Using figures from DraftShark's injury risk algorithm, analysts at Sporting Post isolated the NFL players who are most at-risk of injury for the 2024 season and calculated the average risk of injury per NFL team.
As the 2024 NFL season approaches, injury concerns are once again top of mind for teams and fans alike.
Here Sporting Post analyzes which players and teams are most likely to suffer injury setbacks during the 2024 NFL season.
With the physical toll of the sport growing each year, these players and teams face the toughest battle to stay on the field and contribute to their teams' success.
Which Players Are Most At Risk of Injury in the 2024 NFL Season?
The top three players at risk of injury for the 2024 NFL season are Elijah Mitchell, Isiah Pacheco, and Tee Higgins, each with a high likelihood of missing at least one game due to injury.
1. Elijah Mitchell (90.9% chance of missing at least one game)
Mitchell, the San Francisco 49ers running back, tops the list with a 90.9% injury risk. His ranking stems from his extensive history of injuries. Since joining the NFL, Mitchell has battled knee and hamstring issues, limiting his availability. His physical, aggressive running style and the 49ers' use of him in high-impact situations compound his injury risk.
2. Isiah Pacheco (90.4%)
Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco follows closely with a 90.4% risk. Although Pacheco showed durability as a rookie, his physical, punishing running style makes him more prone to wear and tear. His injury risk is impacted by his workload and the rigors of the Chiefs' offense, where he’s expected to take a lot of contact in the backfield.
3. Tee Higgins (89.2%)
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins ranks third with an 89.2% injury risk. While Higgins has been productive, he has suffered multiple injuries throughout his career, including shoulder and concussion issues. His large frame and physical style of play contribute to his high risk score.
Explore the Data on NFL Injury Risk per Player for the 2024 Season
Dataset on 385 NFL players, ranked by the risk (%) of them missing at least one game through injury.
Which Teams Are Most At Risk of Injury in the 2024 NFL Season?
The top three NFL teams at-risk of injury are the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings, and Los Angeles Rams. They have the highest collective injury risk based on their player data.
1. Chicago Bears (53.31%)
The Bears top the rankings with an overall injury risk of 53.31%. Key players such as Khalil Herbert (81.8%) and Tremaine Edmunds (80%) contribute significantly to this high score. The team’s heavy reliance on physical play from its running backs and defensive stars drives the injury risk up, especially with young talents like Darnell Mooney (85%) also on the list.
2. Minnesota Vikings (53.28%)
Close behind are the Vikings, with a 53.28% team injury risk. Veteran players like Aaron Jones (87.6%) and Stephon Gilmore (82.9%) have a history of missing games, while emerging stars such as Jordan Addison (69.8%) also factor into the injury outlook. The Vikings’ roster features a mix of experienced veterans and young talent, making it crucial for them to manage player workloads effectively.
3. Los Angeles Rams (53.27%)
The Rams round out the top three, with a 53.27% injury risk. Running back Kyren Williams (88.7%) and quarterback Matthew Stafford (80.3%) are major contributors to the team's elevated injury potential. Stafford’s age and injury history, combined with the Rams' reliance on physical players like Kyren, make them particularly susceptible to missing key personnel throughout the season.
Explore the Data on NFL Injury Risk per Team for the 2024 Season
Calculated as an average risk score (%) per team of their players missing at least one game through injury.
Notes on the Data:
Taking figures from DraftShark's Injury Risk dataset, analysts at Sporting Post ranked the players that are most at-risk of missing at least one game through injury during the 2024 season. They then ranked which NFL teams are most at-risk, based on an average score for all of the players in their team with available data.
DraftShark's NFL Injury Risk Predictor metrics are based upon an extensive injury database that was created through manual research of public reports—tracking details like injury dates, severity, time missed, and recurrence. The database includes more than 3,165 injuries for hundreds of players, categorized by injury type, body part, and condition, with data refined through consultations with experts to improve accuracy in forecasting future injury risks.
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