NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/29/2025

The Pacers have dominated this series, leading 3-1 after crushing the Bucks 129-103 in Game 4, and now return home with a chance to close it out.

The devastating loss of Damian Lillard to an Achilles tear has crippled Milwaukee's offense, leaving Giannis Antetokounmpo without adequate support - he scored 28 points in Game 4 but no other Buck aside from Kevin Porter Jr. reached 15 points.

Indiana's offense has been clicking at an elite level, leading all playoff teams in midrange efficiency (53.1%) and showcasing their balanced attack with eight players scoring at least 12 points in Game 4.

The Pacers are a remarkable 15-2 straight up in their last 17 home games and 8-1 in their last 9 against the Bucks, covering in 3 of 4 games this series.

With Milwaukee mentally deflated after Lillard's injury and Indiana playing cohesive team basketball, the Pacers should handle this line at home where they've covered in each of their last six playoff games.

The Pistons-Knicks series has been incredibly tight with the last two games decided by a combined three points, suggesting this line is inflated despite Detroit being down 3-1.

Detroit will be playing with desperation after a controversial Game 4 finish where many felt they should have gotten a foul call on the game's final shot, potentially providing extra motivation for this young team.

Cade Cunningham has been outstanding, averaging 25.9 points and 8.8 rebounds, and continues to keep the Pistons competitive despite facing elite perimeter defense from OG Anunoby.

The Pistons have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents following a loss, showing resilience in bounce-back situations.

While the Knicks should be favored at home with Brunson's stellar play, the narrow margins in this series suggest another close game is likely, making the 5.5 points valuable in what has been the most entertaining first-round matchup.

The Magic have been remarkably competitive against the top-seeded Celtics, staying within single digits in three of four games despite being heavy underdogs.

In Game 4, Orlando was down just 4 heading into the final quarter before eventually falling by 9 points, showing they can hang tough with Boston's firepower even on the road.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have been consistent forces, combining for 58 points per game in this series, and the Magic have done an excellent job limiting Boston's 3-point shooting, holding the Celtics under 10 made threes in all four games.

Multiple expert analyses point to this spread being too generous, with statistical models showing a 3.2% edge on taking the Magic to cover this double-digit spread.

Orlando's defensive intensity and desperation as they face elimination should keep this game competitive enough to stay within the number, especially if they can continue to force Boston into inefficient perimeter shooting.

The Clippers-Nuggets series has been incredibly tight with three of four games decided by a single possession, but Los Angeles has shown the deeper roster and more consistent play throughout.

James Harden and Kawhi Leonard have been stellar, with Denver showing no real ability to slow down either player - a problem compounded by the Nuggets' lack of depth after Russell Westbrook's injury.

Denver's supporting cast has struggled, particularly Jamal Murray who hasn't found his offensive rhythm throughout the series, while Michael Porter Jr. is dealing with a concerning shoulder injury.

The Clippers boast one of the league's best defenses and have forced Nikola Jokic into several uncharacteristic turnovers, particularly in Games 2 and 3.

With the series tied 2-2, this pivotal Game 5 sets up perfectly for a savvy, veteran Clippers team that's shooting 39% from beyond the arc and plays their best basketball in high-pressure situations.