Championship Promotion Odds 2024/25: Does going close last season mean promotion now?

We’re now very close to the start of the 2024/25 Championship season. Less than a week away from the first ball being kicked in fact.

Ahead of the new season, we’ve looked at a few different angles, but there’s still time to explore a few more.

In this article, we’re looking at how recent promotion winners fared in the previous season to see whether or not there’s a correlation between going close to promotion before getting promoted the following season.

Does going close last time mean promotion now?

What is going close when it comes to promotion? Well, I can only assume that different people will have different ideas on this.

For me, going close can be classed as a team that either failed in the play-offs, or narrowly failed to reach the play-offs, finishing one or two points away in either seventh or eighth.

The question is do teams often go close and then follow up by securing promotion in the next season? The simple answer is, yes, that quite often happens.

In eight of the last nine Championship seasons, at least one team that finished between third and sixth (without going up) in the previous season has secured promotion, showing that there is something of a correlation between doing very well one year and then going up the next.

More on this below, but let's first look at the betting market for promotion ahead of the soon-to-begin 2024/25 Championship season.

Betfred 4.8	BoyleSports 4.5	Betway UK 4.2
Welcome Bonus Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets	Welcome Bonus Bet £10 & Get £20 in Free Bets + Get paid out early if your team goes 1 goal ahead	Welcome Bonus Get £10 in Free Bets
Claim Offer	Claim Offer	Claim Offer
New customers only. Register with BETFRED50. Deposit £10+via Debit Card and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs apply.	18+. New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Account & Payment method restrictions apply. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. T&Cs Apply. 18+. Applies to bets placed on 1 Goal Ahead market. Get paid out as a winner if your team takes the lead, even if they draw or lose. 90 mins only. Applies to Singles & Multiples. Account & payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.	*New customers only. This offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. Min Deposit: £10. Free Bet awarded: £10. 1 x £10 must be wagered at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Debit Card deposits only (exclusions apply). Free bet will expire 7 days after the 1st deposit. 18+. GambleAware.org. Bet The Responsible Way. Full Terms apply.

Championship 2024/25 promotion odds

Before we go any further, let's take a quick look at the current (as of 05/08/2024) promotion odds ahead of the new season.

Team to be promoted	Odds
Leeds United	11/10
Burnley	11/5
Luton Town	10/3
Middlesbrough	4/1
Coventry City	5/1
Sheffield United	5/1
West Bromwich Albion	11/2
Norwich City	11/2
Stoke City	15/2
Hull City	8/1
Sunderland	8/1
Sheffield Wednesday	10/1
QPR	10/1
Portsmouth	14/1
Derby County	14/1
Watford	16/1
Blackburn Rovers	16/1
Bristol City	18/1
Preston North End	20/1
Cardiff City	20/1
Plymouth Argyle	40/1
Oxford United	40/1

Where did recently promoted teams finish the season before they went up?

Let’s look at how recent promotion winners have fared in the previous season. The table below shows the three teams promoted from the Championship in each of the last 14 seasons, detailing where they finished the season before going up.

It’s worth noting that the previous season position has only been recorded for teams that played in the Championship during the season before they won promotion.

If a team went up having either been in League One or the Premier League in the previous season, then their league position has not been recorded, as it’s not relevant to the purpose of this article.

Season	Promotion winners	Previous season position (if in Championship)
2023/24	Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton	N/A, N/A, N/A
2022/23	Burnley, Sheffield United, Luton	N/A, 5th, 6th
2021/22	Fulham, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest	N/A, 6th, 17th
2020/21	Norwich, Watford, Brentford	N/A, N/A, 3rd
2019/20	Leeds, West Brom, Fulham	3rd, 4th, N/A
2018/19	Norwich, Sheffield United, Aston Villa	14th, 10th, 4th
2017/18	Wolves, Cardiff, Fulham	15th, 12th, 6th
2016/17	Newcastle, Brighton, Huddersfield	N/A, 3rd, 19th
2015/16	Burnley, Middlesbrough, Hull	N/A, 4th, N/A
2014/15	Bournemouth, Watford, Norwich	10th, 13th, N/A
2013/14	Leicester, Burnley, QPR	6th, 11th, N/A
2012/13	Cardiff, Hull, Crystal Palace	6th, 8th, 17th
2011/12	Reading, Southampton, West Ham	5th, N/A, N/A
2010/11	QPR, Norwich, Swansea	13th, N/A, 7th

What have we learned? Well, it’s definitely fair to say that many teams go on to win promotion having enjoyed a promising campaign the season directly before going up.

Last season was something of an anomaly with two teams relegated from the Premier League and one team promoted from League One filling the three promotion places.

Prior to the 2023/24 season, for eight seasons on the bounce, at least one team was promoted having finished between sixth and third in the previous campaign. This shows us that it’s far from irregular that a team does really well, before building on that promise by securing promotion the following year.

If we go back further, starting from the 2010/11 campaign, then we can see that 15 teams won promotion having finished seventh or higher in the previous season.

Since the 2010/11 season, 25 teams have won promotion to the Premier League having played in the Championship the previous season. This means that a rather chunky 60% of all teams promoted from the Championship in the last 14 seasons finished seventh or better in the previous campaign.

Where’s the bet?

I’ve already put up Middlesbrough to win promotion this season, but I’m going to use this opportunity to drive that point home.

Having finished eighth last season, I think Boro fit the bill here too. OK, they didn’t finish top six, but they were only four points shy of the play-offs, so I’m classing that as going relatively close.

View post on Twitter

I really do think that Michael Carrick’s men are well poised to attack the promotion places this season.

They’ve retained their best players, and as touched on when writing about eye-catching Championship transfers, they’ve made some very good acquisitions.

Factor in that they’ve got a serious goalscorer in Emmanuel Latte Lath and they really do look good.

For my money, there are teams priced similarly that don’t seem to have as many pieces of the jigsaw as Boro do, so as far as I’m concerned, odds of 4/1 are well worth taking advantage of.