Spain vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

Having exploded into life during the first round of group matches, laying down a marker and putting an important three points on the board, the Spanish will be looking for another big win, though beating the Italians, who also won their first game, won’t be easy.

Spain vs Italy prediction

For the Spain vs Italy match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-0 win for Italy based on our analysis.

Both teams impressed during the first round of matches, but both should meet stiffer tests here, while the pair have a recent history of not being split by much.

See below for our Spain vs Italy predictions, with write-ups later in the article:

Italy (0) Asian Handicap @ 6/4 with bet365

Spain vs Italy betting odds

Bet	Odds
Spain to win	6/5
Italy to win	11/4
Draw	12/5

Spain vs Italy head-to-head statistics

This will be the fourth time that the pair have met since June 2021, when they drew 1-1 (in normal time) at the delayed Euro 2020, before Spain won via a penalty shootout.

Since winning that shootout, the Spanish have twice beaten Italy by the narrowest of margins, winning 2-1 in both 2021 and 2023.

This will be the 26th renewal of this age-old fixture. Since their first meeting in 1920, the Spanish have eight wins, while the Italians have seven.

Spain vs Italy preview

This match will be played on 20/06/2024 at Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen). Kick off is at 20:00 GMT.

The word to describe the Spanish in that opening Group B fixture is clinical. La Roja made light work of taking their chances against Croatia, thanks to some sharp finishing from Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal.

For their end-product alone, the Spaniards were good value for that win, but we shouldn’t see a 3-0 score-line and think that they battered Croatia.

For all they were far more clinical than their opponents, which is all that matters in terms of results, they definitely didn’t dominate in all areas, while they were arguably lucky not to concede multiple goals, at least that’s what an xG-against number of 2.27 suggests.

Despite what a 2-1 score-line may suggest, I’d argue that the Italians were much more comfortable winners during the first round of games.

Sure, they went behind almost straight from the kick-off against Albania, but the Italians didn’t really need to get out of second gear to win that game.

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They quickly turned things around, scoring twice before half-time, and creating numerous other chances, such as when Davide Frattesi hit the post with an almost perfectly executed chip.

All round, it was a positive performance from the Italians, who now have reason to be confident ahead of this match against the Spanish.

Spain vs Italy Betting tips

Just the one bet for me ahead of Spain vs Italy and I’m siding with the Italians, with the insurance that a ‘(0) Asian Handicap’ bet provides.

Italy (0) Asian Handicap

The Spanish are quite strong in the early betting, though I think that could be a slight overreaction to that win against Croatia.

As touched on above, they probably didn’t win as well as the score-line suggests that they did, while they certainly conceded chances, which doesn’t bode too well for them ahead of a game against an Italian side that doesn’t give much away, one that can be dangerous on the break.

I thought there was plenty to like about the way this Italy team created a variety of chances against Albania, while they showed plenty of threat from set-piece too.

I also think that they’ll very much be suited by sitting back against a quite open-looking Spanish team, who will almost certainly have to work much harder to create chances and score goals here.

After all, this is an Italy team that has conceded just one goal in its last six matches, while Luciano Spalletti’s men have lost just one of their last 12, and it’s not as if they’ve faced only poor teams during that time.

Of course, it’s hard not to be impressed by some of the attacking talent that this Spanish side have, but both Williams and Lamal are ideally suited by having space to run into in the final third, and I’m really not sure they’ll get much of that here.

Look, am I saying that the Italians will show the Spanish what for and play them off the park here? Absolutely not. Am I saying that they’ll win the game? Nope.

What I am saying is that on all available evidence, there looks to be less between the teams than the early odds suggest, while the way in which the game is likely to be set-up in terms of the overall play may just favour Spalleti’s men that bit more.

All in all, betting on Italy to cause a minor upset and win, with the insurance of money back in the event of a draw, is the best bet as far as I’m concerned.