Netherlands vs Turkey Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

The last of the four quarter-final ties takes place on Saturday evening, when the Netherlands and Turkey will clash at Olympiastadion in the German capital of Berlin.

As they're both on the seemingly less demanding side of the draw, each of these teams will likely see this as a huge opportunity to go one step closer to a final of a major tournament. Read on for our Netherlands vs Turkey predictions.

Netherlands vs Turkey prediction

For the Netherlands vs Turkey match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 3-1 win for the Netherlands based on our analysis.

In what was arguably the best last-16 match, the Turks dug deep to get the job done, but they certainly rode their luck and didn’t look too secure at the back, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a game against a Netherlands team that offers lots offensively.

See below for our Netherlands vs Turkey predictions:

Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score @ 5/4 with bet365
Hakan Calhanoglu Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 11/8 with bet365
Kenan Yildiz to be Booked @ 4/1 with bet365

Netherlands vs Turkey betting odds

According to the early betting, the Netherlands have a 63.6% implied chance of success in this game, while the Turks have a 16.7% winning chance.

Bet	Odds
Netherlands to win	4/7
Turkey to win	5/1
Draw	3/1

Using our own calculations, we believe that there’s a 65.2% chance that the Dutch win this game, with the Turks having a 15.4% chance of success.

Netherlands vs Turkey head-to-head statistics

The pair met twice back in World Cup qualifying back in 2021, with the Turks winning by four goals to two in Istanbul, before the Dutch got their revenge and won 6-1 in Amsterdam.

The last five renewals of this fixture, the first of which was played in 2013, have produced two Dutch wins, two Turkish wins and a draw.

Netherlands vs Turkey preview

This match will be played on 06/07/2024 at Olympiastadion in Berlin. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

We didn’t quite get to see the best of the Dutch during the groups, that’s probably fair to say. Sure, they delivered moments of clear offensive promise when beating the Poles by two goals to one on match-day one, while they also looked good in patches against the French.

Spurned chances cost them against the Austrians, and they didn’t exactly look the most clinical side when beating Romania convincingly last time out.

However, we saw a team that can dominate against underdogs in that game against Romania, while they created lots of chances, which bodes well ahead of a game against a Turkish side that still looks quite open to attack.

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Sure, the Turks battled immensely hard against the Austrians last time out, showing no shortage of bite, while they looked a clear threat from set pieces. In the likes of Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu, they have some creative players who can definitely turn a game.

However, they continued to give up lots of chances, which is worrying, given that this is a Dutch team with plenty of offensive quality.

Make no mistake about it, this Turkey team has a fantastically vocal following, which arguably saw them over the line against Austria, but we’ve seen that the Dutch have fantastic fan backing in Germany too, while they arguably have that little bit extra in terms of real final-third quality, especially with Cody Gakpo seemingly firing on all cylinders.

Netherlands vs Turkey Betting tips

As the Netherlands and Turkey go head-to-head in what should be a very entertaining game, I’m once again taking three stabs in the betting.

Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

As far as I’m concerned, if there’s a quarter-final that has goals written all over it, then it’s this one.

We saw during the last round that the Dutch were happy to attack. They’re more than happy to get on the front foot and go toe-to-toe with their opponents. Such an approach yielded much offensive success against a rather toothless Romanian team, but it could also see them come a little unstuck at times defensively in this one.

We know that this Turkey team carries a threat, they’ve proved that, but they’ve also proved that they’re unlikely to shut up shop, keeping no clean sheets. They also surrendered a rather sizable 2.73 xG against Austria last time out.

The Turks have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games already, with each of their four Euro 2024 matches containing three goals, while both teams have scored in three of those four.

Hakan Calhanoglu Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Both Kenan Yildiz and Arda Guler have looked like dangerous players for the Turks, but if there’s one Turkish player who brings real, tangible final-third quality, whether that’s in the form of a shot or a key pass, it’s Hakan Calhanoglu.

Calhanoglu’s long-range shooting ability and delivery have long been feared in Serie A and with good reason, as the man who has played for each of Milan’s biggest clubs has a deadly right foot.

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He scored a key goal for his team against the Czech’s in that final group game, while we know he likes to shoot, shooting eight times in three games at Euro 2024, averaging 0.68 shots on target.

Arriving fresher than most having missed the last game through suspension, Turkey’s captain and talisman will be hungry to lead by example here and he can do that by going for goal. For my money, he’s worth betting on to work the keeper at least once.

Kenan Yildiz to be Booked

Kenan Yildiz has shown some clear offensive qualities at this tournament, so much so that it’s not surprising that he’s considered to be an up-and-comer for Italian giants Juventus, but he’s also looked a little rash when things don’t go his way.

This is a game where the Turkish winger could be tasked with doing lots of defending, and I’m not sure he wants to be doing that. For my money, he’s looked every inch a player who’ll resort to cheap and silly fouls when the going gets tough, so he looks a little overpriced to pick up a booking here.

The 19-year-old has already received a booking in Germany, while he picked up three cards for Juventus last season, despite only making ten appearances.