The Miami Heat roll into the Big Easy desperate to halt their recent slide after dropping three of their last four games, including a disappointing 119-111 loss to Chicago where Tyler Herro's 30-point performance wasn't enough to secure victory.

They'll face a New Orleans Pelicans squad that can't catch a break on the injury front, with none of their projected starting five available as they trudge through the second night of a back-to-back after getting pummeled by Milwaukee.

With Miami fighting for playoff positioning and the Pelicans simply trying to limp to the season's finish line, Friday's clash at Smoothie King Center presents a stark contrast between a Heat team with something to play for and a home team that's been reduced to a shell of itself against a hungry away team.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat prediction: who will win?

For today's New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat matchup, our predictive model gives the Heat a 77.5% chance of defeating the Pelicans.

Miami Heat: 77.5% win probability

  • Better overall win percentage (36 wins vs 21 wins)
  • Superior defensive performance (8800 points against vs 9511)
  • Higher position in standings (10th vs 14th in respective conferences)

New Orleans Pelicans: 22.5% win probability

  • Poor recent form (five consecutive losses - LLLLL)
  • Significant defensive struggles (9511 points against, among worst in the league)
  • Low win rate with only 21 victories in 80 games played

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat odds

Here are the latest odds for the NBA showdown between the Miami Heat and the home team New Orleans Pelicans this Friday, April 11.

New Orleans PelicansMiami Heat
Moneyline+570 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)-750 (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat preview

The Heat head to the Big Easy tonight with their playoff positioning on the line, desperately looking to bounce back after dropping three of their last four games, including a frustrating 119-111 defeat to Chicago on Wednesday.

Miami's Tyler Herro has been on fire lately, dropping 30 points against the Bulls, and he'll need to maintain that hot hand if the Heat hope to improve their standing in the Eastern Conference's play-in tournament picture.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, are basically running on fumes - they're without their entire projected starting five, including Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, and just suffered a 136-111 beatdown in Milwaukee last night.

New Orleans has lost 11 of their last 14 games and looks like a team that simply can't wait for this nightmare season to end.

Despite their recent struggles, Miami still has something tangible to play for - they're battling for home-court advantage in the 9/10 play-in game, currently sitting one game behind Chicago for the ninth spot.

The Heat took the first meeting between these teams back on New Year's Day with a 119-108 home victory, and this matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions regarding tempo - Miami ranks 28th in pace while the injury-ravaged Pelicans sit 15th.

With the Pelicans playing their third game in four nights and Miami having had a couple days off to regroup, expect the Heat to take control early against a New Orleans squad that simply doesn't have the personnel to keep pace.

This has all the makings of a much-needed Miami win as they try to build momentum heading into the play-in tournament, while the Pelicans just hope to escape without adding more names to their already crowded injury list.

Key stats

  • 1
    New Orleans Pelicans currently sit in 14th position in the Western Conference with just 21 wins from 80 games
  • 2
    Miami Heat rank 10th in the Eastern Conference with a 36-44 record
  • 3
    New Orleans has the worst recent form in the matchup with 5 straight losses (LLLLL)
  • 4
    Miami Heat have a significantly better defensive record, conceding 9511 points versus Miami's 8800

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat form

New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Latest matches
L
L
L
L
W
Victories
1/5 (20%)
Defeats
4/5 (80%)
Apr 8, 2025
Brooklyn Nets119:114New Orleans Pelicans
Apr 7, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks111:107New Orleans Pelicans
Apr 5, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers124:108New Orleans Pelicans
Apr 3, 2025
Los Angeles Clippers114:98New Orleans Pelicans
Mar 30, 2025
Charlotte Bobcats94:98New Orleans Pelicans
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
L
W
L
L
W
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Apr 10, 2025
Chicago Bulls119:111Miami Heat
Apr 7, 2025
Philadelphia 76ers105:117Miami Heat
Apr 6, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks121:115Miami Heat
Apr 3, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies110:108Miami Heat
Apr 2, 2025
Boston Celtics103:124Miami Heat

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat head to head

New Orleans Pelicans

67%

Miami Heat

33%

Jan 2, 2025

Miami Heat

119 : 108

New Orleans Pelicans

Oct 13, 2024

Miami Heat

101 : 99

New Orleans Pelicans

Mar 23, 2024

Miami Heat

88 : 111

New Orleans Pelicans

Feb 24, 2024

New Orleans Pelicans

95 : 106

Miami Heat

Jan 22, 2023

Miami Heat

100 : 96

New Orleans Pelicans

Jan 19, 2023

New Orleans Pelicans

98 : 124

Miami Heat

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