Croatia vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

It’s crunch time for both Croatia and Italy in Group B. Following their draw against the Albanians, it’s almost certain that the Croats need a win to progress, while the Italians cannot afford to lose if they want the best chance of going through.

We’re set up for an intriguing contest in Leipzig. Read on for our Croatia vs Italy predictions.

Croatia vs Italy prediction

For the Croatia vs Italy match prediction, we believe the final score will be 2-1 in favour of Croatia based on our analysis.

The Italians have a long, rather successful history of digging deep and grinding out results when needs be, but if they sit back and look to secure a point here, they may just regret it against a Croatia side that can cause problems, especially with forward Ante Budimir to aim at.

See below for our Croatia vs Italy predictions, with analysis provided later in the article:

Croatia to Win @ 11/5 with bet365
Ante Budimir to Score @ 11/4 with bet365

Croatia vs Italy betting odds

Bet	Odds
Croatia to win	11/5
Italy to win	11/5
Draw	27/20

Croatia vs Italy head-to-head statistics

It’s been a while since these two nations faced each other, with the last renewal of this fixture coming back in 2015, when the pair drew 1-1 in Zagreb.

Interestingly, each of the last three renewals of this fixture has ended 1-1. What’s more, the Italians have never beaten the Croatians, who’ve won three of the previous eight renewals.

Croatia vs Italy preview

This match will be played on 24/06/2024 at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

Given what we’ve seen from Croatia at recent major tournaments, it’s probably fair to say that they’ve let themselves down a little bit in Germany so far.

They could be forgiven for coming unstuck against an excellent and clinical Spain side, especially as they produced plenty of promising offensive moves of their own in that game, but their failure to beat Albania last time out is hard to forgive.

I think it’s also fair to say that manager Zlatko Dalić got it wrong. Playing Dinamo Zagreb’s Bruno Petković up top instead of Ante Budimir, who was on fire at a much better level of club football last season, was a very strange choice.

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Since Budimir came on mid-way through the second half and instantly threatened, playing a big hand in both goals, I suspect the line-up will be a little different against the Italians, but it might be too late.

At the end of the day, we know the quality that this Croatia team possesses. They’ve got some fantastically experienced players and some very good ones at that too. They beat Portugal on the eve of the tournament, so if they get it right here and play to their strengths, then they could easily get the desired result.

For Italy, things also went awry on match-day two. They were of course less desperate for three points following their opening-round win against Albania, but still, they were disappointing.

I was very much of the opinion that the Italians could push the Spanish, but when it came down to it, they were well beaten in all areas.

If we judge them purely on their efforts in Germany so far, then it’s likely fair to say that only a minor miracle would see the Italians retain their European Championships title.

Croatia vs Italy Betting tips

Looking at the early prices, I’m going to throw two darts at this fixture. Let’s see if any of them stick.

Croatia to Win

At the available odds (at the time of writing), the Croatians look a decent bet. Yes, they’ve got just one point so far and yes they failed to beat the Albanians, but they’re better suited by games of this nature.

Let’s face it over the last few years, this Croatian side has thrived in big games and this is very much a big game, so it’s time for them to rise to the occasion once more.

I thought the Italians would offer much more against the Spanish and they didn’t, and I don’t think that was solid preparation for this crunch game.

What’s more, I was much more impressed with the way the Croatians created solid chances against the Spanish. On another day, they could easily have scored two goals and possibly got a draw out of that game. After all, they came out on top in terms of xG.

In stark contrast, on another day, Italy could have lost 4-0 instead of 1-0. They were entirely non competitive against Spain, so the Croats have nothing to fear here and if they can tweak their line-up to include the very dangerous Budimir up top, then I think they’re a little overpriced to come out on top.

Ante Budimir to Score

If you happen to have been reading from the start (big if, I know), you’ll know that this is not the first time I’ve banged this particular drum, but I think there’s a tune left to be played here.

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For my money, it was absolutely criminal that Budimir didn’t start against Albania. Listen, I'm no international manager, far from it, but there’s no way Petkovic, who offered nothing, should’ve got the nod over a man who when fit terrorised LaLiga defences last season.

I’ll be stunned if Budimir isn’t in from the start here and he does begin the game, I’ll be equally stunned if he doesn’t cause the Italian back line some serious problems.

Having scored 17 LaLiga goals for Osasuna last season, averaging 0.63 goals per game, not to mention 0.53 xG per game, the big Croatian forward is worth betting on to find the net in Leipzig.