Spain vs Germany Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

The quarter-finals of Euro 2024 begin on Friday and what better way to begin than with a fixture worthy of a final. This match sees arguably the two best teams in the tournament go head-to-head in Stuttgart.

Spain vs Germany prediction

For the Spain vs Germany match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.

Both teams have impressed at this tournament, with neither giving much away, so don’t be surprised if this is a closely-run thing that ultimately goes right down to the wire.

Our predictions for Spain vs Germany are as follows:

Pedri Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 6/4 with bet365
Robin Le Normand to be Booked @ 3/1 with bet365

Spain vs Germany betting odds

The early betting ahead of this game implies that the Spanish have a 38.1% chance of success, while it also implies that the probability of a German win stands at 36.4%.

Bet	Odds
Spain to win	13/8
Germany to win	7/4
Draw	11/5

Using our own calculations, we more or less agree with the early here having assigned a 38.5% win probability for the Spanish, giving the Germans a 35.7% chance.

Spain vs Germany head-to-head statistics

These two nations are no strangers to playing each other. This will be the fifth renewal of this fixture in the last decade. Three of those five games have ended all-square, while both the Spanish and the Germans have picked up one win each.

When the teams last met, they drew 1-1 during the group stages of the World Cup back in 2022.

Spain vs Germany preview

This match will be played on 05/07/2024 at MHPArena in Stuttgart. Kick off will be at 17:00 GMT.

The Spanish continued to motor along at Euro 2024 with a very convincing win against the Georgians during the round of 16, winning by four goals to one.

Despite an early scare, going behind after just 18 minutes, when Robin Le Normand inadvertently struck the ball into his own net, La Roja delivered a commanding and utterly dominant performance.

Having played four games in Germany, the Spanish look like a team that is going to be very hard for anybody to face, so even up against the tournament hosts, it’s not overly difficult to see them doing well.

Of course, the Germans have looked very strong too. After all, they’re playing on home soil, and as expected, they too look like a team that is going to be tricky to get the better of.

Having won their group without too much of a fuss, besides requiring a late equaliser against the Swiss on match-day three, they came through what was a relatively rigorous test against the Danes last time out.

While the Spanish ran riot, Julian Nagelsmann’s men had to work hard to beat the Danes, getting the job done thanks to two second half goals from Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala, who continues to look like the key danger men for Die Mannschaft.

Spain vs Germany Betting tips

Ahead of this mouthwatering clash, I’m siding with two player-focused bets. Let’s get stuck in.

Pedri Over 0.5 Shots on Target

For my money, Pedri is being a little overlooked by the early market here. While much of the focus is on Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, Pedri is not a player to forget about in a shooting sense.

The Barcelona midfielder is no stranger to getting forward and taking shots, especially from outside of the box, while he’s also adept and running into very advanced positions and getting on the end of things, as he did early on when shooting on target against Georgia last time out.

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For La Roja at this tournament, we’ve seen the youngster pick up more advanced positions than he typically does when pulling the strings for Barcelona, while he’s been shooting more frequently too.

So far Pedri has averaged 2.51 shots per game at Euro 2024, averaging 1.51 shots on target. Having tested the keeper twice against Italy and then once against Georgia, registering three shots on target in his last two matches, I’m betting on him to do so against the Germans at what must go down as generous odds given the data.

Robin Le Normand to be Booked

Another bet that looks shall we say user-friendly from an odds point of view is ‘Robin Le Normand to be Booked’.

The Real Sociedad defender picked up a card against Italy and hasn’t been booked since, but he’s not exactly avoided giving fouls away in general at this tournament, making an average of 2.28 fouls per game.

This is also a player who often finds it tough to avoid picking up a yellow, picking up 13 yellow cards for Sociedad last season, averaging 0.47 cards per 90 minutes.

He didn’t have too much defending to do last time out, but things will be different here in what is a much more high-pressure game for the Spanish, so don’t be surprised to see this serial offender get his name taken. At odds of 3/1, it’s worth betting that he does just that.