Switzerland vs Italy Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

The knockout stages of Euro 2024 begin on Saturday evening and we start with the Swiss, who impressed during their Group A campaign, very nearly beating the tournament hosts. They’ll take on the Italians, who just about scraped second place in Group B. Read on for our Switzerland vs Italy predictions.

Switzerland vs Italy prediction

For the Switzerland vs Italy match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-0 win for Switzerland based on our analysis.

The Swiss looked like a very tough team to beat during the group stages and having nearly got the job done against the Germans, they could very easily go one better against an Italian side that looked there for the taking last time out.

Our predictions for the first Last 16 fixture are as follows:

Switzerland to Win @ 12/5 with bet365
Dan Ndoye Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 13/8 with bet365
Dan Ndoye to Score @ 7/1 with bet365

Switzerland vs Italy betting odds

The current betting odds suggest that the Swiss have a 29.4% chance of winning, while the Italians have a 41.7% chance of winning.

Bet	Odds
Switzerland to win	12/5
Italy to win	7/5
Draw	19/10

However, based on our own calculations, we’ve assigned a win probability of 34.8% for Switzerland and 38.1% for Italy.

Switzerland vs Italy head-to-head statistics

Familiar foes, the Swiss and the Italians have met three times in recent history, playing each other not once, not twice, but thrice back in 2021, with Italy winning 3-0 at delayed Euro 2020 tournament, before the pair drew 0-0 and 1-1 in World Cup qualifying.

Overall, there have been 21 renewals of this fixture since the pair first met back in 1924, with the Swiss winning four and the Italians winning seven.

Switzerland vs Italy preview

This match will be played on 29/06/2024 at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. Kick off is at 17:00 GMT.

The Swiss came very close to topping Group A, leading Germany with only a few minutes left on the clock in that final game.

Unfortunately, a late Niclas Fullkrug meant that Murat Yakin’s men had to settle for second place, but given the side of the draw that they’ve ended up on, they’re probably quite happy about that.

If things go well over the next week or so, the Swiss will likely be seeking out Fullkrug’s phone number to thank him.

Given that they’re on the side of the draw with England, Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Turkey and Italy, there’s little reason why the Swiss won’t fancy themselves to go deep into this tournament.

We know that Yakin’s side is well organised, they pass the ball well, have pace and power in attack, while they also have a couple of difference makers, so we should not write them off here, absolutely not.

The Italians also came through in second place, but did so by the skin of their teeth, equalising against Croatia deep into stoppage time, thanks to a superbly taken goal from substitute Mattia Zaccagni.

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After some relatively underwhelming and laboured efforts in Group B, Luciano Spalleti’s men will also be relieved to be on this side of the draw.

However, despite finding themselves in what must be described as the friendlier bracket, the Italians need to improve. They were outplayed in convincing fashion by Spain, while they were far from impressive against the Croatians last time out.

Having run the Germans close, the Swiss really will fancy themselves to upset the Italians here and as far as I’m concerned, rightly so.

Switzerland vs Italy Betting tips

I’m siding with three bets ahead of this first knockout game at Euro 2024, all of which side with the Swiss, who for my money aren’t getting the respect that they deserve in the betting.

Switzerland to Win

As touched on above, the Italians were anything but impressive during the group stages, and for me, that’s the catalyst here.

There’s plenty to like about the Swiss, sure, but even a lesser team could be fancied against this Italian bunch.

For my money, Spalletti’s men lack top-quality in the final third. Federico Chiesa has disappointed so far, while neither Mateo Retegui nor Gianluca Scamacca have looked overly threatening.

We know that they can keep the ball relatively well and take the sting out, but when push comes to shove, do they really have what it takes to grab the game by the horns and get it done against decent sides? I’d say no, they don’t.

In contrast, the Swiss have already shown that they can match top sides, drawing with the Germans last time out, while their team has a fine combination of experience, pace, power and offensive guile.

If we also look at what the pair have created and conceded so far at this tournament, it’s the Swiss that come out smelling slightly better, ending the group stages with a relatively respectable average xG difference of +0.10.

Sure, such a number doesn’t exactly suggest that they’ve blown teams away, but it shows that they’re useful at giving away slightly less than they create.

Can the same be said for the Italians? Not quite. They enter this knockout game with an average xG difference of -0.17. Again, not dreadful, but it’s a chunk worse than the Swiss, which doesn’t exactly tell me that Spalleti’s side should be sizable favourites ahead of this fixture.

On that basis, I’m concluding that the Swiss have a better chance than the early odds suggest, so taking them to win offers a slice of value for money.

Dan Ndoye Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Going down a slightly different route, the impressive Dan Ndoye, who has arguably been Switzerland's best player in Germany so far, looks a great bet to register a shot on target at early odds of 13/8 with bet365.

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The Bologna forward/winger has been a fantastic outlet for the Swiss, carrying the ball forward with purpose, while he’s been a willing runner in behind too.

Shooting with a promising regularity, Ndoye has taken a total of nine shots in three games, testing each of the last two keepers that he’s faced at least once. That’ll do for me.

Dan Ndoye to Score

As well as betting on Ndoye to register a shot on target here, I’ve got to take him to find the net at odds of 7/1.

After two solid performances, the 23-year-old got a well deserved goal against the Germans, and a very well taken one it was too.

In each of Switzerland’s three games, Ndoye has been a threat, picking up some clever forward positions, while he’s shown that he’s not afraid to pull the trigger either.

Against a German side that will push forward and leave counter-attacking space, the powerful runner will be a key threat for the Swiss on the break. Factor in that he’s produced a promising average of 0.52 xG per 90 minutes at Euro 2024 so far and odds of 7/1 must go down as too big.