The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies face off in a high-stakes Western Conference play-in game that could define both teams' seasons.
Stephen Curry and the Warriors enter as 6.5-point favorites after dominating the regular season series 3-1, including a 51-point explosion from Curry in their most recent matchup.
Despite Ja Morant's 23+ points per game and Memphis ranking second in NBA scoring, the Grizzlies' questionable defensive capabilities and late-season coaching change have left them vulnerable heading into Chase Center, where they've historically struggled.
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 76.25% chance of defeating the Grizzlies.
Golden State Warriors: 76.25% win probability
- Superior scoring efficiency (9331 points scored vs 9060 points allowed)
- Home court advantage as the higher-seeded team (7th in Western Conference)
- Better recent form (LWLWL shows more consistency than Memphis' alternating pattern)
Memphis Grizzlies: 23.75% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (allowed 9582 points, significantly more than Warriors' 9060)
- Poor road performance (Warriors finished ahead of Grizzlies in standings despite identical 48-34 records)
- Inconsistent offensive execution (despite scoring more points overall at 9980, finished with same record as Warriors)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies odds
Here are the latest odds for this NBA clash as the Golden State Warriors host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday, April 15 at Chase Center.
| Golden State Warriors | Memphis Grizzlies | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -305 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | +260 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies preview
The Warriors and Grizzlies collide in a high-stakes Western Conference play-in showdown at Chase Center, where Golden State looks to snap their 0-3 all-time record in play-in games.
Steph Curry, who torched Memphis for 51 points in their last meeting, leads a Warriors squad that won three of four regular-season matchups against the Grizzlies but enters on shaky ground after a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Clippers.
Memphis, despite finishing with an identical 48-34 record, stumbles into the play-in having lost six of their final ten regular season games and navigating a late-season coaching change.
Ja Morant's explosive scoring (23.2 PPG) and rookie Zach Edey's rebounding prowess will need to overcome a banged-up supporting cast, with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. listed as game-time decisions.
Jimmy Butler's midseason arrival has transformed Golden State's identity, adding grit to complement Curry's offensive fireworks, while NBA Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Draymond Green anchors a defense that's been stingy at holding opponents under 112 points per game.
The winner advances to face the Houston Rockets in the first round, with both teams bringing contrasting styles—Memphis' second-ranked scoring offense against Golden State's playoff-tested championship pedigree.
Key stats
- 1Both teams finished the regular season with identical 48-34 records, placing them 7th and 8th in the Western Conference
- 2The Warriors have struggled with consistency, posting a LWLWL pattern in their last five games
- 3Memphis shows better recent form with a WLLWW record in their last five games
- 4Memphis scored 649 more points than they allowed this season (9980-9582), while Golden State had a narrower positive margin of 271 points (9331-9060)
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies form
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies head to head
Golden State Warriors
100%
Memphis Grizzlies
0%
Apr 2, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
125 : 134
Golden State Warriors
Jan 5, 2025
Golden State Warriors
121 : 113
Memphis Grizzlies
Dec 20, 2024
Memphis Grizzlies
144 : 93
Golden State Warriors
Nov 16, 2024
Golden State Warriors
123 : 118
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 21, 2024
Golden State Warriors
137 : 116
Memphis Grizzlies
Feb 3, 2024
Memphis Grizzlies
101 : 121
Golden State Warriors
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