NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/12/2025

The Philadelphia Flyers welcome the New York Islanders to town Saturday afternoon in what shapes up to be a great opportunity for the home team. Despite their disappointing season, the Flyers have found new life since Brad Shaw took over coaching duties from John Tortorella, winning four of their last five games. There's a noticeable boost in their play that makes them look like a completely different team than the one we saw for most of the season.

The Islanders, meanwhile, are absolutely falling apart down the stretch. They've been leaking goals at an alarming rate, giving up a staggering 4.6 goals per game over their last 10 contests. Their most recent games have been particularly disastrous – surrendering 7 goals to Nashville and 9 to the Rangers. Their defensive collapse has become so pronounced that betting against them almost seems like the default position at this point in the season.

What makes this matchup even more appealing for Philly backers is the Islanders' road woes. New York sports a disappointing 15-17-6 record away from home and hasn't managed a road win since March 18th. That's nearly a month without a victory as the visiting team. The Flyers, while not dominant at home with their 19-19-1 record, have shown enough improvement to exploit these traveling Islanders.

Special teams could also factor heavily in this one. The Islanders sit dead last in penalty kill percentage and next-to-last on the power play – a brutal combination that has contributed significantly to their late-season slide. While Philadelphia doesn't boast an elite power play, they should have opportunities to capitalize against the league's worst penalty-killing unit.

The season series stands at 2-1 in favor of the Islanders, but these teams haven't met since January 30th, and New York was playing much better hockey then. With the Islanders spiraling and the Flyers finding some late-season pride under their new coach, the time is right for Philadelphia to even the series. At these odds, the Flyers moneyline offers solid value against an opponent that's essentially playing out the string with little motivation and even less defensive structure.

The Washington Capitals head to Columbus on Saturday with playoff positioning still up for grabs, giving them plenty of motivation against a Blue Jackets team that's simply playing out the string. Washington has been finding their offensive rhythm at just the right time, scoring 11 goals across their last three games while converting an impressive 23% of their power play opportunities. This offensive uptick couldn't come at a better moment as they face a Columbus team that's struggled defensively.

The Blue Jackets have been particularly vulnerable on their home ice lately, surrendering 11 goals in their last three home games. Their penalty kill has been a significant liability, operating at just 71% efficiency at home recently. This creates a dangerous mismatch against Washington's surging power play unit. The Capitals' sixth-ranked penalty kill (league-wide) should also help neutralize whatever opportunities Columbus might generate with the man advantage.

Looking at recent form, Washington has won three of their last five games while Columbus has dropped three of their last five. This diverging momentum tells part of the story, but the underlying defensive metrics are even more revealing. The Capitals are yielding fewer than three goals per game, showcasing the kind of defensive discipline that wins games in April when playoff spots are on the line.

Columbus's offensive production has been inconsistent at best, managing just eight goals in their last three games. Against Washington's structured defensive approach, the Blue Jackets will likely struggle to generate sustained pressure or quality scoring chances. The Capitals' experience and system under Peter Laviolette gives them a significant edge in these late-season matchups where attention to detail can make all the difference.

The motivation factor cannot be overlooked here either. Washington is playing for playoff seeding and momentum heading into the postseason, while Columbus is essentially evaluating talent for next season. That difference in urgency should be apparent from the opening faceoff, with the Capitals pushing the pace and forcing Columbus to match their intensity. Based on recent performances from both teams, the Blue Jackets simply don't appear capable of matching Washington's combination of offensive production and defensive structure for a full sixty minutes.

The Los Angeles Kings host the Colorado Avalanche Saturday afternoon in what appears to be a golden opportunity for the home team. While these teams would normally be evenly matched, Colorado head coach Jared Bednar has made the strategic decision to rest several key players, including superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews. With the Avalanche already locked into their playoff position and a first-round date with Dallas secured, they're clearly prioritizing rest over results in this contest.

The Kings, meanwhile, still have something to play for with four games left in their season. They've been on an impressive run lately, winning seven of their last ten games while playing some of their best hockey of the year. Their top line has been particularly effective, with veteran Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe finding chemistry with newcomer Andrei Kuzmenko, who has accumulated 14 points in just 18 games since joining Los Angeles. This offensive momentum gives the Kings a significant edge against a depleted Avalanche roster.

The scheduling situation also heavily favors Los Angeles. This will be their fourth consecutive home game and seventh in their last eight contests, providing the comfort and familiarity of playing at Crypto.com Arena. The Kings' recent strong play suggests they've found their rhythm at just the right time, and facing an Avalanche team without its biggest stars presents an ideal opportunity to continue building momentum.

While Colorado still has talented players in their lineup, the absence of MacKinnon (one of the league's premier offensive forces) and Makar (arguably the NHL's top defenseman) creates voids that simply cannot be filled. The Avalanche's defensive structure relies heavily on Makar and Toews' ability to move the puck efficiently out of the defensive zone, and without them, Colorado will likely struggle against Los Angeles' aggressive forecheck.

The Kings have split the season series with Colorado so far, but with the Avalanche resting their stars, Los Angeles has a clear path to victory. As long as they approach this game with proper focus and don't take their opponent lightly despite the missing superstars, the Kings should be able to capitalize on this favorable situation. With their strong recent form and the significant talent advantage they'll enjoy in this matchup, backing Los Angeles on the moneyline represents solid value.

The Vegas Golden Knights welcome the Nashville Predators to T-Mobile Arena Saturday night in what projects to be a decisive victory for the home team. Vegas enters this matchup as one of the Western Conference's elite teams, sporting a well-balanced attack that averages 3.30 goals per game while allowing just 2.61. This kind of two-way efficiency makes them particularly dangerous on home ice, where the crowd energy often fuels dominant performances.

Nashville has struggled offensively all season, averaging a lackluster 2.54 goals per game – a significant disadvantage against Vegas's stingy defense. The Golden Knights' blue line, anchored by Shea Theodore and Noah Hanifin, has been exceptional recently, allowing just eight goals in their last four games. When you pair this defensive prowess with goaltender Adin Hill's steady presence between the pipes, the Predators face an uphill battle to generate meaningful offense.

Looking at Nashville's recent production, they've managed just 21 goals in their last eight games – simply not enough firepower to keep pace with a Vegas team that can score in bunches. Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and the rest of Vegas's formidable forward group should be able to exploit a Nashville defense that's allowing 3.30 goals per game. This significant gap in offensive capability suggests Vegas won't just win, but should cover the -1.5 puck line with room to spare.

The Golden Knights' ability to create turnovers in the defensive zone and quickly transition to offense makes them particularly dangerous against teams like Nashville that struggle to maintain possession. Vegas excels at turning defensive stands into odd-man rushes, putting constant pressure on opposing defenses and goaltenders. Against a Predators team that lacks the elite playmakers to consistently break through Vegas's structured defense, this advantage becomes even more pronounced.

With home-ice advantage and likely playoff positioning still at stake, expect Vegas to come out flying from the opening faceoff. The Golden Knights have shown throughout the season they can suffocate opponents with their defensive structure while simultaneously generating high-danger scoring chances. Against a Nashville team that's struggled to find consistency, this combination should lead to a multi-goal victory for Vegas, making the -1.5 puck line an attractive option at plus-money odds.