The depleted Memphis Grizzlies welcome the Dallas Mavericks to FedExForum Sunday afternoon in what could be a pivotal game for both teams' play-in tournament positioning, with each squad missing several key players including Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Kyrie Irving.

Recent form suggests a potential advantage for the home team, with Memphis boasting an impressive 18-2 record at FedExForum against sub-.500 teams, though Dallas has curiously won six of their last seven day games against the Grizzlies.

Whatever happens, this matchup between two high-octane Western Conference offenses could come down to bench depth and three-point shooting as the Memphis Grizzlies look to secure a higher seed against a Dallas Mavericks team fighting for home-court advantage in the play-in tournament.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction: who will win?

For today's Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks matchup, our predictive model gives the Mavs a 58.25% chance of defeating the Grizzlies.

Dallas Mavericks: 58.25% win probability

  • Better defensive efficiency (Dallas allows 9330 points vs Memphis' 9485 points against)
  • More balanced performance throughout the season (Dallas has been more consistent despite similar record)
  • Critical late-season momentum (Dallas has won 3 of their last 5 games, showing improved form when it matters)

Memphis Grizzlies: 41.75% win probability

  • Defensive vulnerabilities (Memphis has allowed 9485 points, one of the highest in playoff contention teams)
  • Recent inconsistency (Memphis has 2 losses in their last 2 games despite a 'LLWWW' recent form)
  • Poor scoring efficiency (Despite scoring 9848 points, Memphis' point differential is only +363, indicating inefficient offense)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks odds

Here are the latest odds for the upcoming NBA matchup between the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, April 13.

Memphis GrizzliesDallas Mavericks
Moneyline-132 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)+130 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks preview

The Grizzlies host the Mavericks in a crucial late-season showdown that could dramatically impact both teams' play-in tournament positioning, with Memphis fighting for the 7th seed while Dallas is battling to secure home-court advantage in their upcoming play-in matchup against Sacramento.

The depleted Mavs, playing without stars Kyrie Irving and possibly Anthony Davis, are coming off a solid 124-102 win against Toronto that snapped their three-game losing skid, though they've struggled mightily against Western Conference opponents with winning records, dropping their last eight such contests.

Memphis, despite boasting the league's second-highest scoring offense at 121.6 points per game and playing at the NBA's fastest pace, has stumbled lately with losses to Denver and Minnesota, showing troubling signs of a late-season collapse under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo.

The injury report reads like a who's who of stars, with the Grizzlies potentially missing Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr., while Dallas could be without Davis, Thompson, and Washington - turning what should be a playoff preview into something resembling a preseason scrimmage.

Memphis has dominated at home against sub-.500 teams, winning 18 of their last 20 such matchups at FedExForum, but curiously, the Mavericks have covered the spread in six of their last seven visits to Memphis.

History favors the Grizzlies in the recent head-to-head battles as they've won the last two meetings, including a 122-111 road victory in their most recent clash on March 7.

If you're tuning in expecting offensive fireworks, you might be disappointed - with so many key players sidelined, this game feels more likely to grind to an under than showcase the high-scoring potential both teams typically possess.

Regardless of who suits up, this matchup could provide valuable momentum heading into the play-in tournament, where both teams will need every advantage they can get to extend their seasons.

Key stats

  • 1
    Memphis Grizzlies (8th) has significantly better offense than Dallas (10th), scoring 581 more points this season
  • 2
    Dallas Mavericks have identical 39-42 record to Sacramento Kings, sitting just outside playoff qualification
  • 3
    Memphis shows strong recent form (LLWWW) compared to Dallas' inconsistent performance (WLLLW)
  • 4
    The Grizzlies have a positive point differential (+363) while the Mavericks have a negative differential (-63)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks form

Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Latest matches
L
L
W
W
W
Victories
3/5 (60%)
Defeats
2/5 (40%)
Apr 12, 2025
Denver Nuggets117:109Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 11, 2025
Minnesota Timberwolves141:125Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 8, 2025
Charlotte Bobcats100:124Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 5, 2025
Detroit Pistons103:109Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 3, 2025
Miami Heat108:110Memphis Grizzlies
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
Latest matches
W
L
L
L
W
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Apr 12, 2025
Toronto Raptors102:124Dallas Mavericks
Apr 9, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers112:97Dallas Mavericks
Apr 6, 2025
Los Angeles Clippers135:104Dallas Mavericks
Apr 5, 2025
Los Angeles Clippers114:91Dallas Mavericks
Apr 3, 2025
Atlanta Hawks118:120Dallas Mavericks

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks head to head

Memphis Grizzlies

60%

Dallas Mavericks

40%

Apr 13, 2025

Memphis Grizzlies

0 : 0

Dallas Mavericks

Mar 8, 2025

Dallas Mavericks

111 : 122

Memphis Grizzlies

Jan 7, 2025

Memphis Grizzlies

119 : 104

Dallas Mavericks

Dec 4, 2024

Dallas Mavericks

121 : 116

Memphis Grizzlies

Oct 8, 2024

Dallas Mavericks

116 : 121

Memphis Grizzlies

Jul 16, 2024

Memphis Grizzlies

108 : 88

Dallas Mavericks

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