NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/22/2025

The Bucks are poised for a bounce-back performance after dropping Game 1 to the Pacers 117-98. The key factor here is Damian Lillard's expected return, giving Milwaukee the offensive spark they desperately lacked in the series opener.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was dominant in Game 1 with 36 points and 12 rebounds, but received virtually no help from his supporting cast. Adding Lillard back into the mix dramatically changes Milwaukee's offensive ceiling and should address their ball movement issues – they managed just 15 assists in the opener.

The Pacers benefited from an unsustainable shooting disparity in Game 1, where the Bucks went just 9-for-37 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Indiana's star Tyrese Haliburton struggled, shooting 3-for-13 from the field and 0-for-7 from deep – yet they still won comfortably.

Milwaukee's desperation factor can't be overlooked here. Playoff teams rarely want to go down 0-2, and the Bucks understand the urgency of stealing a road game before the series shifts to their home court. The spread gives them cushion even if they don't win outright.

The Pacers committed just 5 turnovers in Game 1, an anomaly that's unlikely to continue against an aggressive Bucks defense. With Lillard back and the natural regression of shooting percentages, expect a much tighter contest that the Bucks could very well win outright.

The Thunder demolished the Grizzlies 131-80 in Game 1, but there's solid value on Memphis covering this massive spread in Game 2. Multiple experts have identified this as their top play, with analytics models showing a 56.1% probability of Memphis covering.

The Grizzlies shot a dismal 34% from the field and just 6-for-34 from three-point range in Game 1 – numbers that should naturally regress toward their season averages. Memphis ranked 6th in offensive rating this season, suggesting their 80-point output was an anomaly rather than a trend.

Memphis has historically performed well in bounce-back situations, and there's a clear statistical case for improvement. The Grizzlies' offensive struggles in Game 1 (particularly from deep at 17.6%) came from a team that averaged 36.7% from three during the regular season, signaling an impending correction.

Look for Zach Edey to continue making an impact on the offensive glass against a Thunder team that ranked 24th in opponent second-chance points. The rookie had 4 offensive rebounds in limited minutes during Game 1 and could create extra possessions for Memphis.

While the Thunder remain the superior team and likely winners, this spread is inflated by the Game 1 blowout. Playoff series typically tighten up after openers, and Memphis has the offensive firepower to keep this one within the number.

The Memphis-OKC total presents excellent value after Game 1's combined 211 points misleadingly suggests these teams might struggle offensively. A deeper look shows the Thunder scored an explosive 131 points while Memphis' 80-point output was a statistical outlier.

Both teams play at blistering paces, ranking 1st and 5th in the NBA in pace during the regular season. More possessions naturally lead to more scoring opportunities, and we should see this dynamic play out in Game 2 with the Grizzlies making offensive adjustments.

The Thunder have consistently solved the Grizzlies' defense, scoring 120+ points in five games against Memphis this season. OKC's offensive efficiency against this particular opponent shows a clear pattern that's likely to continue in Game 2.

Memphis' shooting performance in Game 1 was historically poor and unsustainable. They shot just 34% from the field and an abysmal 17.6% from three-point range. The Grizzlies finished the season 6th in offensive rating and should see significant improvement in their shooting percentages.

Look for Memphis' offensive regression to the mean, combined with Oklahoma City's already proven scoring ability, to push this total over the number. The Thunder's rebounding weakness (ranked 24th in opponent second-chance points) could also lead to extra scoring opportunities for the Grizzlies.

The Timberwolves grabbed control of this series with their Game 1 victory and now have an opportunity to take a commanding 2-0 lead before heading back to Minnesota. Their defense has been smothering, holding the Lakers to just 95 points on 39.8% shooting in the opener.

Minnesota enters Game 2 with tremendous momentum, having won 18 of their last 22 games dating back to March 2. This isn't a fluke – the Wolves have established themselves as a legitimate contender behind the offensive firepower of Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels (25 points, 9 rebounds in Game 1), and Naz Reid (23 points).

The matchup problems that plagued the Lakers in Game 1 haven't disappeared. Minnesota's size advantage with Gobert, Reid, and Randle creates defensive mismatches that even the star power of LeBron and Doncic can't easily overcome. McDaniels' defensive prowess further complicates things for the Lakers' offensive flow.

While the Lakers will be desperate to avoid going down 0-2 at home, history favors the Wolves in this spot. Minnesota has won six of their last nine games against the Lakers and has covered the spread in each of their last seven playoff games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a win.

The Timberwolves are the deeper team with better defensive personnel, making the 5.5-point cushion incredibly valuable. Even if the Lakers manage to pull out a victory, the margin is likely to be tight as Minnesota has proven they can effectively contain the Lakers' offensive attack.