Italy vs Albania Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

The first three-game day at the 2024 renewal of the European Championships finishes off with Italy taking on Albania. In what is a tough-looking opening fixture, can the Red & Blacks cause an upset? Or will the Italians get the job done without a fuss? Read on for our Italy vs Albania predictions.

Italy vs Albania prediction

For the Italy vs Albania match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis. The Italians may be huge favourites, but they’ve not been massive scorers of late, while the Albanians have improved over the last year or so, turning into quite a resolute team, one that can frustrate, while they’ll enjoy playing on the break too.

Here are our Italy vs Albania predictions, with reasoning provided later in the article:

Both Teams to Score @ 11/8 with bet365

Italy vs Albania betting odds

Bet	Odds
Italy to win	2/5
Albania to win	15/2
Draw	7/2

Italy vs Albania head-to-head statistics

Only four times have these two nations clashed on the pitch, most recently back in 2022, when Italy won by three goals to one in Albania. First meeting in 2014, the Italians have won each of the previous four matches against Saturday’s opponents, conceding just one goal in the process.

Italy vs Albania preview

This match will be played on 15/06/2024 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund at 20:00 GMT.

Following their success at Euro 2020, the Italians rather let themselves down by failing to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar, but they’ve since got back on the horse and are once again back for a crack at the European Championships, this time under a new boss.

Under Luciano Spalletti, Gli Azzurri have once again become a hard team to beat, while they’ve got a habit of grinding out wins in typical Italian style too, as they’ve done in three of their last four.

However, they failed to top their qualifying group, losing both home and away to England, suggesting that they may not quite have the quality needed to beat the very best.

For Albania, inclusion in the European Championships was far from likely, nor was it expected, yet they took full advantage of being in one of the lesser qualifying groups, topping it with aplomb.

Since Brazilian manager Sylvinho took charge back at the start of 2023, the Albanians have become far more resolute, so much so that they got to Germany having lost just three games in 18 months.

On route to making this tournament, they showed quality in all areas to beat both the Czech Republic and Poland, so they’re no mugs.

Unfortunately, Sylvinho’s men have landed themselves in a tough group, but who knows, perhaps they’ll upset the big dogs and spring a surprise even bigger than the one that saw them enter Euro 2024 as qualifying group winners.

Italy vs Albania Betting tips

Just one bet stands out ahead of this Italy vs Albania game, so here goes:

Both Teams to Score

On paper, for my money, this Italy team looks quite underwhelming. I’m certainly not taken by them and I’m happy to stick my neck out and say that they certainly will not be retaining their title.

However, their two best performers, as I see it, both play in the final third, so they ought to be capable of causing some damage here.

After all, they have found a route to goal in three of their last four, while they scored more often than not during qualifying, failing to find the net in only one out of ten games.

Most football fans know the danger that Federico Chiesa brings, while they’ve got a very capable man up top in Gianluca Scamacca, who recently scored 19 goals in all competitions for Atalanta.

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Inter pair Federico Dimarco and Davide Frattesi, scoring and assisting 20 between them in Serie A last season, add to the threat, though only one of those two looks set for a starting berth, at least in the first game.

Since the pair met in late 2022, it’s probably fair to say that the Albanians have improved, and now after a year and a half of having Sylvinho at the helm, they’re likely a tougher side to beat, so we shouldn’t assume that this will be a stroll for the current holders.

What’s more, there’s a decent chance that they’ll be a threat on the break here. The Italians won’t be anywhere near as expansive as some teams at this tournament, but they’ll have little choice but to make the running in this one as the Red & Blacks won’t take too many risks.

That said, during qualifying they did most of their best work on the counter, scoring some decent goals against the likes of Poland and the Czech’s, so they could quite easily threaten here.

It’s also worth mentioning that competitively, this Italy team hasn’t regularly obtained clean sheets over the last year or so, conceding in qualifying home and away to England, both home and away against North Macedonia and at home to Ukraine.

All in all, I think there’s enough evidence to make early odds of 11/8 with bet365 look ever so slightly lenient, and with little else jumping off the page, that’s the way to play it.