NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/27/2025

The Detroit Pistons find themselves in a virtual must-win situation down 2-1 in their series against the Knicks, and the betting market agrees they should bounce back at home. Multiple expert sources are backing Detroit to defend home court in this Sunday afternoon matchup, noting they've won nine straight as favorites against New York.

The Pistons narrowly missed evening the series in Game 3, falling 118-116 despite a furious fourth-quarter comeback that saw them cut a 14-point deficit to just one in the closing seconds. That resilience should carry over into Game 4, where Detroit's balanced scoring attack (with four players scoring 16+ points in Game 3) gives them multiple offensive options.

History strongly favors the home team in this matchup, with the Knicks having lost 10 of their last 11 playoff road games following a win. New York has also struggled at Little Caesars Arena, with Detroit winning 9 of their last 10 meetings at home against the Knicks.

The Knicks could be shorthanded with Mitchell Robinson questionable due to illness, which would significantly impact their interior defense against Detroit's Jalen Duren. On the Detroit side, they need more from Tobias Harris, who averages nearly 3 points more in wins than losses this season.

With their season essentially on the line, expect Detroit to play with desperation and for the home crowd to provide a significant boost. The small spread indicates bookmakers see this as a coin-flip game, but the combination of home court and the must-win nature of this contest for Detroit makes laying the 2.5 points a solid value.

The Timberwolves secured a crucial 116-104 home win in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead, and multiple betting experts see them continuing their home dominance against the Lakers. Minnesota has historically owned this matchup at Target Center, winning an incredible 13 straight games when favored at home against Los Angeles.

Anthony Edwards continues to establish himself as a playoff force, contributing 29 points along with 8 rebounds and 8 assists in Game 3. Even more encouraging was Jaden McDaniels' breakout performance with 30 points on 13-of-22 shooting. When Minnesota gets this kind of production beyond their stars, they're extremely difficult to beat.

The Lakers showed fight in Game 3, led by LeBron James' 38 points, but their depth was a major issue. Outside of James, Austin Reaves (20 points) and Luka Doncic (17 points), no Laker scored more than 8 points. With Doncic still potentially affected by his recent stomach illness, the Lakers' offense could struggle again.

Minnesota's defense has proven capable of containing the Lakers' supporting cast, forcing James to shoulder an enormous burden. At 40 years old, even James has limits to how much he can carry this team, especially against a Timberwolves squad that ranks among the league's best defensive units.

The Wolves have the momentum, home-court advantage, and a statistical edge that gives them a 60.7% win probability according to advanced models. While the moneyline price requires laying some juice, the straight-up win is the cleaner play than messing with the spread in what projects to be a competitive Game 4.

The Magic come into Game 4 with renewed confidence after securing a gutsy 95-90 home win in Game 3 to cut Boston's series lead to 2-1. Multiple betting experts are backing Orlando to keep this one close, with the Magic showing they have the defensive chops to contain Boston's normally explosive offense.

The Celtics are dealing with key injury concerns that severely impact their depth and offensive potential. Jrue Holiday is already ruled out with a hamstring injury, while Jaylen Brown is questionable with a knee issue. When healthy, Boston is dominant, but these injuries make laying 6.5 points on the road a risky proposition.

Orlando has established a clear home-court advantage, winning their last four games at the Kia Center against the Celtics. The Magic are also an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six games when catching 5+ points, showing they can keep games close even as underdogs.

The matchup data supports Orlando's chances to cover. Paolo Banchero has been a dominant force in this series, averaging 32.3 points per game, while Franz Wagner has contributed 26.7 points per contest. Boston struggled containing Wagner's dribble penetration in Game 3, which should continue to be a factor.

With the series now competitive, expect the Magic to play with maximum intensity in a must-win situation. The Celtics remain the better team overall, but the combination of injuries, Orlando's home-court advantage, and their physical defensive approach make the Magic plus the points an attractive wager in this pivotal Game 4.

The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks have played three high-scoring affairs so far in their playoff series, with point totals of 215, 238, and 227. With the teams now familiar with each other's defensive schemes, Game 4 sets up perfectly for another shootout that should clear the 226-point total.

These teams have a clear history of offensive fireworks when they meet. Looking back at their regular season matchups, the point totals were astronomical: 246, 242, 229, and 245. Both squads rank in the top half of the NBA in pace (possessions per game), creating more scoring opportunities throughout the contest.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been unstoppable, scoring at least 34 points in all three playoff games so far. Meanwhile, Damian Lillard should improve from his shooting struggles (6-for-25 from the floor, 3-for-16 from three) after getting more game action following his extended absence due to blood clotting issues.

The Pacers' offensive approach remains consistent regardless of venue, averaging 113.7 points in the series behind Pascal Siakam's excellent play (25.7 points per game). Their shooting efficiency (47.9% from the field and 37.8% from three) suggests they'll continue putting up points against Milwaukee's defense.

With Milwaukee playing for their playoff lives to avoid a 3-1 deficit, expect maximum effort and aggressive offensive game plans from both sides. Neither team excels defensively, and the winner has scored at least 117 points in all three games so far. All indicators point to another high-scoring affair that should clear the total comfortably.