NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/18/2025

The Heat showed serious defensive prowess in their play-in win against Chicago, holding one of the NBA's top offenses to just 90 points on sub-40% shooting. Miami has had success containing Trae Young in recent matchups, winning their last two regular season meetings by double digits.

Tyler Herro looked unstoppable in Miami's win over Chicago, dropping 38 points on efficient 13-19 shooting. The Heat's balanced attack with Andrew Wiggins (20 points) and Bam Adebayo (15 points, 12 rebounds) gives them multiple scoring options against Atlanta's suspect defense.

The Hawks' struggles were evident in their blowout loss to Orlando, shooting just 38% from the field and an abysmal 4-21 from three. Trae Young's defensive limitations remain a serious issue, one that Miami will likely exploit with multiple ball handlers.

Atlanta is still missing key pieces in Clint Capela, Larry Nance Jr., and Jalen Johnson, leaving them vulnerable inside against Adebayo, who's averaging 21.7 points and 9.1 rebounds over his last 10 games. The Hawks allowed 58 paint points against Orlando, a troubling sign facing Miami's interior presence.

While Atlanta does have a positive home record this season, Miami's playoff experience and defensive intensity give them the edge in this elimination game. The Heat have covered the spread in five of their last six road games, suggesting they're finding their rhythm at the perfect time.

Both teams bring elite rim protection to this matchup, setting up a potential defensive battle. The Mavericks have ranked in the top 10 in blocks over their last 10 regular season games with Anthony Davis and Daniel Gafford patrolling the paint, while Memphis counters with former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr.

Ja Morant's questionable status with an ankle injury is a crucial factor here. Even if he plays, his explosiveness—the engine of Memphis' transition offense—will likely be compromised. The Grizzlies ranked 4th in pace over their final 10 games, but that could significantly slow without a fully healthy Morant.

The defensive expertise on both sides will force tough outside shots rather than easy interior looks. Memphis ranked 6th in opponent points in the paint during their final stretch of games, while Dallas has turned opponents into jump shooters with their imposing frontcourt rotation.

The high-stakes play-in environment typically produces tighter, more deliberate basketball as teams prioritize possessions and defensive stops. Both squads understand the elimination nature of this contest, likely leading to more conservative offensive approaches.

Dallas has found defensive identity with their size, deploying AD, Gafford, Lively, and Washington to dominate the boards and alter shots. This rim protection has been transforming opponents into outside shooters, a trend that should continue against a potentially hobbled Grizzlies offense.

The Mavericks enter this play-in matchup with improving health and momentum after their win against Sacramento. Their frontcourt depth with Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and PJ Washington gives them a significant advantage on the boards and in paint protection.

Memphis faces serious uncertainty surrounding Ja Morant's ankle injury. As a player who relies heavily on explosiveness and acceleration, even if he suits up, he'll likely be limited in effectiveness. The Grizzlies' offense drops significantly when Morant isn't at full strength.

Dallas has discovered strong complementary scoring beyond their stars, with Brandon Williams stepping up as a consistent offensive threat. This balanced attack makes them less predictable and more difficult to defend, especially against a Grizzlies team that's been inconsistent over the past couple months.

The Mavericks' size advantage is creating problems on both ends—generating easy interior buckets offensively while forcing opponents into jump shots defensively. Against Memphis, this advantage could be magnified if Morant's injury limits the Grizzlies' transition opportunities.

Recent trends support Dallas as the value play here. The Grizzlies have lost nine of their last 10 night games against Western Conference opponents, while the Mavs have covered in six of their last seven night games at FedExForum. The line seems inflated considering Memphis's recent form and injury concerns.