The Toronto Maple Leafs look to take a commanding 2-0 series lead when they host the Ottawa Senators in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup on Tuesday night at Scotiabank Arena.
After cruising to a dominant 6-2 victory in the series opener, Toronto's potent offense—which netted three power play goals from six different scorers—will aim to continue their momentum against a Senators squad that must avoid costly penalties after racking up 38 penalty minutes in Game 1.
The provincial rivals renew their bitter playoff history with Ottawa desperately needing to steal a road win before the series shifts to Canadian Tire Centre for Games 3 and 4.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 75% chance of defeating the Sens.
Toronto Maple Leafs: 75% win probability
- Exceptional offensive firepower (268 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Perfect recent form (5-0-0 in last five games, riding a hot WWWWW streak)
- Higher league standing (2nd in Eastern Conference with 108 points vs Ottawa's 6th place)
Ottawa Senators: 25% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performances (3-2-0 record with WLWWL pattern showing vulnerability)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (234 goals against, significantly more than Toronto's opponents allowed)
- Road game disadvantage (facing 2nd place Toronto on their home ice where they've been dominant all season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators odds
Here are the latest odds for the NHL matchup between the Ottawa Senators and the Toronto Maple Leafs, with Toronto hosting at home on Tuesday, April 22.
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Ottawa Senators | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -182 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | +160 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators preview
The Maple Leafs delivered a statement in Game 1, dismantling the Senators 6-2 despite being outshot 33-24 in a performance that showcased Toronto's clinical playoff efficiency.
Ottawa now faces the critical task of avoiding a 2-0 deficit before the series shifts to Canadian Tire Centre, with discipline emerging as a key factor after taking 15 penalties that led to three Toronto power play goals.
Toronto's balanced attack saw six different players find the net in the opener, while Anthony Stolarz proved reliable with 31 saves, continuing the Leafs' impressive stretch of winning 10 of their last 11 games.
The provincial rivals have a loaded playoff history with Toronto having won all four previous series, though Ottawa entered this matchup having gone 3-0 against the Leafs during the regular season.
Linus Ullmark will likely get another chance between the pipes for Ottawa despite his .750 save percentage in Game 1, as the Senators look to recapture the form that saw them go 6-1-1 to close out the regular season.
Key stats
- 1Toronto sits 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 108 points, showing strong form with a WWWWW recent record
- 2Ottawa ranks 6th in the Eastern Conference with 97 points, 11 points behind Toronto
- 3The Maple Leafs have a +37 goal differential (268 scored, 231 conceded) compared to Ottawa's +9 (243 scored, 234 conceded)
- 4Toronto has won 52 games this season while Ottawa has won 45, giving Toronto a significant edge in overall win rate
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators form
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators head to head
Toronto Maple Leafs
17%
Ottawa Senators
83%
Apr 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
6 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Mar 15, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Jan 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
0 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Sep 24, 2024
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Sep 22, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
5 : 6
Ottawa Senators
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