Portugal vs Slovenia Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

The sixth knockout game to be played at Euro 2024 puts together Portugal and Slovenia, who will do battle in Frankfurt. Can the 2016 winners of the competition get back to winning ways after that loss to Georgia?

After going through the group stages, could the Slovenians throw a spanner in the works here and cause a sizable upset? Read on for our Portugal vs Slovenia predictions.

Portugal vs Slovenia prediction

For the Portugal vs Slovenia match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for Portugal based on our analysis.

Sure, the Portuguese lost to Georgia last time out, but I wouldn’t get too hung up on that result. After all, they were through regardless. The Slovenians have a couple of useful attackers and can get involved in that sense, but when push comes to shove, they’re unlikely to match their opponents in terms of overall quality.

See below for our Portugal vs Slovenia predictions, with analysis to follow:

Bernardo Silva Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 6/5 with bet365
Benjamin Sesko to Score @ 5/1 with bet365

Portugal vs Slovenia betting odds

According to the early betting, Portugal have a 69.2% chance of winning this game, while the Slovenians have only a 11.1% chance of winning.

Bet	Odds
Portugal to win	4/9
Slovenia to win	8/1
Draw	7/2

Using our own calculations, we’ve landed on a 71.4% win probability for the Portuguese, leaving the Slovenians with a win probability of just 10.5%.

Portugal vs Slovenia head-to-head statistics

This will be just the second renewal of this fixture. Earlier in the year, the pair played in a friendly, a friendly that saw the Slovenians come out on top with a surprise 2-0 win.

Portugal vs Slovenia preview

This match will be played on 01/07/2024 at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

The Portuguese were one of three teams to book their place in the knockouts after the first two games, both of which they won, the second of which they emerged victorious from without ever really getting out of second gear.

As is the case with a few teams, we likely haven’t seen the best of a Portugal team that has mountains of quality on paper.

Roberto Martinez’s men did receive a wake-up call in their final group game, losing to the Georgians, and even if that game was never going to stop them from qualifying, they will need to improve if they’re to have a serious crack of regaining the title that they won back in 2016.

For the Slovenians, it is perhaps a slight surprise that they’ve made the knockouts, though then again, with it seemingly easier to qualify than go out these days, perhaps not.

Either way, we’ve seen some good stuff from Slovenia in Germany so far, they’ve shown a willingness to get forward and attack, while they’ve only conceded two goals, looking far from all over the place at the back.

In their final group game, they ground out a 0-0 draw against a hugely underwhelming England team, which probably isn’t ideal preparation for the onslaught that they’re likely to face here, but at the very least, that clean sheet will give them the confidence that they put up a fight in Frankfurt.

Portugal vs Slovenia Betting tips

As has often been the case at this tournament, the value (as I see it) lies with a couple of player bets. Here goes:

Bernardo Silva Over 0.5 Shots on Target

At odds of 6/5 with bet365, Portugal’s Bernardo Silva looks nicely priced to register a shot on target.

The Manchester City man has already scored in Germany, while he’s looked a threat in general, showing a clear willingness to cut in and get shots off.

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Regular Premier League observers will know that Silva is an offensive threat. Last season, Silva scored six league goals for the champions, averaging 1.19 shots per 90 minutes.

In a Portugal shirt, during qualifying, Silva also averages 1.61 shots on target per game, while that average has risen to 2.00 per 90 minutes at Euro 2024. Such stats make odds of 6/5 look very chunky indeed if you ask me.

Benjamin Sesko to Score

Anyone who has read any of the previous previews involving Slovenia will know that I’m a big fan of Benjamin Sesko, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ve got to be on him to find the net here.

I know, I know, this is a bet that I’ve placed (without success) more than once in Germany, but the lively striker once again looks generously priced, so he’s hard to avoid as far as I’m concerned.

Despite not scoring, Sesko has offered a clear threat and it’s pretty clear that he’s the focal point of the Slovenia attack. He’s very much a threat in the box, even if the Slovenians have sometimes struggled to provide the big man with ample service, while (and this is key) he’s no stranger to shooting from range, often to good effect.

He crashed the post from range against Denmark, and went close with another effort from distance, while he forced a fine save from the Serbian keeper on match-day two, when again pulling the trigger from outside of the box. That sort of ability could easily pay dividends here, while he’ll be a threat on the break too.

After all, this is a man who knows how to score goals in Germany, notching 16 in all competitions for RB Leipzig last season, scoring an average of 0.83 goals per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga. Such stats have me licking my lips at the prospect of being on the goal-getter at 5/1 here.