The Cleveland Cavaliers look to complete a clean sweep of the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Monday night at Kaseya Center, holding a commanding 3-0 series lead after Saturday's dominant 124-87 blowout victory.

Cleveland has overwhelmed Miami in every facet of the series, averaging 122 points per game while the injury-depleted Heat struggle to mount any sustainable offense beyond brief early-game surges.

With no NBA team ever overcoming a 3-0 playoff deficit in 158 previous attempts, Miami faces nearly impossible odds to extend their season as Cleveland aims to secure their spot in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?

For tonight's Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 82.67% chance of defeating the Heat.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 82.67% win probability

  • League-leading 64 wins (Most wins in the Eastern Conference)
  • Explosive offense (9999 points scored, highest in the NBA)
  • Strong point differential (+782, indicating dominance in both close and blowout games)

Miami Heat: 17.33% win probability

  • Recent struggles (1-4 in last five games with LWLWL form)
  • Middle-of-the-pack offense (9069 points scored, 10th in Eastern Conference)
  • Below .500 record (37-45, sitting at 10th in the East)

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers odds

Here are the latest odds as the Miami Heat host the Cleveland Cavaliers in NBA action on Monday, April 28.

Miami HeatCleveland Cavaliers
Moneyline+310 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)-375 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview

It's win-or-go-home for the Miami Heat as they face a daunting 3-0 series deficit against a red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers squad that's shown no mercy thus far in the first-round matchup.

The Cavaliers have steamrolled Miami with an offensive juggernaut averaging 122 points through three games, including Saturday's 124-87 blowout that marked the worst playoff loss in Heat franchise history.

Cleveland's balanced attack, featuring six players reaching double figures in Game 3, has overwhelmed a Heat defense that simply hasn't found answers, particularly after Jarrett Allen's commanding 22-point, 10-rebound performance.

Miami's early leads in Games 2 and 3 evaporated quickly against Cleveland's precision shooting (53.5% from the field in Game 3) and dominance on the glass (46-29 rebounding advantage).

The Heat will need more than Bam Adebayo's 22-point effort from Saturday, especially with Tyler Herro struggling to maintain consistent production and Terry Rozier sidelined with an ankle injury.

History looms large at Kaseya Center with no NBA team ever climbing out of a 3-0 playoff hole, but Miami will desperately try to avoid the sweep against a Cavaliers team eyeing its first playoff series victory since LeBron James departed in 2018.

Key stats

  • 1
    Cleveland sits 1st in the Eastern Conference with 64 wins and 18 losses, showing dominant form throughout the season
  • 2
    Miami ranks 10th in the East with a 37-45 record, struggling to maintain consistency
  • 3
    The Cavaliers boast a positive point differential, scoring 9999 points while allowing 9217 (+782)
  • 4
    Recent form heavily favors Cleveland (LWLWL) over Miami's inconsistent showing (LWLWL)

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers form

Miami Heat
Miami Heat
Latest matches
L
L
L
W
W
Victories
2/5 (40%)
Defeats
3/5 (60%)
Apr 26, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers124:87Miami Heat
Apr 23, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers121:112Miami Heat
Apr 20, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers121:100Miami Heat
Apr 18, 2025
Atlanta Hawks114:123Miami Heat
Apr 16, 2025
Chicago Bulls90:109Miami Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Latest matches
W
W
W
L
W
Victories
4/5 (80%)
Defeats
1/5 (20%)
Apr 26, 2025
Miami Heat87:124Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 23, 2025
Miami Heat112:121Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 20, 2025
Miami Heat100:121Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 13, 2025
Indiana Pacers126:118Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 11, 2025
New York Knicks102:108Cleveland Cavaliers

Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers head to head

Miami Heat

20%

Cleveland Cavaliers

80%

Apr 28, 2025

Miami Heat

0 : 0

Cleveland Cavaliers

Apr 26, 2025

Miami Heat

87 : 124

Cleveland Cavaliers

Apr 23, 2025

Cleveland Cavaliers

121 : 112

Miami Heat

Apr 20, 2025

Cleveland Cavaliers

121 : 100

Miami Heat

Mar 6, 2025

Cleveland Cavaliers

112 : 107

Miami Heat

Jan 30, 2025

Miami Heat

106 : 126

Cleveland Cavaliers

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