The Cleveland Cavaliers look to complete a clean sweep of the Miami Heat in Game 4 on Monday night at Kaseya Center, holding a commanding 3-0 series lead after Saturday's dominant 124-87 blowout victory.
Cleveland has overwhelmed Miami in every facet of the series, averaging 122 points per game while the injury-depleted Heat struggle to mount any sustainable offense beyond brief early-game surges.
With no NBA team ever overcoming a 3-0 playoff deficit in 158 previous attempts, Miami faces nearly impossible odds to extend their season as Cleveland aims to secure their spot in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 82.67% chance of defeating the Heat.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 82.67% win probability
- League-leading 64 wins (Most wins in the Eastern Conference)
- Explosive offense (9999 points scored, highest in the NBA)
- Strong point differential (+782, indicating dominance in both close and blowout games)
Miami Heat: 17.33% win probability
- Recent struggles (1-4 in last five games with LWLWL form)
- Middle-of-the-pack offense (9069 points scored, 10th in Eastern Conference)
- Below .500 record (37-45, sitting at 10th in the East)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers odds
Here are the latest odds as the Miami Heat host the Cleveland Cavaliers in NBA action on Monday, April 28.
Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | |
---|---|---|
Moneyline | +310 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) | -375 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) |
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Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview
It's win-or-go-home for the Miami Heat as they face a daunting 3-0 series deficit against a red-hot Cleveland Cavaliers squad that's shown no mercy thus far in the first-round matchup.
The Cavaliers have steamrolled Miami with an offensive juggernaut averaging 122 points through three games, including Saturday's 124-87 blowout that marked the worst playoff loss in Heat franchise history.
Cleveland's balanced attack, featuring six players reaching double figures in Game 3, has overwhelmed a Heat defense that simply hasn't found answers, particularly after Jarrett Allen's commanding 22-point, 10-rebound performance.
Miami's early leads in Games 2 and 3 evaporated quickly against Cleveland's precision shooting (53.5% from the field in Game 3) and dominance on the glass (46-29 rebounding advantage).
The Heat will need more than Bam Adebayo's 22-point effort from Saturday, especially with Tyler Herro struggling to maintain consistent production and Terry Rozier sidelined with an ankle injury.
History looms large at Kaseya Center with no NBA team ever climbing out of a 3-0 playoff hole, but Miami will desperately try to avoid the sweep against a Cavaliers team eyeing its first playoff series victory since LeBron James departed in 2018.
Key stats
- 1Cleveland sits 1st in the Eastern Conference with 64 wins and 18 losses, showing dominant form throughout the season
- 2Miami ranks 10th in the East with a 37-45 record, struggling to maintain consistency
- 3The Cavaliers boast a positive point differential, scoring 9999 points while allowing 9217 (+782)
- 4Recent form heavily favors Cleveland (LWLWL) over Miami's inconsistent showing (LWLWL)
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers form


Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers head to head
Miami Heat
20%
Cleveland Cavaliers
80%
Apr 28, 2025
Miami Heat
0 : 0
Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 26, 2025
Miami Heat
87 : 124
Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 23, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
121 : 112
Miami Heat
Apr 20, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
121 : 100
Miami Heat
Mar 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
112 : 107
Miami Heat
Jan 30, 2025
Miami Heat
106 : 126
Cleveland Cavaliers
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