The Florida Panthers look to build on their dominant Game 1 performance and take a commanding 2-0 series lead as they face the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2 of their NHL Eastern Conference first-round playoff series on Thursday night.
After dismantling the Lightning 6-2 in the opener behind Matthew Tkachuk's return and a perfect 3-for-3 power play execution, Florida aims to continue their physical forecheck and defensive pressure against a Tampa Bay squad that appeared overwhelmed and may be without key penalty killer Anthony Cirelli.
The Lightning and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy must rebound quickly after a subpar performance where he saved just 10 of 16 shots, as the defending Stanley Cup champions have now won 11 of their last 15 meetings against their Florida rivals.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers matchup, our predictive model gives the Panthers a 80% chance of defeating the Lightning.
Florida Panthers: 80% win probability
- Consistent offensive threat (252 goals scored this season)
- Strong defensive structure (223 goals against, 5th best in Eastern Conference)
- Excellent recent form (LLWWW with 3 wins in last 5 games)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 20% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (219 goals against, ranking in middle of pack)
- Recent form concerns (LWWLL with 3 losses in last 5 games)
- Inconsistent home performance (contributed to 27 total losses on the season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers odds
Here are the current odds for the NHL clash between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning, as the Lightning host their in-state rivals at home on Thursday, April 24.
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -125 (via Caesars Sportsbook) | +105 (via Caesars Sportsbook) |
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers preview
The defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers look to take a stranglehold on their first-round series after a dominant 6-2 road victory in Game 1 where they converted all three power play opportunities and outhit Tampa Bay 48-28.
Matthew Tkachuk made an emphatic return from a two-month absence with two power-play goals and an assist, while Nate Schmidt also netted a pair for Florida.
Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy, typically one of hockey's elite netminders, struggled mightily - allowing six goals on just 16 shots in a performance he'll be desperate to put behind him.
The Lightning, who won two of the last three playoff series against their in-state rivals, face additional concerns with Anthony Cirelli - their top defensive forward and penalty kill specialist - leaving Game 1 with an injury.
With Florida having won 11 of the last 15 meetings against Tampa Bay, Lightning coach Jon Cooper must quickly adjust his team's approach to counter the Panthers' physical forecheck that dominated the neutral zone on Tuesday night.
Key stats
- 1Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in the Eastern Conference with 102 points from 82 games
- 2The Lightning have scored 294 goals (3rd highest in East) while allowing 219 (4th best defensive record)
- 3Tampa Bay's recent form shows inconsistency with a LWWLL record in their last five games
- 4Florida sits just below Tampa in 5th place with 98 points and a positive recent trend (LLWWW)
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
33%
Florida Panthers
67%
Apr 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 6
Florida Panthers
Apr 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 1
Florida Panthers
Mar 4, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 24, 2024
Florida Panthers
0 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 22, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Florida Panthers
Oct 2, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 : 2
Florida Panthers
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