Spain vs France Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

Four teams remain. We’ve reached the semi-finals, the first of which will take place on Tuesday evening in the city of Munich, where the Spanish take on the French.

Can the Spanish continue to impress? Will the French finally score a goal from open play? All will be revealed at Allianz Arena. Read on for our Spain vs France predictions.

Spain vs France prediction

For the Spain vs France match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 1-1 draw based on our analysis.

It is the Spanish who’ve undoubtedly created the better impression in Germany, but neither team showed a willingness to really go for it last time out, so we shouldn’t be surprised if this turns out to be a cagey and ultimately close affair.

See below for our Spain vs France predictions:

Nico Williams Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 11/8 with bet365
Antoine Griezmann Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 5/4 with bet365

Spain vs France betting odds

The betting odds (at the time of writing) point towards the Spanish having a 38.5% chance of winning this fixture, while the French have a win probability of 32.3%.

Bet	Odds
Spain to win	8/5
France to win	21/10
Draw	15/8

Using our own calculations, we believe the probability of a Spain win to be 42.1%, giving the French a winning chance of 30.8%.

Spain vs France head-to-head statistics

This will be the first renewal of this fixture since 2021, when the pair met in the UEFA Nations League. On that occasion, the French won by two goals to one, courtesy of a late goal from Kylian Mbappe.

Each team has won two of the four renewals of this fixture since 2013. The pair haven’t met at a major tournament since France beat Spain back at Euro 2000, when the legendary Raul famously missed a last-ditch penalty to level the game.

Spain vs France preview

This match will take place on 09/07/2024 at Allianz Arena in Munich. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

For most people with eyes, it won’t be difficult to conclude that the Spanish have been just about the best of the bunch at Euro 2024, though that doesn’t say much, as in terms of entertainment and excitement, the bar has been rather low.

La Roja advanced from the group stages as the only team with maximum points having got on the front foot and hurt teams as opposed to merely sitting off and saving themselves, while they ran riot during the first knockout game too.

That high-scoring win against the Georgians, set up a mouthwatering tie against the Germans, which was tense, and close, but the Spanish just about got the job done, emerging victorious thanks to a late goal from Mikel Merino.

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It’s probably fair to say that Luis de la Fuente’s men were a little more reserved against the Germans, but they still got forward with purpose, threatening way more than most teams at this tournament, through the direct duo of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams.

While the Spanish have dazzled at times, the French have done little to impress. Les Bleus were rather reserved during the groups, opting for an efficient rather than an impressive style.

Since emerging from Group C in second place thanks to a win and two draws, the men managed by Didier Deschamps have continued to stroll along. Sure, they look tough to beat, while they’ve clearly got quality in all areas, but they’ve certainly not wowed onlookers, far from it.

Five games into their German journey and the French are yet to score a goal from open play, which let’s face it, is rather pitiful. I know, I know, they're in the final four and have “got the job done”, but no goal from open play in five games? That’s not exactly what the doctor ordered ahead of a game against very strong opposition.

Spain vs France Betting tips

Looking at the current betting, at the time of writing, there are two player bets that appeal from a potential value point of view.

Nico Williams Over 0.5 Shots on Target

In a tournament full of drudgery, Nico Williams has brought some much needed excitement, with his full throttle approach.

The speedy winger/forward has lit up the stadiums that he’s played in so far, causing opposition defences no shortage of issues.

For my money, Athletic Club’s key man shouldn’t be so leniently priced to register a shot on target in this game. In fact, he probably won’t be come kick off in Munich, so we should act early, and here’s why:

Williams hasn’t always shot with accuracy at this tournament, but the key is he’s been shooting with regularity. The 21-year-old has taken at least one shot in each of his last three matches, shooting no less than eight times at the Euros so far, averaging a chunky 2.43 shots per game.

He’s also averaging 0.58 shots on target per 90 minutes, which for me, makes odds of 11/8 look a little large. If you ask me, with the youngster hitting the target somewhere near once every two games, odds of even-money would be a little closer to accurate, so taking 11/8 (bet365) is worthwhile.

Antoine Griezmann Over 0.5 Shots on Target

Another player who appeals from a shot on target viewpoint is France’s talismanic Antoine Griezmann.

When it comes to Les Blues, ever since 2018, Kylian Mbappe has been the one that people look to, but Griezmann is every bit as important to this side, make no mistake about that.

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As the French have huffed and puffed without blowing much down, Griezmann has been one of the more positive players, and he’s certainly tried to make things happen in the final third.

It may not have come off for the LaLiga forward in terms of goals or assists, but he’s been far from shot shy, taking at least one shot in each of his five appearances at this tournament.

In fact, in only two of those five games has Griezmann failed to shoot more than once, taking a total of 11 shots at the tournament, averaging 2.71 shots per game.

What’s more, the man who has surprisingly maintained the same hairstyle all the way through this tournament has taken an average of 0.99 shots on target per 90 minutes in Germany. On that basis, odds of 5/4 are just too big and absolutely worth taking.