The Toronto Maple Leafs, riding high after clinching the Atlantic Division with four straight wins, host the struggling Detroit Red Wings in Thursday's regular season finale at Scotiabank Arena.
While Toronto looks to maintain momentum heading into the playoffs behind their formidable goaltending tandem, Detroit enters on the second night of a back-to-back with little motivation after being eliminated from playoff contention.
The Maple Leafs' offensive firepower, led by 100-point scorer Mitch Marner, faces a Red Wings squad that has dropped 13 of their last 21 games and ranks near the bottom in both scoring and defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 75% chance of defeating the Wings.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 75% win probability
- Elite offensive production (264 goals scored ranks 4th in Eastern Conference)
- Strong home ice advantage (2nd in Eastern Conference with 106 points)
- Exceptional recent form (WWWWL in last five games showing consistent performance)
Detroit Red Wings: 25% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (255 goals against, 10th worst in Eastern Conference)
- Poor road performance (10th place standing with only 85 points)
- Inconsistent recent results (WWWLL showing difficulty maintaining momentum)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings odds
Here are the latest odds for this NHL matchup as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday, April 17.
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Detroit Red Wings | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -134 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +125 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) |
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings preview
The Maple Leafs head into Thursday's season finale riding high after clinching the Atlantic Division title and securing the Eastern Conference's second seed with a dominant 4-0 shutout of Buffalo earlier this week.
Detroit, meanwhile, has been eliminated from playoff contention despite Monday's 6-4 victory over Dallas, capping a disappointing stretch where they've dropped 13 of their last 21 games.
Toronto's goaltending tandem has been stellar down the stretch, with Anthony Stolarz (2.14 GAA, .926 SV%) and Joseph Woll (2.72 GAA, .909 SV%) backstopping a team that's won eight of its last nine contests.
Fatigue could be a significant factor as the Red Wings face the grueling challenge of playing on consecutive nights after Wednesday's matchup with New Jersey.
While Toronto's stars like Mitch Marner (100 points) and William Nylander (45 goals) may see limited ice time with nothing left to play for, the Leafs' depth and home-ice advantage should still pose problems for a Detroit squad that ranks 24th in goals scored and dead last in penalty killing.
Key stats
- 1Toronto sits 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 106 points through 81 games, showing elite consistency
- 2The Maple Leafs boast a significantly better goal differential (+36) than Detroit (-20), suggesting a clear quality gap
- 3Detroit ranks 10th in the Eastern Conference with 85 points, sitting just outside playoff position
- 4Recent form heavily favors Toronto (WWWWL) compared to Detroit's more inconsistent results (WWWLL)
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Detroit Red Wings head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
67%
Detroit Red Wings
33%
Dec 28, 2024
Detroit Red Wings
2 : 5
Toronto Maple Leafs
Dec 15, 2024
Detroit Red Wings
4 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 9, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 1
Detroit Red Wings
Oct 5, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Detroit Red Wings
Oct 3, 2024
Detroit Red Wings
0 : 2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 5
Detroit Red Wings
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