Spain vs Georgia Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

The only team to pick up maximum points during the groups will be in action on Sunday as the Spanish face the surprise package of the tournament. The Georgians have been a refreshing inclusion in Germany, but is this the end of the road? Or could their journey continue? Read on for our Spain vs Georgia predictions.

Spain vs Georgia prediction

For the Spain vs Georgia match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for Spain based on our analysis.

The Spanish have looked by far the most accomplished in Germany, while they were the only ones to progress off the back of three wins. The Georgians have shown fantastic spirit and passion, and have played some good stuff, moving the ball well and with purpose, but they’re likely to be overpowered here, as was the case when the pair met twice in qualifying.

Our Spain vs Georgia predictions for this knockout clash can be found below:

Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 Assists @ 11/2 with bet365
Alvaro Morata Over 0.5 Fouls @ Evens with bet365

Spain vs Georgia betting odds

At the time of writing, the betting odds reflect a win probability of 83.3% for the Spanish, while the Georgians have a win probability of 6.7%.

Bet	Odds
Spain to win	1/5
Georgia to win	14/1
Draw	11/2

Using our own calculations, we’ve assigned a win probability of 81.8% for Spain and 8.3% for Georgia.

Spain vs Georgia head-to-head statistics

This will be the eighth renewal of this fixture. The pair met twice during Euro 2024 qualifying, with the Spanish picking up 3-1 and 1-7 wins. Six of the previous seven games between the pair have been won by Spain. Back in 2016, The Georgians recorded their first and only victory against Spain.

Spain vs Georgia preview

This match will take place on 30/06/2024 at RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne). Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

Lots of people expected the Spanish to impress in Germany and that’s exactly what they’ve done, making it through to the knockouts as the only team to win three out of three.

We’ve seen a Spanish team that has evolved, that’s for sure. Of course, La Roja still plays excellent possession football and they’re still capable of passing teams off the park, but they’re also direct and very quick to get the ball to their powerful runners.

Wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, both of whom have been an absolute nightmare to defend against, offer a frightening combination of blistering pace, trickery and end-product, and this is the key part, neither have been afraid to use the tools at their disposal.

La Roja is the only team to have advanced to the knockouts without conceding a goal, which is an achievement directly related to the fact that they’ve just got on with it and tried to outplay teams. By doing so, they’ve simply starved their opponents of chances.

The Georgians made it through in much less convincing style, but my word, did they entertain. It’s probably fair to say that most neutrals have been taken in by a Georgian team that has done anything but make up the numbers in Germany.

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At their first ever tournament, the men managed by former France player Willy Sagnol have shown a tremendous amount of passion and resilience, but they’ve not only done their nation proud by giving their all, oh no.

On top of hard-to-match passion and desire, the Georgians have played some refreshingly promising football. Yes, they’ve dug deep and got men behind the ball in an attempt to frustrate when necessary, but they’ve also looked to get forward and with purpose.

In fact, their willingness to take advantage of the space left by opposing teams, moving the ball quickly and getting forward with haste has perhaps been their best asset.

In Georges Mikautadze, who is currently the tournament top scorer, they’ve got a deadly forward, and in Kvicha Kvaratskelia they’ve got a ball carrier who can cause any team problems, plus several other very promising footballers, so even against a Spanish side that is clearly very hard to face, there are reasons for the Georgians to be optimistic.

Spain vs Georgia Betting tips

Ahead of this intriguing clash, I’m siding with two player betting angles:

Lamine Yamal Over 0.5 Assists

By now, everyone knows just how freakishly good 16-year-old Lamine Yamal is. Many youngsters, most of which are older than Yamal, get stuck with the label of ‘wonderkid’, but in this case, it’s fully warranted, and if anything, may not quite do the Barcelona boy justice.

In other words, Yamal is a fine player, one who has already made plenty of headway for Spain at this tournament, especially when dancing around the Italians, running supposed top-level players ragged on match-day two.

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Known as a man with an eye for a goal, Yamal was just as dangerous from a providing-for-others point of view for Barca last season, registering as many assists as he did goals, while he’s been looking to create for those around him in Germany too.

Yamal assisted against Croatia during the first round of group games, while at the tournament in general, he’s averaging 3.68 passes into the penalty area/final-third passes/crosses into the penalty area per game.

Here are some other assist-related stats that Yamal boasts in a Spain shirt:

Four assists in 10 appearances
Averaging 0.64 assists per 90 minutes
Averaging 0.47 expected assisted goals at Euro 2024

Everything considered, odds of 11/2 for him to provide a set-up up for one of his La Roja teammates against the Georgians simply look too big.

Alvaro Morata Over 0.5 Fouls

Much like Yamal currently carries generous odds to produce an assist in this game, fiery forward Alvaro Morata looks pleasingly priced to commit at least one foul.

Of course, Morata’s main job is to get the ball in the back of the net, which the Spanish captain has managed to do once so far in Germany, scoring against Croatia on match-day one.

However, though far from in this team to break up play, Morata is no stranger to fouling his opponents. The Atletico Madrid man has already given away four fouls at Euro 2024, averaging 2.10 fouls per game.

If we factor in that he averaged 1.55 fouls per game for Atletico in LaLiga last season, then it’s far from difficult to conclude that the early odds are in our favour here.