NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 04/30/2025

The Houston Rockets face elimination at home against the Warriors, but all signs point to them extending this series. After a heartbreaking 109-106 loss in Game 4 where they shot just 19-for-31 from the free throw line, the Rockets return to Toyota Center where they posted an impressive 29-12 record during the regular season.

Houston has lost only 3 of their last 13 home games, showing they're a different team with their crowd behind them. What's critical here is the physical toll on Jimmy Butler, who logged 40 minutes in Game 4 just days after a back injury and may not have sufficient recovery time for this quick turnaround.

Alperen Sengun dominated with 31 points in Game 4, and coach Ime Udoka's adjustment to pair him with Steven Adams created matchup problems Golden State struggled to solve. The Warriors have relied heavily on Butler and Brandin Podziemski as Stephen Curry has been effectively contained by Houston's defense.

This is a classic do-or-die scenario where Houston's youth and energy should provide an edge at home. The Rockets understand the stakes couldn't be higher, and despite Golden State's 3-1 lead, the games have been competitive throughout the series.

The pressure shifts to the Warriors in Game 5, as closing out playoff series on the road is notoriously difficult. With Jimmy Butler potentially limited and Houston's size advantage inside, backing the Rockets on their home floor offers solid value for a team that's played well at Toyota Center all season.

While Game 4 saw the highest scoring output of the series with 215 total points, the defensive intensity has ramped up significantly with both teams fighting for their playoff lives. The stakes of Game 5 should push this contest toward a slower, more deliberate pace.

The Rockets' strategy of deploying both Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams simultaneously clogs the paint and creates a more methodical game flow. This twin-towers approach helped Houston control the tempo in Game 4 despite the higher final score.

Golden State's offense has become increasingly dependent on Butler and Podziemski as the Rockets have effectively schemed to limit Stephen Curry's looks. With Curry struggling to get clean shots, the Warriors' offense becomes less efficient and more isolation-heavy.

The pressure of an elimination game typically leads to tighter play and lower scoring as teams become more risk-averse. Free throw shooting becomes more important, and the Rockets' struggles at the line (19-for-31 in Game 4) could again limit their offensive output.

With Jalen Green's confidence clearly shaken (he's scored in single digits three times this series and attempted just 8 shots in Game 4), Houston is missing a key offensive weapon. The combination of playoff pressure, defensive adjustments, and Green's scoring slump points toward another under hitting in this crucial Game 5.

The Timberwolves head into Los Angeles with a commanding 3-1 series lead and look primed to close this out despite being underdogs. Minnesota has been the better team throughout the series, with their size, defensive prowess, and depth giving the Lakers consistent problems over four games.

Anthony Edwards has been sensational, averaging 29.8 points and 7.8 rebounds in the series, giving the Timberwolves the best player on the floor despite the Lakers' star power. Minnesota's defense has stifled the Lakers, holding them under 100 points in three of the four games so far.

The trends strongly favor Minnesota in this spot. They've won six of the last nine games against the Lakers and covered the spread in seven of their last eight Western Conference First Round games against Pacific Division opponents. The Wolves have also won 25 road games this season, showing their capability to perform away from home.

Los Angeles appears to be running on fumes, having lost four of their last five games overall. The Lakers' offense has struggled mightily, and although Luka Doncic and LeBron James are putting up numbers, the supporting cast hasn't delivered consistently.

Even if the Lakers manage to extend this series at home, the line is too generous given how these teams have matched up. Minnesota's depth advantage, defensive matchups, and the emergence of Edwards as a proven late-game closer makes the Timberwolves the value play as 5.5-point underdogs.