Premier League relegation odds 2024/25: do newly promoted teams typically survive?

A new season will soon be upon us, which means that three new teams will battle it out in what is often dubbed as “the best league in the world”.

Can any of the newbies survive? Will we see one, two or maybe even all three of them flounder and drop back into the Championship at the first time of asking?

The not so distant future will answer these questions, but before that happens, we’re going to look at what recent history tells us about newly promoted teams in the Premier League.

Do newly promoted teams typically survive?

We all know that it’s tough at the top. The Premier League is largely about money, in that the biggest spenders, especially in terms of wage bills, typically do the best in terms of points collected and final league position.

Therefore, it’s always going to be tough for team’s coming up from the Championship to compete, especially in their first season.

The question is do newly promoted teams typically survive? As soon as I started to think about this, as many fans would, I began to recall newly promoted teams going down in recent times, but what are the percentages? What’s the full picture?

It turns out that less newcomers than I thought go straight back down. At least in recent times.

At the end of the 2023/24 campaign, each of the three promoted teams went straight back down, but the year before, none of the promoted teams were relegated, with Nottingham Forest, AFC Bournemouth and Fulham all surviving.

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As you’ll see from the table below, newcomers do fairly well, with at least one newly promoted typically side avoiding relegation.

We’ll look at this in greater depth below, but first let’s glance at the relegation odds for the Premier League season that is soon to begin.

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Premier League relegation odds 2024/45

Before we go any further, here are the current relegation odds for the 2024/25 Premier League campaign:

The table below only shows the ten most likely teams to get relegated according to the odds available at the time of writing.

Team	Relegation odds
Leicester City	8/15
Ipswich Town	8/11
Southampton	11/8
Everton	9/4
Nottingham Forest	5/3
Wolverhampton Wanderers	4/1
Brentford	5/1
Fulham	6/1
Crystal Palace	9/1
Bournemouth	10/1

As we can see from the betting (roughly three weeks before the start of the season), the three promoted teams are considered to be the most likely to drop out of the top division, with Leicester currently in as the favourites for the drop, despite coming up as winners of the Championship.

The early market also shows that there is clear preference for the three promoted teams as far as relegation is concerned. If the early betting is anything to go by, Southampton are the least likely of those who recently won promotion to re-enter the Football League at odds of 11/8. The next most likely is Everton at 9/4 (Betfred).

How promoted teams have fared in recent years

Let’s look at how promoted teams have performed since 2010, looking at where they finished in the league, how many wins they achieved and how many points they picked up.

Season	Promoted teams	Final position	Number of wins	Final points total
2023/24	Luton, Burnley, Sheffield United	18th, 19th, 20th	6, 5, 3	26, 24, 16
2022/23	Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest	10th, 15th, 16th	15, 11, 9	52, 39, 38
2021/22	Brentford, Watford, Norwich	13th, 19th, 20th	13, 6, 5	46, 23, 22
2020/21	Leeds, Fulham, West Brom	9th, 18th, 19th	18, 5, 5	59, 28, 26
2019/20	Sheffield United, Aston Villa, Norwich	9th, 17th, 20th	14, 9, 5	54, 35, 21
2018/19	Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham	7th, 18th, 19th	16, 10, 7	57, 34, 26
2017/18	Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield	10th, 15th, 16th	12, 9, 9	44, 40, 37
2016/17	Burnley, Hull City, Middlesbrough	16th, 18th, 19th	11, 9, 5	40, 34, 28
2015/16	Watford, Bournemouth, Norwich	13th, 16th, 19th	12, 11, 9	45, 42, 34
2014/15	Leicester, Burnley, QPR	14th, 19th, 20th	11, 7, 8	41, 33, 30
2013/14	Crystal Palace, Hull City, Cardiff City	11th, 16th, 20th	13, 10, 7	45, 37, 30
2012/13	West Ham, Southampton, Reading	10th, 14th, 19th	12, 9, 6	46, 41, 28
2011/12	Swansea, Norwich, QPR	11th, 12th, 17th	12, 12, 10	47, 47, 37
2010/11	West Brom, Newcastle, Blackpool	11th, 12th, 19th	12, 11, 10	47, 46, 39
2009/10	Birmingham, Wolves, Burnley	9th, 15th, 18th	13, 9, 8	50, 38, 30

This table shows us that plenty of newly promoted teams avoid relegation at the first time of asking. In fact, in only one of the last 15 seasons have all three promoted teams gone straight back down.

In nine of those 15 seasons, at least two of the three teams entering the league kept themselves alive, finishing 17th or higher.

What does history say for those lacking in Premier League experience?

We’ve looked at all promoted teams above, but what about those teams without any sort of recent experience? What does the picture look like for those teams gaining promotion to the Premier League either for the first time or the first time in a long time?

Relegation and promotion from the Premier League is often something of a merry-go-round. In other words, it’s often the same clubs coming and going.

However, every now and then, we get a complete newcomer, or at the very least, a club that hasn’t graced the highest level of the English game for many years. For example, more than five years. This is what we’re looking at here.

The table below shows how these teams (either first-time Premier League teams or teams that have been out of the league for five or more years) fared in their first season after promotion.

The table details whether it’s their first time in the division or not, when they last played in the league, where they finished, how many games they won, and how many points they collected.

Season	Promoted teams	Years since last in PL	Final position	Relegated?	Number of wins	Final points total
2023/24	Luton	First time	18th	Yes	6	26
2022/23	Nottingham Forest	20 years	16th	No	9	38
2021/22	Brentford	First time	13th	No	13	46
2020/21	Leeds United	16 years	9th	No	18	59
2019/20	Sheffield United	12 years	9th	No	14	54
2018/19	Wolves	6 years	7th	No	16	57
2017/18	Brighton	First time	15th	No	9	40
2017/18	Huddersfield	First time	16th	No	9	37
2016/17	Middlesbrough	7 years	19th	Yes	5	28
2015/16	Bournemouth	First time	16th	No	11	42
2014/15	Leicester City	First time	14th	No	11	41
2013/14	Cardiff City	First time	20th	Yes	7	30
2013/14	Crystal Palace	8 years	11th	No	13	45
2012/13	Southampton	7 years	14th	No	9	41
2011/12	Norwich City	6 years	12th	No	12	47
2011/12	Swansea City	First time	11th	No	12	47
2010/11	Blackpool	First time	19th	Yes	10	39
2009/10	Burnley	First time	18th	Yes	8	30

The table above refers to the Premier League only. In other words “first time” means that the club hasn’t previously played in the Premier League, which started in 1992. Some of the clubs listed as making their first Premier League appearance had previously played in the old first division.

Interestingly, as the table above shows, it’s far from a given that teams promoted either for the first or promoted for the first time in more than five years go straight back down.

In fact, only five of 17 such teams exited the league at the first time of asking. However, not all of the others thrived. Only three of the last 17 finished inside the top half, with seven finishing 16th or lower.

The average number of points collected by a team promoted to the Premier League for either the first time ever or the first time in more than five years since 2010 is 43.9.

Interestingly, 43.9 points would be enough to avoid relegation from the Premier League in every season since the league first contained 20 teams in 1995.

Recap - Do newly promoted teams typically survive?

It’s probably fair to say that we tend to expect the worst when it comes to newly promoted teams, but perhaps we shouldn’t.

We’ve established above that lots of teams not only survive but do very well immediately after promotion.

Even teams entering the league for either the first time or the first time in more than five years can perform well. In fact, more often than not, those teams beat the drop, with a chunky 70.58% avoiding relegation since 2010.

Only one of the last eight of these teams went straight back down and that was Luton last season.

Given these numbers, if you fancy newcomers Ipswich Town to impress and, at the very least, avoid relegation this time around, then perhaps you shouldn’t shy away from it. After all, recent history is on your side.