Germany vs Denmark Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

Predictably so, the tournament hosts made it through to the knockouts as group winners, but can they now shift through the gears as things get serious? Will the Danes have it in them to upset Die Mannschaft? Read on for our Germany vs Denmark predictions.

Germany vs Denmark prediction

For the Germany vs Denmark match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-0 win for Germany based on our analysis.

The Danes are not easy to get the better of, while they do have some threatening players, but they may not be properly prepared for this fixture after being far from tested in Group C, where they failed to win a game, so don’t be surprised if they come up a little short against the wily tournament hosts.

Our predictions for this knockout game between Germany and Denmark are as follows:

Robert Andrich Over 1.5 Fouls @ 6/4 with bet365
Robert Andrich to be Booked @ 3/1 with bet365
Ilkay Gundogan Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ Evens with bet365

Germany vs Denmark betting odds

According to the current betting odds, the Germans have a 62.5% chance of winning this fixture, while there is a 16.7% chance of a Denmark win.

Bet	Odds
Germany to win	3/5
Denmark to win	5/1
Draw	11/4

Using our own calculations, we’ve assigned the Germans a win probability of 63.6%, leaving the Danes with a win probability of 15.4%.

Germany vs Denmark head-to-head statistics

This will be the first time that the pair have met since 2021, when they drew 1-1 in a friendly, played in Innsbruck, Austria. In 2017, the pair also drew 1-1 in a friendly on Danish soil.

The pair last met at a major tournament back at Euro 2012, when the Germans won by two goals to one.

Germany vs Denmark preview

This match will be played on 29/06/2024 and will take place at Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund). Kick off is at 20:00 GMT.

After two games in Group A, the Germans were through and they secured safe passage to the knockouts without getting out of first gear, beating both Scotland and Hungary with ease.

However, on match-day three, for quite some time, they looked to be heading through in second place as they trailed the Swiss from minute 28 until second-half stoppage time, having their blushes saved by the increasingly reliable Niclas Fullkrug.

View post on Twitter

We probably shouldn’t read too much into the draw that was desperately salvaged against the Swiss. After all, Julian Nagelsmann’s men were on top for the majority of the contest, easily bettering their opponents in terms of shots, shots on target and xG.

My guess is that this is a German side that we’re yet to see the best of. They’ve got good options, especially offensively and are likely capable of much better, so they’ll very much fancy themselves to get the job done here.

For the Danes, it was a rather odd group campaign. They had to settle for a point against Slovenia, despite being the better team for most of the contest, while much the same can be said for their game against the Three Lions, who they outplayed for large portions.

Moreover, they were once again on top throughout against the Serbs last time out, without being able to put the finishing touches on several promising, advancing with a third straight stalemate.

On the one hand, we’re talking about a team that is clearly hard to beat, but on the other hand, this is a side that struggles to get their noses in front.

When it matters most, can they really come up with the goods offensively to topple tournament hosts? Probably not.

Germany vs Denmark Betting tips

I’m going to throw three darts at Saturday’s second knockout game, all of which focus on individuals rather than teams or the match overall.

Robert Andrich Over 1.5 Fouls

Robert Andrich is the enforcer in this German midfielder, the combative player whose industry and ragged play compliments the elegance of Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan.

His hunger to win back possession and hunt down opponents is important to Die Mannschaft, make no mistake about that, though he often draws no shortage of attention from the referee.

On the opening night against the Scots, Andrich was hooked at half time after his overzealous play meant he gave away four fouls during the first 45 minutes.

The 29-year-old calmed things down a little against Hungary, giving away just one foul, while he was unusually quiet against the Swiss, but make no mistake about it, this is a player who struggles to go long periods without crashing into tackles.

Moreover, we're on about a man who season after season comfortably averages more than one foul per game domestically, which makes odds of 6/4 look a little large to these value-seeking eyes.

Robert Andrich to be Booked

Following the same thread, I think Andrich is also slightly generously priced to get booked in this game.

Again, he’s no stranger to picking up a yellow card, already receiving one at this tournament, while he’s been booked three times in his last seven appearances for his nation.

What’s more, he;ll be up against a Denmark midfield that are confident in possession, with someone like Christian Eriksen, who likes to get on the ball and pull the strings, so it’s not as if Andrich is likely to have the quietest evening defensively.

Ilkay Gundogan Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Finally, I’m going to side with Ilkay Gundogan to register a shot on target at odds of even-money, which is perhaps ever so slightly exaggerated.

Fans of the Premier League will remember Ilkay Gundogan as a regular goal-threat for Manchester City, scoring 44 league goals between 2016 and 2023, while he’s no stranger to contributing in that sense for his nation.

View post on Twitter

As the captain, Gundogan is a key man for Germany, so he’s started three out of three so far, scoring one goal.

Not only has he scored one goal, but he’s also taken seven shots, two of which have worked the opposition keeper.

We know that he likes to get forward and shoot, from both outside and inside the box, and it would be a huge surprise if he didn’t get involved in that sense here.

Given that we’ve seen a clear willingness to shoot from the Die Mannschaft skipper seen at this tournament already, at the early odds, he looks a decent bet to register a poke on target.