NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 04/29/2025

The Maple Leafs have been nearly unstoppable at home, winning their last 9 straight in Toronto dating back to the regular season, including the first two games of this series where they outscored Ottawa 9-4.

Now up 3-1 in the series, Toronto returns home with a chance to close out their rivals and advance to the second round. The Leafs' top performers are all producing, with Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, and Marner each tallying 5+ points through four playoff games.

Toronto's power play has been lethal in this series, converting on 4 of 7 opportunities in the first two home games. Despite dropping Game 4, the Maple Leafs have played with notable confidence and balance throughout this series.

The Senators managed to avoid elimination last game, but Toronto's home-ice advantage and offensive firepower make them the smarter play here. Even with Toronto's historical playoff elimination game struggles (1-12 in their last 13), this team appears more balanced and defensively sound than previous editions.

Backing the Maple Leafs to win in regulation offers better value than the standard moneyline, and with Toronto's dominance at home this season, they should be able to finish this series without needing overtime.

Analytics models are showing significant value on the Devils puck line, with multiple expert sources indicating an edge of 2.5% on this wager and a 57% probability of covering.

The Devils find themselves as heavy underdogs against the Hurricanes, but the numbers suggest New Jersey has a better chance to keep this game close than the odds indicate. At +225 on the moneyline, sportsbooks are significantly undervaluing New Jersey's chances.

While Carolina has won four of their last five games and New Jersey has lost four of their last five, the Devils' strong special teams play (converting over 28% of their power play opportunities) gives them a weapon to keep this competitive.

Carolina's defensive prowess and penalty killing ability will make scoring difficult for the Devils, but New Jersey's own penalty kill ranks second in the league, which should help neutralize one of Carolina's strengths.

With the puck line at +1.5 goals, we only need the Devils to lose by one or win outright to cash this bet. Given the value identified by multiple models and the Devils' special teams advantage, this represents one of the strongest plays on today's slate.

This series has been an offensive showcase with the Wild scoring 15 goals through the first four games, while the Golden Knights are coming off a four-goal performance in their last outing.

Both teams have demonstrated they can consistently generate quality scoring chances. The Wild have been carried by offensive stars Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy, who have been effective at creating space and finding shots in the offensive zone.

Vegas counters with their own offensive weapons in Tomas Hertl, Nicolas Roy, and Ivan Barbashev who have been crashing the net and creating havoc in front. Adding to the Golden Knights' attack, defensemen Noah Hanifin and Alex Pietrangelo have been active from the point.

The recent head-to-head trends favor high-scoring affairs, with the offensive talent on both sides finding ways to overcome the goaltending. Both teams have shown they can sustain pressure in the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick puck movement.

The total of 6 goals looks attainable given the offensive firepower on display throughout this series. With both teams comfortable playing an up-tempo style and generating odd-man rushes, we expect this game to go over the total.

Recent trends strongly favor the over in this matchup, with the Oilers playing over the total in their last four games while the Kings have gone over in five of their last six games. Most tellingly, these teams have played over the total in their last four head-to-head meetings.

Both teams have been offensive powerhouses lately, each averaging 4.33 goals per game in their last three contests. Their power plays have been equally impressive, with both teams converting an incredible 50% of their chances recently.

The Kings have been particularly potent at home, scoring 13 goals in their last three games at Crypto.com Arena. Edmonton's road defense has been suspect, allowing 12 goals in their last three away games.

Similarly, Los Angeles has shown defensive vulnerabilities at home, surrendering 7 goals in their last two home games. This creates a perfect storm for an over, with both teams capable of scoring while showing cracks in their defensive structures.

With Edmonton averaging 3.16 goals per game on the season and Los Angeles at 3.04, both teams have the firepower to push this game over the total. The combination of strong offenses and struggling defenses makes this one of the strongest over plays on today's slate.