NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/28/2025

The Cavaliers have absolutely dominated this series, currently up 3-0 and coming off a crushing 37-point victory in Game 3 where they led by as many as 40.

Cleveland's balanced attack has overwhelmed Miami, with Jarrett Allen, De'Andre Hunter, Evan Mobley, and Max Strus all contributing significant scoring in their last outing.

The Heat have struggled mightily on both ends, shooting just 42% in Game 3 while key players like Andrew Wiggins (3-of-10) and Nikola Jovic (1-of-7) failed to make an impact.

Cleveland is 10-0 in their last 10 night games against Southeast Division opponents, showing their dominance in this matchup context.

While sweep games can sometimes produce unpredictable results, the talent gap appears too wide to overcome, especially with the Heat missing Terry Rozier and Kevin Love.

The Rockets enter Game 4 down 2-1 but have shown they can compete, even leading for most of Game 3 before falling short.

Golden State's Jimmy Butler is questionable with a gluteal contusion after missing Game 3, putting additional pressure on Curry to carry the offensive load.

Houston has the youth and depth advantage, which becomes more significant as the series extends and minutes accumulate for the Warriors' veterans.

The Rockets are 3-1 ATS in their last four Western Conference First Round games as underdogs, showing value in this spot.

With Jalen Green due for a bounce-back performance and the Warriors potentially missing Butler again, Houston has legitimate upset potential beyond just covering.

The total of 200.5 points represents value in a series that's settling into its offensive rhythm after early defensive struggles.

Dimers' predictive model gives this over a 53.9% probability with a 2.7% edge, making it their top public NBA bet of the day.

Stephen Curry has found his scoring touch, averaging 29 points in the series while creating opportunities for teammates.

Houston's offense should improve after shooting just 41.3% from the field through the first three games, a figure likely to regress toward their season average.

The pace of play typically increases in must-win playoff situations, and the Rockets can't afford to fall behind 3-1 in the series.

Golden State holds the crucial home-court advantage at Chase Center where they've won 12 of their last 16 games, creating a difficult environment for visiting teams.

The Warriors' playoff experience becomes increasingly valuable as the series progresses, with Stephen Curry continuing to deliver elite production (29 points, 7 assists per game in the series).

Houston has lost five of their last six games overall and struggles in this playoff matchup historically, having lost 11 of their last 12 Western Conference First Round road games against Pacific Division teams.

Even with Jimmy Butler questionable, the Warriors have demonstrated they can adjust, utilizing their depth with contributors like Pat Spencer stepping up.

Golden State's defense has been solid, holding the Rockets to just 41.3% shooting from the field and should continue to contain Houston's young scorers on their home floor.