The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) host the eighth-seeded Miami Heat (37-45) in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series on Sunday night at Rocket Arena, with Cleveland entering as heavy 12.5-point favorites.
The Heat earned their playoff spot the hard way, becoming the first team to win two road games in the play-in tournament by dispatching both Chicago and Atlanta, while the well-rested Cavaliers look to leverage their league-best offense (121.9 PPG) and dominant 34-7 home record.
This matchup features a stark contrast in momentum and rest, with Miami riding high after Tyler Herro's 30-point performance against Atlanta, while Cleveland aims to recapture their form after losing three of their final five regular season games.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 54.75% chance of defeating the Heat.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 54.75% win probability
- League-best record (64-18 in the Eastern Conference)
- Offensive firepower (9999 points scored, highest in the NBA)
- Strong home-court advantage (First seed typically indicates excellent home performance)
Miami Heat: 45.25% win probability
- Subpar road record (37-45 overall record suggests struggles away from home)
- Inconsistent recent form (LWLWL in last five games)
- Scoring inefficiency (9069 points scored, significantly below Cleveland's offensive output)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA matchup between the Miami Heat and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who host on Sunday, April 20.
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -750 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +550 (via bet365 US) |
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat preview
Cleveland's top-seeded Cavaliers host the eighth-seeded Miami Heat Sunday night in what could be a far more competitive series than the standings suggest.
The Cavaliers, led by Donovan Mitchell's 24 points per game, racked up an impressive 64-18 record and dominated at home with a stellar 34-7 mark at Rocket Arena.
Miami earned their playoff berth the hard way, becoming the first team in NBA play-in tournament history to win twice on the road behind Tyler Herro's 30-point performance against Atlanta.
Despite Cleveland taking two of three regular-season matchups, the Heat have historically given the Cavaliers trouble, holding an 80-53 edge in their all-time series.
The Cavaliers' elite offense (ranked 1st at 121.9 PPG) faces a Heat defense that's allowed just 107.9 points over their last ten games, setting up an intriguing clash of strengths.
With Miami missing Kevin Love (personal) and the Cavaliers potentially getting back to full strength, the home team's rest advantage could prove decisive in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference first-round matchup.
Key stats
- 1Cleveland sits atop the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record, showing elite form throughout the season
- 2Miami ranks 10th in the East with a 37-45 record, making them significant underdogs in this matchup
- 3The Cavaliers boast the best scoring differential in the East, scoring 9999 points while allowing 9217 (+782)
- 4Recent form heavily favors Cleveland (LWLWL) compared to Miami's inconsistent performance (LWLWL), though both teams have identical patterns in their last five games
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat form
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat head to head
Cleveland Cavaliers
60%
Miami Heat
40%
Apr 20, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
0 : 0
Miami Heat
Mar 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
112 : 107
Miami Heat
Jan 30, 2025
Miami Heat
106 : 126
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dec 8, 2024
Miami Heat
122 : 113
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mar 24, 2024
Miami Heat
121 : 84
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mar 20, 2024
Cleveland Cavaliers
104 : 107
Miami Heat
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