The New York Rangers look to build on their recent momentum as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a high-stakes showdown at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night.
Tampa Bay enters the contest with the NHL's top-ranked offense (292 goals) and the red-hot Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, while the Rangers aim to capitalize on their narrow edge in win probability against the Eastern Conference powerhouse.
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Rangers a 58.5% chance of defeating the Lightning.
New York Rangers: 58.5% win probability
- Home ice advantage will be crucial as New York looks to capitalize on Madison Square Garden's energy (39 home points this season)
- Offensive potential despite recent struggles (252 goals scored, 11th in Eastern Conference)
- Motivated to improve playoff positioning with regular season winding down (currently 11th in East with 83 points)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 41.5% win probability
- Recent inconsistency with a mixed 2-2-1 form in their last five games (WWLLW)
- Road performance issues have plagued them this season (away record contributing to their 102 points)
- Defensive lapses have been concerning (215 goals against, putting them in the middle of the pack defensively)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning odds
Here are the latest odds for the NHL showdown between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the home team New York Rangers on Thursday, April 17.
| New York Rangers | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 (via BetMGM Sportsbook) | +120 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
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New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The surging Tampa Bay Lightning bring their league-leading offense to Madison Square Garden as they face a Rangers squad looking to build momentum after their recent win against Florida.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a wall in net for Tampa Bay with a stellar .917 save percentage throughout his career, while Igor Shesterkin will counter for the Rangers with an identical .917 career mark in what promises to be an elite goaltending duel.
Fresh off a convincing 5-1 victory over the Panthers, the Lightning's special teams could be a deciding factor, converting an impressive 26.13% of their power play opportunities this season.
Despite their middling 37-36-7 record, the Rangers showed they can hang with the best after defeating Florida 5-3 in their previous outing.
Both teams have been generating plenty of offensive chances with over 2,300 shots each on the season, setting the stage for what should be a compelling Eastern Conference showdown.
Key stats
- 1Tampa Bay sits 3rd in the Eastern Conference with 102 points through 81 games, while the Rangers rank 11th with 83 points
- 2The Lightning have scored 294 goals (2nd most in East) compared to the Rangers' 252 goals
- 3Tampa Bay boasts a strong recent form of WWLLW, while New York has struggled with WLWLL
- 4The Lightning have a significant defensive edge, allowing 215 goals versus the Rangers' 255 goals allowed
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
New York Rangers
50%
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Apr 7, 2025
New York Rangers
1 : 5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 29, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
6 : 2
New York Rangers
Mar 14, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
6 : 3
New York Rangers
Feb 8, 2024
New York Rangers
3 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 31, 2023
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 : 5
New York Rangers
Apr 5, 2023
New York Rangers
6 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
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