NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/13/2025

The Islanders and Devils face off today in what shapes up to be a tighter, lower-scoring affair than their previous meetings this season. Both teams look dramatically different from when they last met in November, with injuries significantly altering their rosters. The Islanders are missing key offensive weapons like Mathew Barzal and goaltender Ilya Sorokin, while the Devils have been without star Jack Hughes and defenseman Dougie Hamilton for extended periods.

What really stands out is the Islanders' current situation. They were just eliminated from playoff contention yesterday in a shootout loss to Philadelphia, and now they're playing the second half of a back-to-back on the road. That's a recipe for tired legs and a lack of motivation, which typically translates to fewer goals. The Isles have lost 8 of their last 10 games and simply don't have much left to play for at this point in the season.

While their previous matchups this season both finished 4-3 in overtime (comfortably over today's total), those games happened before significant roster changes on both sides. The current iteration of these teams suggests a lower-scoring affair. When teams are depleted by injuries and one is playing on tired legs, the offensive creativity and energy needed to produce goals often diminishes.

The Devils aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard lately either, averaging just 2.9 goals in their last 10 games. At home, they're scoring under 3 goals per game while allowing 2.69. With Carolina looming as their likely first-round playoff opponent, New Jersey will be focused on finding defensive consistency and avoiding injuries rather than running up the score.

I'm backing the under 5.5 at +100 for this matchup. The combination of the Islanders' fatigue, their recent elimination from playoff contention, and significant injuries on both sides points toward a game that stays under the total. Don't be fooled by their earlier high-scoring meetings – these are different teams now, and today's circumstances favor a tighter, lower-scoring contest.

The Penguins host the Bruins today in a matchup of two proud franchises having disappointing seasons, but Pittsburgh has several factors working in their favor. While both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, the Penguins have shown more fight recently, winning 4 of their last 6 games. Boston, meanwhile, has dropped 8 of their last 10, looking like a team that's ready for the season to end.

Home ice advantage is significant here. The Penguins have been solid at PPG Paints Arena with a respectable 20-14-5 record, while the Bruins have been downright awful on the road, posting a dismal 12-25-3 mark away from TD Garden. That stark contrast in road vs. home performance can't be ignored, especially at this point in the season when motivation becomes such a crucial factor.

Boston's offensive struggles have been painfully evident. They rank 29th in the league with just 2.68 goals per game, and that number plummets to 2.45 when they hit the road. In their recent 10-game slide, they've been held to 2 or fewer goals six times. When you can't score, you can't win – it's that simple. Pittsburgh's defense has tightened up lately, which should further frustrate Boston's anemic attack.

The Penguins seem to have found some late-season pride despite being out of the playoff hunt. They're playing for their fans and potentially for jobs next season. Their recent uptick – scoring 12 goals in their last three home games and converting over 25% of their power play opportunities – suggests they're still competing hard while Boston appears to have mentally checked out.

Pittsburgh's special teams edge could be decisive in what might otherwise be a close game between two underperforming teams. The Penguins have been clicking at over 25% on the power play recently, while Boston sits 22nd in penalty killing. One or two power play conversions could easily be the difference in a matchup like this. I'm backing the Penguins moneyline as they should find a way to win this one in front of their home crowd.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are looking like absolute beasts on home ice right now, and they've got the Sabres coming to town today. Tampa's offense is clicking on all cylinders, averaging 3.55 goals per game, which is scary news for a Buffalo team that's giving up nearly 3.5 goals per game this season. When you've got Kucherov, Hagel, and company bearing down on you, things can get ugly fast.

The Lightning's defensive corps shouldn't be overlooked either. They're only allowing 2.60 goals per game, one of the better marks in the league. With Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh shutting things down in their own zone and Vasilevskiy standing tall between the pipes, Buffalo's going to have a tough time generating consistent offense. The Sabres haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire lately.

Look at the recent form for both teams, and it tells a pretty clear story. Tampa is playing like a team with playoff positioning on the line, while Buffalo is just trying to get through the remaining schedule. The Lightning have too much firepower and defensive stability to let this one stay close. They should control play from the opening faceoff and pull away for a comfortable multi-goal win.

What I really like about this bet is that Tampa doesn't just win at home – they tend to win big. Their offensive depth means they can keep coming at you in waves, even if the Sabres manage to shut down the top line for stretches. Vasilevskiy is also looking more and more like his Vezina Trophy self as the season winds down, which doesn't bode well for Buffalo's scoring chances.

This puck line bet at +110 gives us great value considering Tampa's dominance at home and Buffalo's inconsistency. The Lightning should have no problem winning by at least two goals here, making the -1.5 spread an attractive play. I fully expect Tampa to control this game from start to finish and cover the spread with room to spare.

The Capitals and Blue Jackets square off today in what has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Washington is pushing for the best record in the NHL and has been an offensive powerhouse, averaging 3.59 goals per game. With Alexander Ovechkin still hunting records and Dylan Strome having a career year, this Capitals offense can strike quickly and often against weaker opponents.

Columbus brings their own offensive capabilities to the table, averaging a respectable 3.17 goals per game. What makes this matchup particularly appealing for the over is Columbus's defensive vulnerability – they're allowing 3.40 goals per game. When you combine a decent offensive team with poor defensive habits against a high-powered offense like Washington's, the scoreboard tends to light up frequently.

The Capitals' offensive approach should create plenty of opportunities in this game. John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun are offensive-minded defensemen who love to jump into the play and quarterback the power play. This aggressive blue-line activation creates odd-man situations that can overwhelm a struggling defensive team like Columbus. Expect Washington to push the pace from the opening faceoff.

While Washington's defense has been solid overall (2.72 GAA), they might play a bit looser in this game as they look to generate offense. Columbus has players like Kirill Marchenko and Kent Johnson who can capitalize if given space. The Blue Jackets have nothing to lose at this point in the season and will likely play an open, aggressive style rather than try to lock things down defensively.

The special teams matchup also favors goals. Washington's power play remains dangerous with Ovechkin's one-timer always a threat, while Columbus's penalty kill has been inconsistent all season. Multiple power play goals could push this total over by themselves. At this late stage of the season with Washington pushing for playoff positioning and Columbus playing freely, expect an entertaining, high-scoring game that easily surpasses the 6.5 total.