France vs Belgium Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

Les Bleus get back down to business on Monday evening and now things get serious for the 2018 World Cup winners, who’ll need to improve after some modest group-stage performances.

The same can be said for the Belgians, who did anything but light up the tournament during the groups. Read on for our France vs Belgium predictions.

France vs Belgium prediction

For the France vs Belgium match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for France based on our analysis.

Neither team scaled the heights during the groups, but it was the Belgians who made the much worse defensive impression, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a game against a French attack that can be very deadly.

Our France vs Belgium predictions are as follows:

France to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 6/5 with bet365
Adrien Rabiot Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 7/2 with bet365

France vs Belgium betting odds

The early betting odds imply that the French have a 52.4% chance of winning this game, implying also that the Belgians have a 31.3% chance of success.

Bet	Odds
France to win	10/11
Belgium to win	4/1
Draw	11/5

Using our own calculations, we’ve arrived at a win probability of 57.9% for France, and 28.6% for the Belgians.

France vs Belgium head-to-head statistics

This will be the first time that the pair have met since their showdown in the UEFA Nations League back in 2021, which saw the French come out on top by three goals to two. Les Bleus have won each of their last two against Belgium, who’ve won just one of their last six against France.

France vs Belgium preview

This match will be played on 01/07/2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena (Dusseldorf). Kick off will be at 17:00 GMT.

Some people may have expected the French to blow the competition away in the group stages, what with the likes of Kyian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann in their attack, but the format of this tournament doesn't really lend itself to such an approach, which is why we perhaps saw a more subdued Les Bleus.

There was a clear sense of teams just doing enough during the groups, with only one of the 24 entrants winning three out of three, and it’s probably fair to say that this French team has lots more to give.

One of the not so positives is the fact that the French have scored just two goals in Germany, none of which have come from a Frenchman in open play, with their winner against Austria going down as an own goal, before Mbappe scored from the spot on match-day three.

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On the positive end of the spectrum is the fact that the French have conceded just one goal, so they’ll probably fancy themselves to keep things relatively tight against a Belgian side that misfired during the groups.

The Red Devils were hugely underwhelming during the group stages as far as I’m concerned. They were sloppy and lacking in end product against the Slovaks on match-day one, while they also struggled to take their chances against Romania on match-day two.

For the third and final time in Group E, the Belgians huffed and puffed but ultimately lacked the offensive power to knock the Ukrainian door down on match-day three, drawing 0-0 to send themselves through in far from convincing fashion.

As is the case with many teams left in the competition, Domenico Tedesco’s men will need to improve (and quite a bit) if they’re to get serious in Germany over the next couple of weeks.

France vs Belgium Betting tips

I’ve landed on two betting plays ahead of this mouth-watering Euro 2024 fixture, both of which favour the French.

France to Score Over 1.5 Goals

We’ve not yet seen the French explode into action at this tournament, but we all know that they’ve got the tools to do real damage.

Moreover, the Belgians looked open and rather ragged at the back in their three group games. Of course, they conceded just one goal, but they’re now facing opposition of altogether different calibre, so unless they can tighten up, which I’m not sure they can, relying on players who do not ply their trade at the top level, they could be in trouble here.

I’ll keep it short and sweet, having created plenty, posting 2.41 xG against the Poles, Les Bleus look to have a slightly better chance than the early odds suggest of notching multiple goals against what looks a second rate Belgian rear guard, so this goes down as a value play as far as I’m concerned.

Adrien Rabiot Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Similarly, I think French midfielder Adrien Rabiot looks a little chunky in the betting to register a shot on target.

In a team that contains Mbappe, Dembele and Griezmann, Rabiot can often get a little overlooked, but he's very much liked by manager Deschamps, who knows the 29-year-old to be a very reliable and useful midfielder.

He is far from a regular scorer of goals, but this is a player who will get forward and join attacks, while in an open game of this nature, against attacking sides like Belgium, he’s got the tools to take advantage.

After all, Rabiot comes off the back of a season where he averaged 0.54 shots on target per game, which is a little over one shot on target every two games. That alone makes odds of 7/2, which would imply one shot every three and a half games, look on the large side.

Moreover, in qualifying for this tournament, Rabiot took an average of 2.14 shots per 90 minutes (0.71 on target), while in the last Nations League campaign, he averaged 0.93 shots on target per game, so he’s far from unlikely to pull the trigger for his nation.