NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/20/2025

Despite facing the top-seeded Thunder, the Grizzlies enter with momentum after their play-in victory over Dallas behind strong performances from Jaren Jackson Jr. (24 points) and Ja Morant (22 points).

Multiple analytics models identify value on this spread, with one showing a 2.7% edge and 55.1% probability of Memphis covering this large number.

Though Oklahoma City swept the regular season series, playoff intensity tends to tighten margins, particularly in Game 1 when teams are still feeling each other out.

The Grizzlies' midseason coaching change could provide a tactical advantage against a Thunder team that may be dealing with the pressure of championship expectations as the Western Conference's top seed.

While the Thunder boast an impressive 35-6 home record, this two-touchdown spread provides significant cushion for a Memphis squad with enough star power in Morant and Jackson to keep things competitive.

The Magic enter this Game 1 matchup riding impressive momentum, having won 6 of their last 7 real contests and dominating Atlanta 120-95 in their play-in game on Tuesday.

Orlando actually won 2 of 3 head-to-head matchups against the Celtics during the regular season, including a 14-point victory on December 23.

Boston's week-long layoff could work against them, potentially leaving them rusty against a sharp Magic squad that stayed game-ready through the play-in tournament.

While Boston clearly has superior talent and should win outright, the Magic have demonstrated they can keep games competitive with their defensive mindset and balanced scoring attack.

Multiple expert sources have identified this large spread as exploitable, with analytics models showing a 3.7% edge on this play with a 55.6% probability of covering.

The Heat and Cavaliers have established a clear pattern in their head-to-head matchups this season, with all three regular season contests surpassing the 215-point threshold.

Cleveland finished the regular season with the NBA's best offensive rating while ranking 10th in pace, suggesting they'll look to push tempo against a potentially fatigued Miami squad.

The Heat have been running more than expected recently, ranking 6th in fast break points per game over their final 10 regular season contests - an area where Cleveland has struggled defensively (25th in points allowed).

Tyler Herro enters on a scoring tear after dropping 30+ in consecutive play-in games, including a 38-point outburst, and has averaged 28 points against Cleveland this season.

Both teams closed the regular season shooting efficiently from beyond the arc, ranking in the top 10 in three-pointers made over their last 10 games, which should support a higher-scoring affair.

The Warriors and Rockets played five times during the regular season, with four of those matchups seeing at least one team fail to reach 100 points and the games averaging just 194.5 points.

Playoff basketball traditionally features a significantly slower pace and more intense defensive focus, which should benefit these teams who already ranked 5th and 7th in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

Only one of their five regular season meetings exceeded the projected 213-point total, suggesting this number might be artificially inflated for playoff expectations.

Both teams will likely tighten their rotations for the postseason, leading to more predictable matchups and better defensive game planning than we saw in the regular season.

The intensity of a playoff opener tends to create more deliberate possessions and lower shooting percentages, especially for Houston's young roster making their first postseason appearance.