Spain vs England Euro 2024 prediction, tips, preview

Despite failing to impress for much of the tournament, the English have reached a second straight European Championships final. On Sunday night in Berlin, Gareth Southgate’s men will take on Spain, the 2008 and 2012 winners of the competition.

Have the Three Lions saved their best for last? Can they get over the line? Or have they dangled the carrot only to pull it away and disappoint at the last moment? All will be revealed at the Olympiastadion in the German capital of Berlin.

Spain vs England prediction

For the Spain vs England match prediction, we believe the final score will be a 2-1 win for Spain based on our analysis.

As many fans hoped, the Three Lions did improve against the Dutch, especially in the first half as they looked to impose themselves more than before, but they still looked shaky at the back at times, while they struggled to press home their advantage, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a game against a dominant and clinical Spanish side.

Our predictions for the Euro 2024 final between Spain and England are as follows:

Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals @ 6/4 with bet365
Nico Williams to Score Or Assist @ 9/4 with bet365
Nico Williams to be Booked @ 11/2 with bet365

Spain vs England betting odds

For the first time at Euro 2024, the English go into a game as outsiders. At the time of writing, the betting suggests that the Spanish have 42.1% probability of winning this game inside 90 minutes.

The betting also points towards the Three Lions having a 28.6% chance of success in regulation time.

Bet	Odds
Spain to win	11/8
England to win	5/2
Draw	15/8

Using our own calculations, we’ve given Spain a 44.4% chance of winning the game inside normal time, while we believe England to have a 27.8% chance of normal-time success.

We also have the draw priced at 13/5, which equates to a probability of 27.8%.

Spain vs England head-to-head statistics

This will be the first time that the English have played the Spanish since 2018, when the Three Lions won by three goals to two in a UEFA Nations League game in Seville. Also in 2018, in the same competition, Spain won by two goals to one at Wembley.

The last five renewals of this fixture have produced two Spain wins, two England wins and a draw. This will be the first time that the nations have met at a major tournament since Euro 1996, when England emerged victorious after a penalty shootout.

Spain vs England preview

This match will be played on 14/07/2024 at Berlin’s Olympiastadion. Kick off will be at 20:00 GMT.

From the word go in Germany this summer, the Spanish have looked like a team capable of getting their hands on the trophy, so it’s not surprising that they’ve reached the final.

Besides being pushed to extra time by the Germans, the men in red have never really looked in danger of going out. Even though their win over the French was a narrow one (2-1), it always felt like they had a strong enough grip on the game, performing as if they could easily go up a gear if necessary.

In every sense, this Spanish team has been the best of the bunch in Germany. They’ve created the most, they’ve scored the most, they’ve looked the most dangerous in wide areas, while they’ve also managed games better than anyone else.

To be honest, if we’re being completely unbiased and judging each side on what we’ve seen so far at this tournament, then La Roja are very hard to go against here.

For the English, this will be a first ever major tournament final on foreign soil. Gareth Southgate’s men will be hoping for a case of beginner’s luck, but it’s probably fair to say that they’ll need to deliver their best performance for a while to topple this Spanish lot.

View post on Twitter

We’ve seen that the Three Lions are very good at taking the sting out of games and grinding it out, while we saw an ounce more in terms of creativity and ferocity in the final third against the Dutch.

The big question is this: having shown a clear preference for containment and keeping it steady, can the English really do enough to get the better of a Spain team that can cause problems for anyone? My guess would be no, they can’t.

The overall effort against the Dutch should be applauded, and yes, at times, the Three Lions showed more in the final third, but they still failed to create for the most part, posting a modest xG total of 1.31. Their best effort of the tournament in that sense.

The Spanish have created more (and often considerably more) than England’s best effort of 1.31 expected goals in five of their six games at this tournament.

Now, xG is frowned upon by many, which is fine, but as far as I’m concerned, it goes a long way to confirming the notion that this Spain team is much more threatening than England, which is not something to ignore.

Spain vs England Betting tips

All round, as far as individual match bets go, it’s been a promising and profitable tournament, regardless of what happens in this match, but it would be great to finish on a high by landing a few more winners. Here goes.

Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals

The Spanish have been the most creative team at the tournament, there’s no getting away from that. They’re also the top scorers, scoring a total of 13 goals, scoring two or more goals (in normal time) in two out of three during the knockouts.

The English are yet to concede more than once in a single game at Euro 2024, but they could be in trouble here, especially as we’re talking about a team that has produced an average of 1.81 expected goals per game, scoring an average of 2.00 goals per game (excluding extra time).

Again, xG means little to many, I know, but for me, in this case, it plays an important role in helping to conclude that odds of 6/4 are a bit generous.

Nico Williams to Score or Assist

Lamine Yamal has grabbed many of the headlines at this tournament, and rightly so, as he’s arguably been the best of the lot.

However, Nico Williams is not far behind in that respect. The tricky and pacey wide man has caused defences all manner of problems and I for one am expecting him to make significant headway in this final.

View post on Twitter

Against the Dutch, we saw that the Three Lions are vulnerable to the break at times. It was simply that the men in Orange didn’t really have the pace or the conviction in the right areas to take advantage, but Williams isn’t lacking in either of those areas, so we really shouldn’t be surprised if he causes lots of problems for Southgate’s defenders here.

The 21-year-old currently has one goal and one assist to his name, both of which came in the same game, but he really has been hugely threatening each and every time that he's stepped on the pitch, so much so that odds of 9/4 are just a little over the top.

If such a price remains available by the time this game is minutes from kick off, I’ll be slightly stunned, so get in early.

Nico Williams to be Booked

I’m also going to have a bit on Williams to receive a booking. The winger is yet to get his name taken by a referee at this tournament, but he’s no stranger to giving away fouls, and if he has to do some defending against Bukayo Saka in this game, he could finally go into the book.

Given that Williams, for all he’s likely to cause lots of problems offensively, will likely be tasked with covering and defending against Saka at times, coupled with the fact that he’s committed six fouls at Euro 2024, averaging 1.33 per 90 minutes, is he generously priced to be shown a yellow? I’d say so.

After all, the Bilbao man is no stranger to being booked, receiving six yellows in LaLiga last season, averaging 0.24 cards per game.