NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/19/2025

The Milwaukee Bucks enter the playoffs riding an impressive 8-game winning streak despite missing Damian Lillard, showing remarkable adaptability. During the regular season, they dominated the Pacers, winning 3 of 4 matchups with their lone loss coming by just a single point.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has elevated his playmaking in Lillard's absence, dishing out an incredible 51 assists over his final 4 regular season games. The Greek Freak poses a significant physical mismatch against Pascal Siakam, who simply doesn't have the size to contain him one-on-one.

Milwaukee's offense has been firing on all cylinders, leading the NBA in offensive rating over the final 10 games of the regular season. They've also paced the league in true shooting percentage during that stretch, suggesting their scoring efficiency remains elite even without Lillard.

Bobby Portis provides Milwaukee with a significant X-factor, as he averaged a double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) against Indiana this season. His energy and scoring punch off the bench could prove decisive in a tight playoff opener.

The playoff experience gap favors Milwaukee significantly, and underdogs have covered in 10 of the Pacers' last 11 home games. With the Bucks winning their last four games outright as underdogs and the Pacers dropping their last four playoff games, all signs point to this being much closer than the spread suggests.

The Clippers-Nuggets total presents excellent value in what sets up to be a high-scoring Game 1 in Denver. Despite both teams having strong defensive reputations, this matchup has all the ingredients for an offensive showcase in the altitude of Ball Arena.

The Nuggets boast one of the league's most efficient offenses behind MVP candidate Nikola Jokic's triple-double average (29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG). Denver scores at an elite 120.8 points per game while shooting 50.6% from the field, metrics that have remained consistent even with their coaching change.

Los Angeles enters the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in basketball, having won their last eight games and 18 of their final 21. The Clippers' offensive resurgence has been fueled by James Harden (22.8 PPG, 8.7 APG) and a supporting cast including Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac finding their rhythm at the perfect time.

Both teams feature multiple scoring threats who can create mismatches. Denver's defensive rating ranks in the bottom 10, particularly struggling against high-level competition - precisely what the Clippers represent. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will push the pace to neutralize the Nuggets' half-court defense.

The altitude factor at Ball Arena typically favors higher-scoring affairs, especially in Game 1 scenarios where visiting teams haven't yet fully acclimated. With both squads entering the playoffs relatively healthy and well-rested, expect efficient offensive execution leading to a game finishing closer to 230 total points than the posted 223.5.

The Detroit Pistons are getting significant value as underdogs against the Knicks at MSG, with multiple analytics models supporting this play. Detroit brings a physical, tough-minded approach that could frustrate the Knicks, and they've actually won their last three meetings against New York.

While the Knicks boast more playoff experience, the Pistons have quietly transformed into a respectable team following last season's historically poor campaign. Cade Cunningham (26.1 PPG, 9.1 APG) has emerged as a legitimate star, giving Detroit the go-to scoring option needed in tight playoff games.

Madison Square Garden will undoubtedly provide a raucous atmosphere, which likely explains the inflated line. However, analytics suggest the true spread should be closer to 4 points rather than the current 6.5, creating a 2.5% edge according to Dimers' model.

The Knicks have struggled against Central Division opponents, failing to cover in nine of their last ten such matchups following a win. Detroit's physical frontcourt anchored by Jalen Duren (10.3 RPG) should help neutralize New York's size advantage with Towns in the lineup.

While the Knicks may ultimately win this opener, the Pistons have enough firepower to keep it within the number. Detroit has covered the spread in eight straight night games against Atlantic Division opponents, suggesting they perform well in this specific situational spot.

The Lakers-Timberwolves matchup sets up perfectly for an under in Game 1, with both teams likely to establish defensive intensity early in the series. Their regular season meeting after the Luka Doncic trade resulted in a low-scoring affair, suggesting points will be at a premium.

Minnesota brings elite defensive personnel into this matchup, ranking 7th in defensive efficiency since March while the Lakers sit at just 18th during that same stretch. The Timberwolves' combination of Rudy Gobert in the paint and perimeter defenders like Jaden McDaniels gives them the tools to make life difficult for the Lakers' stars.

Los Angeles has successfully masked their defensive deficiencies under coach JJ Redick's system, particularly at home where they've won 13 of their last 14 against Western Conference opponents. The playoff atmosphere at Crypto.com Arena should further intensify defensive efforts from both squads.

The Lakers' lack of size could be problematic against Minnesota's frontcourt of Gobert, Naz Reid and Julius Randle, but they'll compensate by slowing the pace and relying on LeBron's playoff experience to control tempo. This grinding approach naturally suppresses scoring.

With Anthony Edwards likely to draw the Lakers' primary defensive attention and both teams entering their first playoff game with heightened focus, expect a feeling-out process that leads to deliberate possessions and tough shot-making requirements. The total of 216.5 appears a few points too high for what projects as a gritty series opener.