table, averaging 3.55 goals per game, while Detroit has been struggling defensively, allowing 3.14 goals per contest. This combination creates a perfect storm for goals.

The Lightning's offensive weapons are simply too numerous to contain for a full 60 minutes. Nikita Kucherov continues his stellar season leading Tampa's attack, with Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point providing excellent secondary scoring. Detroit's defense will have their hands full dealing with this firepower, especially with Victor Hedman quarterbacking the play from the blue line. Even in games where the Lightning don't dominate from the start, they have the ability to explode for multiple goals in short order.

What makes the over particularly appealing is that Detroit won't go quietly either. The Red Wings may be averaging a modest 2.81 goals per game, but they have talented forwards in Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond who can capitalize on scoring chances. Tampa's aggressive offensive style sometimes leaves them vulnerable to counter-attacks, which should give Detroit opportunities to contribute to the goal total.

Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the league's elite goaltenders, but even he isn't immune to occasional off nights, particularly in games where his team is heavily favored and might take their foot off the gas defensively. The Red Wings have nothing to lose at this point and will be looking to play spoiler, which often translates to a more aggressive, chance-taking approach.

Recent betting trends also support this play. The total has gone over in multiple recent Lightning games, and when these teams meet, the offensive talent usually shines. Both teams have motivation: Tampa is positioning for playoff seeding while Detroit is looking to make a statement against a divisional powerhouse.

With offensive talent on both sides and the potential for special teams to play a significant role, backing the over 6.5 goals offers tremendous value. Expect an entertaining, back-and-forth contest with plenty of lamp-lighting from both squads.

The Canadiens head into Ottawa tonight riding a six-game winning streak, and there's plenty of reason to believe they can extend it to seven. At +150 odds, Montreal represents exceptional value against an Ottawa team that hasn't shown the same level of consistency or momentum.

Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have been driving the Canadiens' offense during this hot streak, with the team notching 20 goals across their last six contests. Their ability to carry the puck into the offensive zone with speed and create high-danger scoring chances has overwhelmed opponents. Ottawa's defensive corps will have their hands full containing Montreal's suddenly confident attack.

On the blue line, young phenom Lane Hutson has been a revelation since joining the team, bringing a dynamic offensive element while showing surprising poise in his own zone. Paired with veteran Mike Matheson, the Canadiens' defense is playing with a structure and confidence that wasn't evident earlier in the season. Goaltender Jakub Dobes has stepped up when called upon, giving Montreal solid netminding during this streak.

What makes this bet particularly appealing is that the oddsmakers still view Montreal as significant underdogs despite their current form. The market hasn't fully adjusted to the Canadiens' improved play, creating a value opportunity for astute bettors. While Ottawa has home-ice advantage, the momentum clearly favors the visitors.

The Senators do have offensive firepower with Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson leading the charge, but they've struggled with consistency throughout the season. In what projects as an evenly matched contest between two teams with similar overall talent levels, the current form and momentum factor tips the scales decidedly in Montreal's favor.

At +150, you're getting excellent odds on a team that's playing their best hockey of the season. The Canadiens' confidence is at a season-high, and they're playing with the freedom that comes when expectations have been lifted. Look for Montreal to continue their winning ways in what should be an entertaining Canadian matchup.

Tonight's matchup between the Sharks and Oilers presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking for value. While Edmonton is rightfully favored as they battle for playoff positioning in the Pacific Division, the puck line of Sharks +1.5 at +140 offers compelling value that shouldn't be overlooked.

Yes, San Jose sits at the bottom of the Western Conference with the NHL's worst record. And yes, they've lost seven straight games. But before dismissing them entirely, consider that even the league's cellar-dwellers can keep games close, especially when they're massive underdogs with nothing to lose. The pressure here falls entirely on Edmonton, who needs these points desperately for playoff positioning.

The analytics actually support this play. According to Dimers' predictive model, this bet carries a substantial 6.8% edge with a 48.5% probability of hitting. That's significant value at +140 odds, essentially suggesting the books have overreacted to San Jose's poor season and Edmonton's home-ice advantage.

Edmonton has been struggling to find consistency lately despite winning four of their last six. They've dealt with injury issues throughout the season and while they're getting healthier, they're not completely firing on all cylinders yet. The Oilers may win this game, but covering a multi-goal spread is a different challenge altogether.

The total has gone under in four of the last five games between these teams, indicating tighter, lower-scoring affairs than one might expect. With Calvin Pickard likely in net for Edmonton (2.65 GAA, .901 save percentage), the Oilers might focus more on defensive structure than running up the score.

While I wouldn't recommend the Sharks on the moneyline, the +1.5 puck line provides a cushion that makes this bet worth a serious look. San Jose only needs to lose by one goal (or win outright) for this bet to cash. In a league where one-goal games are common, getting the Sharks at +140 represents one of Friday's strongest value plays.

The Minnesota Wild travel to Calgary tonight with a significant boost to their lineup that the betting markets might not be fully valuing. Superstar Kirill Kaprizov (25 goals, 30 assists) returned to action in their last game, and the impact was immediate – the Wild exploded for eight goals. Joel Eriksson Ek is also back, giving Minnesota offensive depth they've sorely missed.

Calgary's offense has been anemic lately, scoring more than three goals just once in their last eight games. While goaltender Dustin Wolf has been solid with a 2.36 GAA and .915 save percentage in April, the Flames simply haven't provided enough offensive support to win consistently. Against a Minnesota team that's finally getting healthy and finding its scoring touch, Calgary's offensive limitations could be exposed.

The Wild have been a different team when Kaprizov is in the lineup. His creativity, vision, and finishing ability elevate everyone around him, creating more space and opportunities for his linemates. After missing significant time, he'll be motivated to finish the season strong and help Minnesota make a late playoff push.

Calgary will likely approach this game with caution, as they've found more success recently playing a tight-checking style. The Flames excel at blocking shooting lanes and looking to counter, but with Minnesota's added offensive weapons, that strategy becomes more difficult to execute effectively. The Wild have the skill advantage and should be able to break through Calgary's defensive structure.

The betting value here is clear – Minnesota at -130 represents solid value considering the talent disparity with both teams at full strength. While the Flames have home ice, the Wild's improved lineup composition gives them the edge in what should be a competitive game.

With Filip Gustavsson likely back in net for Minnesota and the team's offensive stars returned from injury, expect the Wild to control much of the play. Calgary will battle, but Minnesota's superior skill should prevail in a game that has major implications for both teams' playoff aspirations.