Tomorrow is Monday, June 10th, which means that the wait for Euro 2024 is close to being over, but there’s still time to explore a few different betting angles.
Major tournaments are great for player bets and team bets, such as betting on the top scorer or the competition winner, but what about more generic tournament bets?
One such bet involves betting on the number of goals scored at the tournament overall, which is a relatively niche and not something that every bookmaker offers, but it’s a fun market to explore all the same.
How many goals will be scored?
Asking how many goals will be scored at a major tournament is quite a daft question when you think about it.
Let’s be honest, nobody knows, but as is the case with all gambling, we should be thinking much less about predicting and way more about getting a decent price - odds that may just be a little on the generous side.
There are several ways to determine whether odds are potentially generous, and it’s certainly not an exact science. At least, there’s no one definitive way.
For me, with a bet like this, it’s just about forming an opinion of how many goals are likely to be scored based on a variety of factors and then seeing whether or not the odds available reflect a similar likelihood.
As far as I’m concerned, there’s enough evidence to suggest that things could be quite high-scoring at this tournament.
However, what does high-scoring mean? Well, it’s all relative, right? In relation to Euro 2016, I think this could go down as a high-scoring tournament, but in relation to Euro 2020, maybe not.
You’ll see what I mean by this when we go over the last two European Championships from a total goals point of view below.
From a betting angle here, I’m quite taken by ‘Under 130 Goals’ at odds of 2/1 with bet365, which means that the tournament, once the whistle blows for full time in the final, will need to contain no more than 129 goals in total for a win to be sealed.
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How many goals have been scored at previous Euros?
If we’re to get an idea of what sort of number we’re aiming at here, then it’s a good idea to look at how many goals have been scored at previous European Championships.
Of course, many previous totals may seem relatively low compared to the last two renewals of this famous competition, but that’s because from 2016, the number of teams increased from 16 to 24, meaning more games, which naturally results in more goals.
Therefore, for comparison purposes, we should mainly be looking at the last two renewals of the Euros, which are shown below in the table, containing the overall number of goals scored, as well as the number of goals scored per game (average), plus the total number of goals scored from (non-shootout) penalties.
Tournament | Total goals scored | Average goals scored per game | Total penalty goals (excluding shootouts) |
|---|---|---|---|
Euro 2020 | 142 | 2.78 | 8 |
Euro 2016 | 108 | 2.12 | 8 |
As the table above shows, there was a significant increase between the number of goals scored at Euro 2016 and Euro 2020, an increase of 34, which is an extra 0.66 goals per game.
This could just be nothing more than pure variance. In other words, more goals were scored at Euro 2020 than Euro 2016 for no reason whatsoever.
Alternatively, one possible reason could be that Euro 2020 was played in a variety of countries, meaning that several teams played several games on home soil, which can very easily aid the scoring of goals.
After all, look at any given domestic season, in any country, and most teams tend to score more goals at home than they do away.
Don’t be surprised if less goals go in this time
It would be quite easy to assume that the goals will fly all over the place after Euro 2020, but as mentioned above, a large part of why that tournament was much more high-scoring than the one that came before it - the first 24-team edition of the Euros - was likely because so many teams enjoyed a home advantage at times.
This time around, we’ve gone back to the traditional single host-country approach, meaning that every team besides Germany is playing on foreign soil, which is key.
I think it would be slightly foolish to assume that things will be just as high-scoring as they were last time around. I, for one, think we’ll see a decrease in total goals here.
If I had to guess, which I know is a dangerous game, then I’d say we can expect somewhere in between Euro 2016 and Euro 2020 as far as total goal count goes.
After all, many of the teams due to be involved at Euro 2024 qualified for the tournament based largely on their ability to keep things relatively tight at the back. In qualifying, the likes of England, Ukraine, Turkey, Croatia, Albania, Czech Republic, Belgium, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Portugal, France, Netherlands, Spain and Slovakia all conceded an average of 1.00 goal per game or less.
Nine of the 15 teams mentioned above, conceded 0.75 goals per game or less. Naturally, the tournament itself is tougher, as every team will typically face a better quality of opponent, but such a stat is still worth taking into consideration.
It’s also important not to be ignorant to the fact that many teams will adopt a cautious approach in Germany, especially early on.
Of course, some will be more cautious than others, but this is a knockout tournament, one where teams and even from the word go in the groups, most will have their eyes on the big picture, so don’t be surprised if many of the early games are cagey and relatively low-scoring.
At the end of the day, most teams, especially the best ones, though undoubtedly keen to lay down a marker and get off to a good start, won’t want to peak too soon.
There’s no need for the big boys to go all guns blazing early doors as the games get more important as the tournament goes on, so keeping a little back is key, and we’ve seen plenty of successful teams do that in the past, so again don’t be surprised if some don’t fully extend themselves early doors.
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Am I suggesting that everyone is going to be playing for 0-0’s? Absolutely not, and just like every tournament does, Euro 2024 will have its share of 2-1’s, 2-2’s 3-2’s and so on, but there will certainly be a lot of teams simply doing enough to get over the line early on, while many others will absolutely adopt a defend-first approach, so expect plenty of low-scoring games.
While I’ve said above that I think the tournament could go down as relatively high-scoring, I don’t think we’ll see the Euro 2020 total exceed this time around.
My version of relatively high-scoring would see something like an average of 2.50 goals per game, which would result in a total of 127.5 goals.
Obviously, a total of 127.5 goals is not possible, so let’s call in 128. I’d take that all day long.
I could be miles off and we could see more goals than ever before scored in Germany, and if that’s the case, so be it. Live by the sword, die by the sword, right?
Ultimately, if like me, you’re of the opinion that something in between the previous two Euro totals is likely, then odds of 2/1 on ‘Under 130 Goals’ are definitely worth taking.
Recap - How many goals will be scored at Euro 2024?
To confirm, as far as total-tournament goals go, the recommended bet is as follows:
Under 130 Goals @ 2/1 with bet365
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