The Florida Panthers look to close out their Eastern Conference first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Wednesday night, carrying a commanding 3-1 lead after Monday's dramatic come-from-behind victory.
With Tampa Bay potentially missing key forward Brandon Hagel and facing elimination on home ice, the Lightning will need to overcome both recent history—having lost seven of their last nine meetings with Florida at Amalie Arena—and a Panthers team that's hitting its stride at the perfect time.
Sergei Bobrovsky's steady goaltending has given Florida an edge throughout the series, while the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled to maintain his typically dominant playoff form.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers matchup, our predictive model gives the Panthers a 52.5% chance of defeating the Lightning.
Pre-game probabilities
Florida Panthers
Moneyline
Win %
52.5%
47.5%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Florida Panthers: 52.5% win probability
- Strong defensive record (223 goals against, 5th best in Eastern Conference)
- Excellent recent form (LLWWW, winning 3 of their last 5 games)
- Consistent point production (98 points in 82 games, indicating reliable performance throughout the season)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 47.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (LWWLL, losing 3 of their last 5 games)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (219 goals against, slightly worse than Florida)
- Potential overreliance on offense (294 goals for, suggesting they may struggle in tight defensive battles)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers preview
The Florida Panthers are on the brink of advancing after their dramatic comeback in Game 4, where they scored two goals within 11 seconds late in the third period to steal a 4-2 victory and take a commanding 3-1 series lead against their state rivals.
Tampa Bay finds itself in a do-or-die situation on home ice, potentially missing key forward Brandon Hagel who left Game 4 after taking a controversial high hit to the chin area.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been the steadier of the two netminders, posting a .900 save percentage in Game 4 compared to Andrei Vasilevskiy's .864, while Florida's defensive adjustments have effectively neutralized Tampa's attack.
The Panthers have dominated this matchup recently, winning seven of their last nine games in Tampa Bay's building and thirteen of eighteen overall in the rivalry.
The series has favored high-scoring affairs with three of the four games going over the total, and Tampa's desperation could create odd-man rush opportunities for a Florida team that can play more freely knowing elimination isn't on the line.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
33%
Florida Panthers
67%
Apr 28, 2025
Florida Panthers
4 : 2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 26, 2025
Florida Panthers
1 : 5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 24, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
0 : 2
Florida Panthers
Apr 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 6
Florida Panthers
Apr 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 1
Florida Panthers
Mar 4, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
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